UFC 306 — Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Five biggest storylines to watch for debut at the Sphere

The most expensive, ambitious and theatrical UFC pay-per-view card in the promotion’s 31-year history takes place on Saturday when UFC 306 invades The Sphere in Las Vegas. 

The 10-fight card, which UFC CEO Dana White reported has already cost the promotion more than double in initial $8 million budget, will be part of UFC’s continued push to take over the traditional Mexican holidays in Las Vegas that are typically associated with PPV boxing. 

This weekend, amid Mexican Independence Day festivities, UFC will go head-to-head with boxing’s biggest star, Canelo Alvarez, who headlines his own PPV event from down the road at T-Mobile Arena against Edgar Berlanga. 

As we draw closer to one of the biggest weekends in combat sports in recent memory, let’s take a closer look at the biggest storylines surrounding the UFC’s groundbreaking event. 

1. Has the UFC bitten off more than it can chew with The Sphere? 

That’s the biggest question echoing from the podcasts and social media accounts of UFC’s biggest critics after White spent most of 2024 promising that UFC 306 will be the most elaborate event in MMA history. On one hand, one must salute the ambition of White and company considering The Sphere just opened last September as a futuristic entertainment venue that has housed concerts involving the likes of Dead and Company, U2 and Phish but has yet to host a combat sports event, let alone a PPV extravaganza that will air live across the globe. The proof, ultimately, will be in the pudding for UFC in its ambitious challenge of translating such an immersive entertainment experience through the lens of a television camera while trying to simultaneously juggle entertaining fights amid interspersed movies telling the history of fighting in the nation of Mexico. Fight fans simply haven’t seen White this dialed in to an MMA event in a handful of years as he has juggled newfound interest in everything from professional boxing to slap fighting, while also advancing UFC’s firm grip internationally as the world’s leading combat sports promotion. That fact alone should give doubters some hope that if anyone could pull this off, it’s White given his stubborn track record of turning visions into reality. In many ways, UFC 306 is the perfect flex for the promotion during the TKO era for parent company Endeavor as UFC combines the strengths and ethos of all of its partnerships to put on a one-night only event that none of its rivals could dream of. 

2. While interest remains high, UFC 306’s critics have been justified

Whether or not The Sphere will actually work as a one-night fight venue is a $20 million question that can only be answered on Saturday. But there have been a few elements of the build to Noche UFC that have deserved the second guessing of skeptics each step of the way. The biggest of those are the exorbitant ticket prices, which opened in a range of $2,257 for the 400 Level to $17,507 for the most expensive floor seats, and have plummeted in recent weeks as UFC has struggled to sell the remaining 3,000 seats in a domed arena that can hold 15,410. And even though the UFC is largely selling The Sphere itself to PPV customers just as much as the 10 fights that make up the card, many critics have balked about the matchmaking. To many, UFC 306 feels more like an acceptable to above-average PPV in 2024 and not, from a depth standpoint, the kind of can’t-miss type PPV more akin to the way White has built it up. But the biggest controversy, without question, has surrounded the branding. UFC’s preliminary budgets quickly became unrealistic given an event this unique with so many moving parts. So, the promotion very much benefitted from the financial relief provided by newfound partner Turki Alalshikh of Saudi Arabia, who is in charge of his nation’s enormous entertainment budget and has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the sport of boxing over the past 18 months. Alalshikh’s sponsorship of UFC 306, an event designed to target and celebrate Mexican history, now sees the term “Riyadh Season” getting top billing ahead of it. Some, took just as much umbrage with the fact that Saudi Arabia is sponsoring an event on U.S. soil during the same week as the 23-year anniversary of the 9/11 tragedies. And even though the UFC 306 main event is among the handful of best fights the promotion can produce, the glaring lack of Mexican or Mexican-American fighters on the marquee have also produced questions that don’t have easy answers. 

3. If Sean O’Malley truly has worldwide star potential, this is his night to find out

Few breakout stars have built themselves as organically as O’Malley, the 29-year-old colorful striker who captured bantamweight told last October and is in the midst of an impressive run of victories over the likes of Petr Yan, Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Vera. But Merab Dvalishvili might be O’Malley’s toughest pro test to date in various ways. And given the scope of Saturday’s event and the potential that UFC 306 has, because of The Sphere, to cross over onto the screens of casual fight fans across the globe, now is the time for UFC to find out just how big of a singular brand that O’Malley can become. Few fighters have done as well as the “Suga Show” has in recent years as a self-marketing machine through his podcast and brand investments. But O’Malley has yet to become a true, crossover PPV star despite the colorful hair, flashy tattoos and viral sensibility of one of the sport’s most sublime strikers. The impact for O’Malley’s brand of a potential resounding knockout against one of the world’s top 15 pound-for-pound fighters on a stage this large could lead to a massive ripple effect. 

4. The style contrast in O’Malley-Dvalishvili should be fascinating

Forget the bantamweight division, there isn’t another fighter in the UFC who brings as unique of a threat to O’Malley’s title reign than Dvalishvili, the 33-year-old Georgian madman who possesses quite possibly the most lethal gas tank in UFC history. Dvalishvili, who sharpened his skills in recent years as the chief sparring partner to the former 135-pound champion Sterling, averages an absurd six takedowns per three rounds and constantly provides the kind of extreme forward pressure that could create havoc for O’Malley’s stamina and hopes to keep the fight standing. But the drawback of Dvalishvili’s frantic attack is that he often throws so much caution to the wind in order to close distance, which his opponent possesses as the perfect antidote to make him pay. O’Malley, who has long positioned himself as the successor to Conor McGregor, owns a similarly potent counterpunching attack as the Irish sensation that could prove lethal to Dvalishvili. Not only will Dvalishvili need to prove he can make the champion pay on the ground after taking him down, O’Malley must be prepared for the hardest 25 minutes of his career. The good news for both is that their most recent bouts prepared them well as O’Malley fought a full five rounds for the first time in his career in defeating Vera in their rematch while Dvalishvili proved against former champion Henry Cejudo that his striking has evolved to a whole new level. 

5. Trilogy bout with Alexa Grasso offers Valentina Shevchenko last chance at redemption

At 36, Shevchenko has already secured herself as one of the greatest female fighters, pound-for-pound, in the history of the sport. But the former women’s flyweight champion felt like she was robbed from regaining her belt in last September’s title rematch when an errant 10-8 scoring of the final round from one judge prevented Shevchenko from winning a split decision. Instead, Shevchenko settled for a draw, which produced not only a need for a third fight but a chance for the two competitors to coach against one another on “The Ultimate Fighter.” The only problem with that is Shevchenko had to wait an additional year to gear up and fully prepare for this third meeting. Was her submission loss in their first fight merely the result of a Shevchenko mistake? Or has the living legend slowed with age just enough for the Mexican-born Grasso to take over as the best fighter in a suddenly loaded 125-pound division? Let’s just say, there are no shortage of huge stakes in this compelling third matchup.