Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today: UConn falls out of top 25, Tennessee, Kentucky move into top five

The following teams lost over the last week in college basketball, setting up what is likely to be the biggest shakeup of the season for the AP Top 25 poll on Monday: No. 2 UConn (x3), No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 5 Iowa State, No. 6 Houston (x2), No. 9 Alabama, No. 11 Duke, No. 12 North Carolina (x2), No. 14 Indiana (x2), No. 19 Arkansas, No. 20 Texas A&M, No. 21 Creighton (x2), No. 22 Xavier, No. 23 Ole Miss, No. 24 Arizona (x2) and No. 25 Mississippi State. 

Grand total there: 15 teams took at least one loss and ranked teams took a total of 2 losses between them, led by two-time defending champion UConn’s three-loss stinker at the Maui Invitational.

So let’s try and untangle the mess that was in the space below.

This will be a weekly safe area for us to guess how we think AP voters will react to the results of the week, making it of course different from Gary Parrish’s daily Top 25 And 1 rankings and different than my weekly Power Rankings. This is all about taking into account the entire season’s body of work, factoring in the last week since the most recent AP Top 25 poll, and then trying to break into the brain of voters to guess how we think the upcoming poll Monday will look.

Our best guess is below — with a familiar name remaining at No. 1.

1. Kansas (Last week — 1): All Kansas has done is win this season. The preseason No. 1 Jayhawks are now 7-0 with a big win over Duke last week to pad one of the best resumes in basketball. 

2. Auburn (Last week — 4): Auburn’s playing like the best team in the sport right now after a 3-0 week in Maui in which it took down one top-five team (Iowa State), one top-12 team (North Carolina) and one really good team that will likely be ranked Monday (Memphis). 

3. Tennessee (Last week — 7): Losses by teams ranked ahead of Tennessee combined with Tennessee’s dominant 7-0 run to start this season should get the Vols into the top five for a fourth consecutive season. Their 26.9-point scoring margin is sixth among teams in college basketball.

4. Kentucky (Last week — 8): Mark Pope’s Wildcats are 7-0 in what has been a pretty soft nonconference schedule aside from the Duke win. But they have won each of their games save for the Blue Devils win by double figures and hardly broken a sweat. 

5. Marquette (Last week — 10): Marquette had a run in November where it beat Maryland, Purdue and Georgia in the span of eight days. It now enters December with an 8-0 record for the first time since 2011-12 with a trip to Iowa State on tap this week. 

6. Iowa State (Last week — 5): The only loss for Iowa State on the season is to an Auburn team that torched the field in Maui this past week. The Cyclones may slip a bit but should remain in the top 10.

7. Gonzaga (Last week — 3): An overtime loss to West Virginia this week likely docks the Zags, who otherwise could have been positioned to move into the top two. Bounce-back wins over Indiana and Davidson in the Bahamas salvaged the week. 

8. Purdue (Last week — 13): Purdue knocked off Ole Miss with a final-second tip-in from Myles Colvin on Friday to polish off its perfect week and improve to 7-1. The Boilermakers should move back where they belong this week into the top 10. 

9. Wisconsin (Last week — 9): Greg Gard has the Badgers rocking as conference play begins this week. Wisconsin is 8-0 and has wins over Pitt, UCF and Arizona. 

10. Duke (Last week — 11): A loss this week to No. 1 Kansas by three points shouldn’t be affect voters much in this week’s AP poll. Duke’s only two losses now are to KU and UK — both of which should be in the top five on Monday. 

11. Cincinnati (Last week — 16): The schedule has been soft for Cincinnati but a 6-0 record is a 6-0 record. That should be enough to move the Bearcats up several spots this week. They beat Alabama State at home in their lone outing last week. 

12. Oregon (Last week — NR): Unranked to top 10 is a realistic path the Ducks could waddle into after a huge week with wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama — all on neutral courts. It’s the first time since 2013-14 Oregon’s started a season 8-0 and the second time ever under Dana Altman.

13. Alabama (Last week — 9): Alabama went 2-1 on the week with five-point wins over Houston and Rutgers and a two-point loss to Oregon. It’ll be out of the top 10 this week but shouldn’t fall too far. 

14. Memphis (Last week — NR): Penny Hardaway fired four staffers just before the season but has his Memphis Tigers at 6-1 after a successful week at the Maui Invitational with wins over UConn and Michigan State and a competitive loss to Auburn. Memphis currently has the best three-point shooting team by percentage in college basketball at 46.9%.

15. Baylor (Last week — 17): Two wins vs. ranked teams and two losses vs. ranked teams should keep Baylor in the same neighborhood it was in last week. The Bears are 5-2 after a 1-0 week with a 31-point win over New Orleans. They head to UConn this week. 

16. Illinois (Last week — NR): A statement was sent on Thanksgiving from Illinois as it downed Arkansas 90-77 inside the T-Mobile Center. Kasparas Jakucionis is coming on strong for the Illini after posting back-to-back season-high scoring efforts this week of 21 and 23 points vs. Little Rock and Arkansas, respectively. 

17. Michigan State (Last week — NR): Despite a loss to an unranked Memphis team, Michigan State put together a big week at the Maui Invitational with wins over both Colorado and North Carolina. Its first Big Ten game of the regular season is on deck Wednesday with a road trip to Minnesota. 

18. Pitt (Last week — NR): Zack Austin hit a buzzer-beater in overtime Friday to knock off Ohio State and prevent the Panthers from falling into a losing streak. Pitt has a star in Jaland Lowe, who had 28 points in the win. 

19. Florida (Last week — 18): There are three SEC teams inside the top 10 at KenPom. The first three you’d guess — Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama — and a surprise in Florida. It shouldn’t be, though. The Gators moved 8-0 this week after wins over Wake Forest and Wichita State by 17 and 27 points, respectively. 

20. Texas (Last week — NR): Rodney Terry and Texas have ridden one of the most experienced teams in college basketball to a 6-1 start that features six consecutive wins after a season-opening loss to Ohio State. Only one of those wins was against a top-100 KenPom team, though so much chaos in the sport last week could get the Longhorns back into the polls. 

21. Michigan (Last week — NR): A 25-point win over Xavier on Wednesday registered as a “whoa” moment that merits giving Michigan its flowers. It has wins over TCU, Virginia Tech and Xavier, among others, and will have a chance to prove itself this week with Wisconsin and Iowa on deck.

22. North Carolina (Last week — 12): How much voters punish UNC after a 1-2 week with a loss to Auburn and a close overtime loss to Michigan State will be interesting. I’d drop it from the top 25 but suspect the Tar Heels stick around at the back end of the rankings. 

23. San Diego State (Last week — NR): San Diego State went 2-1 this week with wins over Creighton and Houston and a loss to Oregon. 

24. Arkansas (Last week — 19): A 13-point loss to Illinois on a neutral court on Thanksgiving day puts the Razorbacks’ spot in the rankings in peril this week. They’ve lost both games against top-100 KenPom competition this season. 

25. Drake (Last week — NR): Voters have had Drake on their radar for awhile, and the Bulldogs received votes for the first time this season last week. A number of teams falling out of the rankings could get them into the mix this week. Ben McCollum has Drake 7-0 with wins over Vanderbilt and Miami among the seven on their resume. 

Projected to drop out: No. 2 UConn, No. 6 Houston, No. 14 Indiana, No. 20 Texas A&M, No. 21 Creighton, No. 22 Xavier, No. 23 Ole Miss, No. 24 Arizona, No. 25 Mississippi State