UFC 304 predictions, odds, best bets: Tom Aspinall, Paddy Pimblett among top picks to consider this weekend

It’s almost time for another UFC pay-per-view event as UFC 304 goes down Saturday in Manchester, England. The card is headlined by a pair of rematches that both ended in unfortunate ways the first time around.

In the main event, Leon Edwards puts the welterweight championship on the line against Belal Muhammad. Both men bring impressive winning streaks to the fight but things have changed since their first meeting ended in a no-contest after an accidental eye poke by Edwards in the second round, with Edwards ascending to the top of the division by knocking out Kamaru Usman to win the 170-pound title.

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

Arnold Allen over 0.5 takedowns landed: Yes (-165)

These takedown prop bets aren’t available at all sportsbooks, but we came across this line at DraftKings and it is a solid play. Allen averages just over one takedown per 15 minutes, which isn’t a ton but when given the right opponent he will go to the grappling. Chikadze has a 69% takedown defense rate and comes in as the taller man and rangier striker. That means Allen will have to work to get inside to land his strikes. Once inside, there will be opportunities to take the fight to the ground and work the top game, which seems like a good gameplan for Allen in this pairing. Very good wrestlers have been able to put Allen on his back repeatedly, such as his most recent fight, a loss to Movsar Evloev that saw Evloev score five takedowns. But worse wrestlers than Allen have taken Chikadze down repeatedly and we’re only looking for Allen to finish a single takedown here.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

 Christian Leroy Duncan moneyline (-135)

This is set up to be a tremendous fight between two dangerous strikers. It got the late call up to the main card, bumping Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape down to the prelims. Duncan is an inch shorter but has a four-inch advantage in reach, which could come into play. Rodrigues also gets hit a bit more frequently than Duncan. This whole fight flips in a big way if Rodrigues decides to use his grappling, which would be his easiest path to victory. This feels like it plays out as a striking bout, however, and that gives Duncan a slight edge.

Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett moneyline (+100)

The idea here is that Green is the long-demanded “dangerous foe” for Pimblett, who really deserved to lose to Jared Gordon at UFC 282. In reality, though? The UFC isn’t looking to cash Pimblett out against a fighter like Green and it feels like this is matchmaking designed to look more dangerous than it really is. Pimblett isn’t likely to stand in the pocket and go punch-for-punch with Green since Green has far more one-shot power. Pimblett is going to be on his bike, looking to potshot and find moments to score takedowns. I think he can do that effectively enough over three rounds to either pull off a tight decision or find a submission on the floor. Since both possibilities are in play, we roll with the Pimblett moneyline.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes

Tom Aspinall via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+110)

Aspinall’s hand speed is fantastic for a heavyweight and he’s solid movement skills to go along with that. We’ve seen Blaydes get hurt by less effective strikers such as Sergei Pavlovich and also by men with unique power like Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis. There’s not much to take away from the 15-second first meeting between these two other than that Blaydes wanted to counter and Aspinall suffered an injury after landing a good leg kick. Blaydes is going to need to land a fight-changing shot and those aren’t likely to come beyond single punches given Aspinall’s defense and speed. Meanwhile, Aspinall can get in and out with quick combinations that will likely sting and finish Blaydes, likely keeping up Aspinall’s impressive run of first-round finishes.

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad

Leon Edwards via KO/TKO/DQ (+300)

Every now and then, it’s worth taking a shot and this is a good spot for it. This is a matchup of very similar fighters in terms of what each man does but then there’s just the fact that Edwards is simply better at those things. Muhammad deserves the title shot, he’s done everything asked to earn it. But Edwards is at the peak of his powers as a legitimate top-tier fighter. Edwards was piecing Muhammad up in their first fight before the accidental eye poke that brought the fight to a close and that included some heavy shots that had Muhammad a bit rattled. Given five rounds of Edwards putting that same level of striking on Muhammad, the finish can come for the younger, better fighter.