UFC 305 predictions, odds, best bets: Dricus du Plessis, Steve Erceg among top picks to consider

UFC 305 goes down from Perth, Australia on Saturday and fans throughout the continent are hoping to see some of its top stars score huge wins. No fight on the card is bigger than Dricus du Plessis defending the middleweight championship against Israel Adesanya in a long-awaited grudge match.

Adesanya and du Plessis were a pairing expected to share the Octagon during Adesanya’s second run as champion but when du Plessis wasn’t ready for an opportunity at UFC 293, Sean Strickland stepped in and scored a huge upset to take the title. After that, du Plessis took down Strickland to win the title and now Adesanya enters the fight in the role of challenger.

Australia’s Steve Erceg makes his return to his home country in the co-main event, one fight after dropping a close decision to Alexandre Pantoja in a fight for the flyweight championship. Erceg will be taking on longtime contender Kai Kara-France.

After going 2-3 with our best bets for UFC 304, we are sitting with a record of 18-21 on the year. That’s not a winning record, but we can still get on track to get out of the red before the end of the year, hopefully starting with UFC 305. Check out UFC betting sites if interested in picking any fight on this card.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates

Carlos Prates via KO/TKO/DQ (-110)

Jingliang has settled into a role as a mid-tier welterweight with a 2-3 record since 2020. Prates, meanwhile, has nine in a row and started his UFC career with back-to-back stoppages in the Octagon. While Jingliang has never been stopped by strikes, Prates has very good muay Thai skills. The KO line is lower than a Prates by decision play (+250) because his striking is dangerous enough to hand Jingliang his first KO/TKO loss and with Jingliang at 36 and on something of a downswing, we’ll go with the stoppage.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Jairzinho Rozenstruik via KO/TKO/DQ (-150)

It’s tempting to play Rozenstruik by KO in Round 1, but +140 isn’t a good enough improvement over the anytime knockout line to lose out on the chance Tuivasa manages to survive the first five minutes. Rozenstruik isn’t a great fighter, by any stretch, but what he does well is everything Tuivasa is vulnerable to. Rozenstruik is a knockout artist, with 13 of his 14 career wins coming by KO or TKO. Tuivasa has the exact same 13 of 14 rate, but he has also been knocked out twice in his four most recent fights. Tuivasa’s defense is leaky and his chin isn’t holding up against heavy-hitters, which gives Rozenstruik the big advantage in this one.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

Mateusz Gamrot via decision (-150)

Gamrot is a pretty big favorite coming in and given Hooker’s skill level, it could be worth a value play on his moneyline if you think that line has gotten a little bit out of hand. Still, Gamrot’s takedowns will most likely be the deciding factor here. Hooker’s takedown defense isn’t bad, but Gamrot is pretty relentless and averages more than five takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. It’s unlikely Gamrot is going to want to stand and trade where Hooker is going to be his most effective. This feels like a fight that goes to the decision and Gamrot has a tool that Hooker doesn’t.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg

Steve Erceg moneyline (-162)

Erceg may have lost his shot at the flyweight title against Pantoja in his most recent outing, but he answered some questions along the way. Erceg did very well on the feet early before Pantoja came back with takedowns. In the fifth round, Erceg made a bad decision to try for a takedown of his own that allowed Pantoja to take over and edge out the fight on the scorecards. Kara-France isn’t quite the dynamic fighter Pantoja is and has been beaten by less skilled fighters than Erceg. I’m not confident enough in a method of victory for Erceg, but he should get the win and -162 is not a bad line. Kara-France will give it his best but that isn’t likely to be enough.

Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Dricus du Plessis moneyline (-105)

This fight comes down to whether or not you believe Adesanya’s window among the elite of the elite has closed. He looked like he simply couldn’t pull the trigger against Sean Strickland in his title-losing performance. That could have been a one-off issue, but it could also be that age and a lifetime of fights caught up to him. Du Plessis is an ultra-aggressive fighter who isn’t going to make things easy or allow Adesanya to easily get into a flow in the early stages of the fight. The Adesanya of old would eat that kind of aggression alive. If he’s just slow on the trigger now, that plays into du Plessis’ gameplan of overwhelming opponents. Given we can only go on what we’ve seen, or should do so rather than assuming things will be different, it only makes sense to go with the champion to retain his title against the legend.