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Morgan McKenzie

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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 5, 2021: Model backing Patriots, Packers

Written by on October 7, 2021

Few teams have looked as impressive as the Dallas Cowboys (3-1), who knocked off the Panthers from the ranks of unbeatens last week. Led by quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas boasts a top-five offense as well as an opportunistic defense that’s forced the second-most turnovers. A pivotal divisional matchup on the Week 5 NFL schedule awaits as the Cowboys host the Giants (1-3). New York is coming off its first win of the season, but the Cowboys are seven-point favorites in the Week 5 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Elsewhere in the NFC East, the Eagles (+4) are underdogs to the Panthers in the latest Week 5 NFL spreads. Washington will host a Saints squad that just allowed Daniel Jones and the Giants to get their first victory. New Orleans is a one-point favorite in the latest NFL Vegas odds in a matchup where the victor will crawl over .500. All of the NFL lines are listed below, and before making any Week 5 NFL picks on these games or others, be sure to see the Week 5 NFL predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 5 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Patriots (-9.5) cover the spread against the Texans in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can make the case that Houston’s Week 4 showing versus Buffalo was the worst for any team this season. Houston’s minus-23 net passing yards in the first half were the fewest by any team before halftime this millennium. The situation didn’t improve in the second half, as the team finished with 61 net passing yards. Houston quarterback Davis Mills was sacked three times and threw four interceptions.

Mills will be under center again with Tyrod Taylor on injured reserve and will face a Patriots defense that kept Tom Brady out of the end zone in Sunday’s reunion game. The Patriots have allowed just three passing touchdowns this season, the third-fewest in the league. The model has Houston struggling against the Patriots’ elite defense as the Texans fail to produce 90 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is able to build off his impressive Week 4 performance and throw for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL predictions: The Packers (-3.5) cover on the road against the Bengals in a matchup of 3-1 teams. Green Bay is coming off its third straight win, as it took down the Steelers, while the Bengals barely squeaked by the winless Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.

Cincinnati’s win was costly, however, as it lost the NFL’s third-leading rusher, Joe Mixon (ankle). He is listed as week-to-week, as is wide receiver Tee Higgins, who has missed the team’s last two games. Their injuries will put plenty of pressure on sophomore quarterback Joe Burrow, which is what the Bengals want to avoid due to their inability to protect the Heisman winner.

Cincinnati has allowed sacks on 9.3 percent of its quarterback drop-backs, which is the fifth-highest mark in the lead. The model says the Packers will cover the spread, while the Over (49.5) will hit in almost 60 percent of simulations.

How to make Week 5 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.

Week 5 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Thursday, Oct. 7

Rams at Seahawks (+1.5, 54.5)

Featured Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, Oct. 10

Jets at Falcons (-3.5, 44)

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets

Dolphins at Buccaneers (-10.5, 48)

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins

Eagles at Panthers (-4, 45.5)

Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Saints at Washington (+1, 44.5)

Featured Game | Washington Football Team vs. New Orleans Saints

Titans at Jaguars (+4, 48.5)

Featured Game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

Lions at Vikings (-8, 49.5)

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

Broncos at Steelers (-1, 40.5)

Featured Game | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos

Packers at Bengals (+3.5, 49.5)

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers

Patriots at Texans (+9.5, 39.5)

Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

Bears at Raiders (-4.5, 45.5)

Featured Game | Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears

Browns at Chargers (PK, 49.5)

Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

Giants at Cowboys (-7.5, 51)

Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

49ers at Cardinals (-5, 53)

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Bills at Chiefs (-2.5, 56.5)

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Monday, Oct. 11

Colts at Ravens (-7, 48)

Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

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