NFL playoff scenarios: Breaking down which Week 18 games actually matter from Lions-Vikings to Dolphins-Bills

The final Sunday of the NFL regular season is always an exciting one. Division titles are at stake and the final playoff spots are set to be clinched, as the changing of channels will be a must in order to watch the games of utmost importance. 

Week 18 is already set to be a memorable one in NFL history. Twenty teams remain in Super Bowl (televised by CBS and streamed via Paramount+) contention entering the final week, tied for the most with one week remaining in a full season (2006). Five playoff berths rare unclaimed, the most entering the final week since there were seven in 2020. Four division titles are undecided, the most entering a season finale since there were also four in 2014. 

What games have playoff significance for the Sunday slate? We got you covered:

Buccaneers at Panthers, 1 p.m. (ET), Fox

Does this game matter? Yes (for the Buccaneers)

The Buccaneers need to win this game in order to clinch the NFC South. This is essentially a “win-and-in” for the Buccaneers, who miss the playoffs entirely with a loss. A Tampa Bay loss means the New Orleans and Atlanta winner wins the NFC South. 

Browns at Bengals, 1 p.m. (ET), CBS, Paramount+

Does this game matter? No.

The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will be resting starters. The Bengals are eliminated from the playoffs. 

Vikings at Lions, 1 p.m. (ET) ,Fox

Does this game matter? Yes

The Vikings are still alive in the race for the final playoff spot, but barely. Minnesota needs a win over Detroit in Week 18 and plenty of help to get into the playoffs. The Vikings get in with a win, Seahawks loss, Packers loss and a loss by either the Saints or Buccaneers. If the Packers, Buccaneers, Saints, or Seahawks win — the Vikings are eliminated. 

The No. 2 seed is still in play for the Lions, who are currently the No. 3 seed. The Lions can be the No. 2 seed with a win, Cowboys loss, and Eagles loss. They are the No. 3 seed with a loss or if the Cowboys or Eagles win. 

Jets at Patriots, 1 p.m (ET), Fox

Does this game matter? No.

Both the Jets and the Patriots are eliminated from the playoffs. The Patriots could get the No. 2 pick with a loss and Commanders win. 

Falcons at Saints, 1 p.m. (ET), CBS, Paramount+

Does this game matter? Yes

The NFC South is at stake for both teams with the Buccaneers playing simultaneously. If the Buccaneers lose, the winner of the Saints and Falcons game will clinch the NFC South. The Falcons are eliminated from the playoffs with a Buccaneers win. 

The Saints can clinch a playoff spot with a win, Buccaneers win, Packers loss, and Seahawks loss. They are eliminated from the playoffs with a loss or a Buccaneers win and Packers win or a Buccaneers win and Seahawks win. 

Jaguars at Titans, 1 p.m. (ET), CBS, Paramount+

Does this game matter? Yes (for the Jaguars)

The Jaguars win the AFC South with the victory, no matter who wins the Colts and Texans game on Saturday. The Jaguars miss the playoffs with a loss. 

The Steelers also need the Jaguars to lose in order to make the playoffs (or the Bills). 

Seahawks at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. (ET), Fox

Does this game matter? Yes (for the Seahawks)

The Seahawks need a win and some help in order to get into the playoffs, but the formula is pretty simple. They need a win and Packers loss to make the playoffs. Seattle is eliminated with a loss or Green Bay win. 

The Packers, Vikings, and Saints will also be monitoring this game (if the Packers lose). 

Bears at Packers, 4:25 p.m. (ET), CBS, Paramount+

Does this game matter? Yes (for the Packers)

The Packers need a victory over the Bears to wrap up a playoff berth, the final one in the NFC. They can still make the playoffs with a loss, but need a Seahawks loss, Vikings loss, and a loss by either the Saints or Buccaneers. 

The Seahawks, Vikings, and Saints will be monitoring this game. 

Chiefs at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. (ET), CBS, Paramount+

Does this game matter? No.

The Chiefs have locked in the No. 3 seed in the AFC, so Patrick Mahomes and other starters will be resting with the wild card round next week. The Chargers are eliminated from the playoffs. 

Broncos at Raiders, 4:25 p.m. (ET), Fox

Does this game matter? No.

Both the Broncos and Raiders are eliminated from the playoffs. The game did have some meaning for the Steelers if they lost on Saturday, but the Steelers won so they don’t need a Broncos win. 

Eagles at Giants, 4:25 p.m. (ET), CBS, Paramount+

Does this game matter? Yes (for the Eagles)

The Eagles are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but can clinch the NFC East with a win and Cowboys loss. In that scenario, the Eagles get the No. 2 seed. The Eagles will be the No. 5 seed with a Cowboys win or a loss. 

The Lions also need the Eagles (and Cowboys) to lose to get the No. 2 seed. 

Rams at 49ers, 4:25 p.m (ET), Fox

Does this game matter? No.

Both San Francisco and Los Angeles will be starting backup quarterbacks. The 49ers have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the Rams have clinched a wild card berth and cannot win their division or move up in wild card priority given the second-place NFC East finisher will be ranked ahead of them. 

Cowboys at Commanders, 4:25 p.m. (ET), Fox

Does this game matter? Yes (for the Cowboys)

The Cowboys clinch the NFC East with a win. If the Cowboys lose and Eagles win, Dallas will be the No. 5 seed. Dallas can also win the NFC East with a loss and a Philadelphia loss. 

The Lions also need the Cowboys (and Eagles) to lose to get the No. 2 seed. 

Bills at Dolphins, 8:20 p.m. (ET), NBC

Does this game matter? Yes 

The winner of this game wins the AFC East. A Bills victory gives them the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but there are other scenarios at play if the Bills do lose. Buffalo clinches a playoff spot with a Jacksonville loss thanks to Pittsburgh beating Baltimore. 

The Dolphins have a playoff berth clinched, but will clinch the AFC East — and the No. 2 seed — with a win. Miami clinches the No. 6 seed with a loss. 

The Steelers also need the Bills to lose in order to make the playoffs (if the Jaguars win).