Thunder and Cavaliers off to perfect starts, but which of NBA’s two unbeaten teams will lose first?

The NBA isn’t the NFL. Sure, we’ll occasionally get an outlier like the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors starting 24-0, but rarely does talk of how long any team will remain undefeated last longer than a week or two in basketball. The sport comes with too much inherent randomness. It’s too easy to lose to a lesser team because of shooting variance, or because of a few injuries, or even just a quick turnaround and some travel after your last game. Nobody won more than their first five games last season.

But this season? We don’t just have one unbeaten team through two weeks, we have two. The Cleveland Cavaliers lead the pack at 8-0. The Oklahoma City Thunder are right behind them at 7-0. The Warriors are the only team in the past 20 years to even reach 10-0, but there’s a chance both of these teams get there this season.

So let’s cut to the chase and ask the question on all of our minds: who’s going to remain unbeaten longer? Let’s dig in and figure it out.

Who’s been better?

It depends on what you value. Oklahoma City has outscored opponents by a league-best 17.1 points per 100 possessions. Cleveland’s net rating is a very impressive but slightly more modest plus-12.7. The Cavaliers are, however, a tad more balanced. They are one of three teams to rank in the top five in the NBA in both offense (No. 2) and defense (No. 5). The Thunder have actually struggled a fair bit on offense, ranking 19th by scoring 110.9 points per 100 possessions. It just hasn’t mattered because their defense is historically good. They are allowing 93.8 points per 100 possessions, more than eight fewer than any other defense.

Both teams have played relatively weak schedules thus far. They have combined to play three teams over .500, with Cleveland beating two and Oklahoma City beating one. Still, with the schedule so compressed this early in the season, that’s not a totally fair measure of opponent quality. On that front, Cleveland has the slight edge with a number of impressive wins. They’ve beaten the Knicks and Bucks on the road and the Lakers at home. The Thunder stomped the Nuggets on opening night, but have mostly played bottom-feeders since then. Ultimately there are arguments for both, though for reasons we are about to discuss, I’d lean Oklahoma City slightly.

Who’s come closer to losing a game?

We’re going to pick a president before the Thunder play a game decided by single digits. Nobody has even mildly annoyed Oklahoma City yet. Their closest win was by 12 points, but they led that game by 18 with two minutes remaining before San Antonio hit a couple of garbage-time buckets. Most of their “closest” games have that in common. They led the Nuggets by 19 in the fourth and the Clippers by 18. Saying they’ve won all of their games by double digits doesn’t quite do them justice. In truth, if they’d needed to, they probably could’ve won all of their games by 20 or more. 

If you go try to look up clutch time stats for the season, you’ll notice that the NBA’s database only includes 29 teams, not 30. That’s because the Thunder haven’t yet met the league’s criteria for a clutch game yet, meaning they have not played a single game that has been within five points with five or fewer minutes left. The Thunder are lapping the field, and if you’re looking for a reason one team has been better than the other, this is their edge over Cleveland.

It’s been a bit bumpier for the Cavaliers. Their big win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden was competitive throughout. The Pistons kept to within single digits into the fourth quarter. Most notably, though, the Bucks have had them dead to rights twice. On Saturday, Donovan Mitchell nearly lost the ball twice before drilling a game-winner with less than a second remaining. On Monday, the Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo led by eight with six minutes to play before collapsing.

Give the Bucks credit. Statistically, they have been the NBA’s best clutch team this season. Though Boston’s clutch net rating of plus-56.5 is slightly higher than Cleveland’s plus-53.7, Boston has lost a clutch game and Cleveland has not. But good teams win close games. Great teams avoid them. No team has ever started a season with seven consecutive double-digit wins. The Thunder did it with ease.

Who has the easier upcoming schedule?

Depending on health, Oklahoma City might have a fairly easy upcoming road or an extremely daunting one. Here are the Thunder’s next ten opponents:

Upcoming Thunder schedule

There’s plenty of good news in here. Only three of these games are on the road, for instance. There are two back-to-backs, but the second night of both comes against teams below .500 and only one of them involves any travel. Of course, nothing on the schedule means more than who you’re playing, and the Thunder have some doozies in their immediate future. Road trips to Denver are usually daunting. The Warriors are beating up bad teams nearly as handily as the Thunder are. The Suns have only lost once. The Mavericks just made the NBA Finals.

But for the time being at least, OKC’s opponents aren’t at full strength. Jamal Murray missed Monday’s game with a concussion, so his status for Wednesday is up in the air. Aaron Gordon got hurt on Monday as well, so he could easily be out himself. Kawhi Leonard hasn’t technically been ruled out of the Clipper game, but Ty Lue did say he would not play this week, so Monday of the following week appears unlikely. The Pelicans have dealt with injuries basically everywhere and likely won’t be close to full strength in a week. A stretch that might include three or four losses at any other point in the calendar looks much easier today.

Things are a bit easier for Cleveland, but with some doozies sprinkled in. If these streaks last awhile, Cleveland probably does have a game in which it will be a clear underdog awaiting it. Here are the next 10 Cavalier opponents:

Upcoming Cavaliers schedule

There are a few games here that Cleveland should win with ease. The corpse of the Pelicans probably can’t put up much of a fight right now. Brooklyn, Chicago, Charlotte and Toronto are on lottery trajectories. Even an otherwise scary trip to Philadelphia looks a bit easier right now with Joel Embiid both injured and facing possible discipline for shoving a reporter. No matter when the team loses its first game, Cleveland is poised to tally up a bunch of wins in November.

But there are two major road blocks here that need to be addressed. The Warriors are first. While both rosters have obviously changed dramatically, it’s worth noting that before last season, Golden State had won 12 regular-season games in a row against Cleveland. The Warriors have been better than Cleveland by net rating (plus-16.8). As strong as Cleveland’s defense is near the basket, it doesn’t have a defender equipped to chase Stephen Curry and Buddy Hield around screens all night. This is a bad matchup against a red hot opponent.

And then there’s probably the most-anticipated game of the group stage of the NBA Cup. On Nov. 19, the two best teams in the Eastern Conference will square off in Boston. Barring injuries, the Celtics will be favored in that game. Cleveland has played Boston well in recent years. It holds a 7-6 advantage in the past four regular seasons. But the Celtics are the champs and look as strong as ever. Beating them on the road would be a major statement for Cleveland, but one Vegas certainly won’t expect them to make. The Thunder probably have the harder overall road. The Cavs have the hardest single game.

When do these teams face off against one another?

Sadly, it’s going to be awhile. The Cavaliers will host the Thunder on Jan. 8. In case you’re wondering, both teams would be 33-0 if they manage to go the next two months without losing. The odds of that are obviously infinitesimal, but hey, as a fun little hypothetical, the winner of that game would not only be the NBA’s last remaining unbeaten, but would also break the now-five decade old league record for most consecutive wins, as the 1971-72 Lakers won 33 in a row. It won’t happen, but yes, right now, there is technically a path for perhaps the most important regular-season game in NBA history to come in January.

Come on Sam, make a prediction

Fine. Cleveland will make it to 9-0 before dropping its first game of the season on Friday against the Warriors. The Thunder will beat the Warriors, who by then will have already played the Celtics and Cavaliers on the road consecutively, and make it to 12-0. They will then drop their first game of the season at home against the Suns on Nov. 15. That would make the Thunder the league’s final remaining unbeaten team and give them the best non-Warriors start to a season since the Dallas Mavericks won their first 14 games all the way back in 2002.