NFL Week 5 betting nuggets
Written by luck on October 8, 2021
Week 5 features the highest over/under of the season when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs host Josh Allen and the Bills. Last week, the Chiefs covered for just the third time in their last 15 games including the playoffs. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been the best team against the spread (ATS) since the start of last season, including having the top cover margin in 2021.
It also features the lowest over/under of the season as the New England Patriots visit the Houston Texans. It’s the first time a rookie quarterback is favored by at least eight points on the road since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.
The only remaining unbeaten team ATS is the Dallas Cowboys. They host the New York Giants, who are 10-2 ATS when Daniel Jones is a road underdog.
The only remaining unbeaten team outright is the Arizona Cardinals, who host the San Francisco 49ers.
Last season, the road underdog won both meetings. Kyle Shanahan is 15-9 ATS in his career as a road underdog with the 49ers. Here are notes and trends for all 16 Week 5 matchups.
NFL Trends:
Underdogs: 8-8 ATS, 6-10 SU in Week 4; 38-26 ATS, 27-37 SU this season
Road teams: 9-7 ATS, 9-7 SU in Week 4; 36-28 ATS; 33-31 SU this season
Unders: 7-9 in Week 4; 36-28 this season
Best/Worst Teams ATS
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5), Sunday at 9:30 AM ET
New York is 7-13 ATS since the start of last season and 2-8 ATS on the road. Both are tied with Philadelphia for the worst cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
Rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS in Week 4 and are now 5-11 ATS on the season. The only rookie quarterback to not cover in Week 4 was Davis Mills against Buffalo. Rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.
Atlanta is 1-5 outright and ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.
Favorites in London games are 17-11 ATS.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-4), Sunday at 1 ET
Philadelphia is 7-13 ATS and 2-8 ATS on the road since the start of last season, both tied with the New York Jets for the worst cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
Philadelphia has failed to cover each of its last three games overall and its last three as an underdog.
Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of the 2018 season.
Carolina has covered three straight games as a favorite (2-0 ATS this season).
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 ET
Green Bay is 13-7 ATS since the start of last season, tied with Miami for the 2nd-best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
Green Bay has covered three consecutive games and has covered four of its past five as a favorite.
Green Bay is 13-5 SU (11-7 ATS) on the road since the start of the 2019 season.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-8), Sunday at 1 ET
Minnesota is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season.
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS against Detroit with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.
Detroit has failed to cover in each of its last three road games.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1), Sunday at 1 ET
Teddy Bridgewater is 38-15 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 22-6 ATS as an underdog.
Drew Lock is 11-7 ATS in his career.
Denver and Pittsburgh are two of four teams to go under in every game this season, along with the Los Angeles Chargers and New England.
Denver is 3-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.
Pittsburgh has failed to cover in each of its past five games as a favorite.
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10), Sunday at 1 ET
Miami is 13-7 ATS since the start of last season, tied with Green Bay for the 2nd-best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
Since the start of last season, Miami is 6-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.
Miami is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of last season.
Miami is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Brian Flores (all in 2019). However, he is 5-1 ATS the last six times, and he’s won three of the last four times outright. Flores’ three outright wins as a double-digit underdog are tied for most in the NFL in the last 10 seasons (Adam Gase).
Tom Brady is 202-139-7 ATS in his career including the playoffs (.592).
Tom Brady is 54-5 in his career as a double-digit favorite, though each of his last three such losses came against Miami.
Bruce Arians is 4-8-1 ATS as a home favorite since becoming head coach of Tampa Bay.
Miami has a -9.8 average cover margin this season, worst in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints (-1) at Washington Football Team, Sunday at 1 ET
The underdog has won outright in every New Orleans game this season.
The closing line has been at least 10 points off in each game.
New Orleans is 30-12 ATS on the road since the start of the 2016 season, the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
It’s also three more road covers than any other team in the NFL over that span.
New Orleans is 12-4 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since the start of the 2018 season.
New Orleans is 48-26 ATS following a straight-up loss under Sean Payton.
Washington has gone over the total in all three of Taylor Heinicke‘s starts this season, and in all four of his starts with the team, including last season’s playoff loss.
Tennessee Titans (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 ET
Rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS in Week 4 and are now 5-11 ATS on the season. The only rookie quarterback to not cover in Week 4 was Davis Mills against Buffalo. Rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.
Tennessee has gone 14-5-1 to the over since the start of last season. The over is 23-6-1 in the regular season in Ryan Tannehill starts since he joined the team.
Jacksonville has lost 19 straight games outright, going 7-12 ATS in that span.
Over the last two seasons, Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS when it is not at least a six-point underdog.
It is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 such games dating back to Week 9 of 2010.
Jacksonville has failed to cover in each of its last four games as a home underdog.
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 ET
New England is one of four teams to go under in every game this season, along with Los Angeles, Denver and Pittsburgh.
New England is 57-31 ATS following a straight-up loss under Bill Belichick.
This is the lowest over/under of the season (currently 40). The lowest total entering this week is 41.5 (done four times). This year, the under is 15-5 when the total is 45 and below (57-37-1 last 2 seasons). The last total below 40 was Week 12 last season (36.5) between Denver and New Orleans when Denver did not have a quarterback.
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS in Week 4 and are now 5-11 ATS on the season. The only rookie quarterback to not cover in Week 4 was Davis Mills against Buffalo. Rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.
Las Vegas is 15-5 to the over since the start of last season, the highest over percentage in the NFL.
The over is 9-1 in Las Vegas home games since the team moved before last season.
Since Jon Gruden started his second tenure with the team in 2018, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of at least 3.5 points (3-3 SU).
Las Vegas has failed to cover in each of its past five games as a favorite.
Chicago has failed to cover in each of it past three games as an underdog.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Los Angeles is 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season.
Justin Herbert is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career.
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog including the playoffs.
Los Angeles is one of four teams to go under in every game this season, along with Denver, New England and Pittsburgh.
Cleveland is 3-11 ATS against AFC opponents since the start of last season.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET
New York is 14-5-1 to the under since the start of last season, tied with New England for the highest under percentage in the NFL.
New York is 18-4 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2018 season.
Daniel Jones is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog (3-9 outright).
Dallas is the only team in the NFL that is undefeated against the spread this season (4-0 ATS).
Dak Prescott has gone 4-5 ATS as a starter since the start of last season. Seven of his nine starts went over the total.
Dallas is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season. Dallas is also 3-6 ATS as a favorite over that same time span.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5), Sunday at 4:25 ET
Rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS in Week 4 and are now 5-11 ATS on the season. The only rookie quarterback to not cover in Week 4 was Davis Mills against Buffalo. Rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.
Last year, both meetings were won by the road underdog (both at least six-point underdogs).
San Francisco is 10-3 ATS as a road since 2019, including 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Kyle Shanahan is 15-9 ATS as a road underdog with San Francisco.
Kyle Shanahan is 5-2-1 ATS in his career against Arizona.
Arizona is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury.
Arizona has failed to cover in four of its past five games against NFC West opponents.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET
Buffalo is 14-6 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
Buffalo games have gone 14-8-1 to the over since the start of last season, including playoffs.
Buffalo is 7-1 ATS since the start of last season when the line falls between -3 and +3.
Buffalo was 4-1 ATS as an underdog last regular season, though they did not cover as an underdog in the playoffs against Kansas City.
Buffalo has a +13.9 cover margin per game, best in the NFL.
Kansas City has gone 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games dating back to last season including playoffs. They’ve covered two of their last 11 games as a favorite.
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Kansas City has never been favored by less than three points in a Patrick Mahomes home start.
Patrick Mahomes is 9-1-1 ATS when he is not favored by at least 3.5 points, including 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 1-3 points.
At 56.5, this is the highest total of the season thus far. It’s also the highest total in any Buffalo game in over 35 seasons.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7), Monday at 8 ET on ESPN
The under is 26-18 in Carson Wentz starts since 2018 including the playoffs.
Home teams are 4-0 ATS on Monday Night Football this season.
Baltimore has covered each of its past three games as a home favorite.
Baltimore is 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite (both on road). Lamar Jackson is 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more in his career.
