NFL Week 17 overreactions, reality checks: Eagles won’t win playoff game? Bears should trade No. 1 pick?

Week 17 of the NFL certainly cleaned up a few playoff races in the AFC and NFC. The Dallas Cowboys are one win away from a division title while the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

The AFC East is still up for grabs, setting up a showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins while the AFC South is mired in a three-way tie between the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The NFC South will come down to the final day too, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons right back into the race. 

In the Week 17 results of the Sunday afternoon games, let’s determine which were overreactions and which were reality? 

Lamar Jackson locked up the MVP

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Ravens are the best team in the AFC when Jackson is their quarterback, as Jackson and the Ravens offense put up a whopping 56 points against a Dolphins defense that allowed just 14.8 points per game over the last six weeks. 

All Jackson did was throw for 321 yards and five touchdowns and have a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Jackson has 3,6678 yards passing with 24 touchdowns to seven interceptions and a 102.7 passer rating — while also leading the Ravens with 821 rushing yards (and five touchdowns).

Jackson can be the youngest quarterback ever at the time of his second NFL MVP (turns 27 on final day of regular season) and can be the first quarterback to win league MVP without a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver since Brett Favre in 1996.

The Ravens have the best record in football and are the best team in the tougher conference. They aren’t 13-3 without Jackson. 

Eagles won’t win a playoff game

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Eagles just lost a football game to a team that entered with a 3-12 record, giving up 35 points and 449 yards to an offense that didn’t put up 30 points or more than 440 yards all year. They lost four of their last five games, averaging 22.6 points per game and allowing 31.0 points in that stretch. The Cardinals scored 29 points in the second half and couldn’t score more than 29 in a single game all year.

That’s the state of the Eagles defense right now, a unit that demoted (fired) their defensive coordinator three weeks ago. Players are showing the vibe of a team that can’t wait for the year to be over — and this is a football team that’s 11-5 and going to the playoffs. 

The coaches can’t figure it out, but keep preaching “together.” That’s a sign of a fractured locker room. This team is in serious trouble, and an early playoff exit appears near. 

Bills will miss playoffs

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Theoretically, the Bills can miss the playoffs. A Week 18 loss to the Dolphins (in Miami) combined with a Colts or Texans win (they play each other) and a Steelers win and Buffalo is 10-7 with the Houston/Indianapolis winner and Pittsburgh. There are two playoff spots left. 

So who gets the spot in that scenario? Since the Bills didn’t play any of these teams, the tiebreaker goes down to conference record. The Colts would be 8-4 in the conference if they beat the Texans, while the Texans would be 7-5 in the conference if they win. If Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers would be 7-5 in the conference.

Where does that leave the Bills? A loss to the Dolphins leaves them 6-6 in the conference. Buffalo would be on the outside looking in with a loss and a Colts/Texans AND Steelers win.

The Steelers are playing the Ravens, who have nothing to play for. Buffalo can certainly miss the playoffs if the Bills lose to the Dolphins. A win, however, not only seals the AFC East title but the No. 2 seed as well. 

Even if the Bills lose, the Steelers have to win. There’s a few things that need to happen. They can miss the playoffs, but this is an overreaction for a team that’s won four in a row and five of six.

Bears should trade No. 1 pick

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Justin Fields has been playing solid for a Bears team that has won five of its last seven games. Fields has completed 60.4% of his passes for 1,213 yards and five touchdowns to three interceptions in six of those games (80.9 rating). He also has 393 rushing yards and three touchdowns (5.7 yards per carry) in that stretch. The Bears are averaging 24.5 points per game in that stretch.

Fields has been fine as the Bears starting quarterback, good enough to make the Bears contemplate trading down from the No. 1 pick again and getting a king’s ransom for the right to select Caleb Williams. Are the Bears actually better with Williams or are they better off keeping Fields and stockpiling picks? 

The Bears passed on Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud last year and loaded up on picks in favor of Fields, trading the No. 1 pick to the Panthers and getting the No. 1 pick anyway (Panthers finished with the worst record in the NFL with Young as their quarterback).

The Bears have four months to decide if they want to trade the No. 1 pick — or trade Fields. Chicago has a dynamic playmaker at quarterback already, so this is a franchise-altering decision.  

Texans will earn playoff spot

Overreaction or reality: Reality

All the Texans have to do is beat the Colts to get into the playoffs. The Texans have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers if both teams win in Week 18. Even if the Bills win and finish 11-6, the Texans are in at 10-7.

Why will the Texans have an advantage over a Colts team they already lost to this year? C.J. Stroud is significantly better than he was in Week 2 for one, and the Colts in that matchup started Anthony Richardson at quarterback (Richardson is out for the year and actually left that game with an injury). 

Sure Houston is on the road against Indianapolis, but the Texans are 8-6 in games Stroud starts. They also can win the division with a win and a Jacksonville loss to Tennessee, so that’s still in play. 

Basically, this is calling a Texans win in Week 18. That’s a playoff berth.