NBA odds preview: Why Victor Wembanyama, the Defensive Player of the Year favorite, is not a surefire pick

A year ago, I advised bettors not to put their money on Victor Wembanyama in the Rookie of the Year race. Obviously, that worked out poorly for me. The logic was based in part on the award’s guard-heavy history, but more so on the odds available. Wembanyama had minus-money odds at most books, and implied odds above 50% for a player we hadn’t seen in a game yet seemed preposterous. Preposterous might be Wembanyama’s middle name.

So here we are again. This time, Wembanyama is the favorite not among rookies, but among the very best and most proven defenders in all of basketball. Once again, he is a minus-money favorite. This time it’s to win the 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year trophy. As of this writing, the best odds you’ll find are -160 at FanDuel. That implies that Wembanyama’s odds of winning are 61.54%. And once again, I am telling you to stay away.

Remember, Rookie of the Year is not beholden to the NBA’s 65-game awards minimum. Defensive Player of the Year is. What are the odds that Wembanyama plays 65 games this season? Certainly greater than 61.54% — he played 71 games a year ago and has no long-term injury concerns beyond his unusual body type — but far below 100% simply because of how random the NBA can be. All it takes is one hard fall, one tweaked ankle, one lingering hamstring issue, and that 65-game marker is in jeopardy. If your heart is set on betting Wembanyama, my advice would be to wait a month or two and see if there’s ever an injury scare that gives you more favorable odds. You’re just not losing out much by skipping -160. If Wembanyama misses 18 games, the ticket is an automatic loss.

But that doesn’t mean 65 or more games equals an automatic win. To actually take this award home, Wembanyama would probably have to buck at least two historic trends. Defensive Player of the Year winners are almost universally the leaders of great defenses, and those great defenses are almost always a key component in an enormously successful season. Every winner since 2008 has played for a top-five defense. The Spurs had the NBA‘s No. 21-ranked defense last season. Every winner in that span has been on a playoff team, and if you’re thinking Wembanyama could sneak in through the Play-In Tournament, the only player seeded outside of the top six to win in this window was Tyson Chandler in 2012. The Spurs were the No. 14 seed in the Western Conference last season.

You can of course bake in some improvement based on San Antonio’s youth. You could also argue that San Antonio’s defense allowed only 111.2 points per 100 possessions when Wembanyama was on the floor, which would have ranked fifth among all NBA defenses had that been San Antonio’s defensive rating across the entire season. But ultimately, these gaps are simply too great for me to bridge. Even allowing for my belief that Wembanyama is the NBA’s best defender, I cannot in good conscience advise anyone to bet on him to win this award. I am fully prepared for him to make me look foolish yet again.

But that means that we are previewing Defensive Player of the Year underdogs in this space. As of this writing there are four-digit or longer odds on every other candidate on the board. So let’s attempt to figure out whose odds stand out in a world in which Wembanyama’s do not. As Wembanyama is the only candidate with odds in our typical favorite range, we’ll only be splitting our options into two groups for this race.

The non-Wembanyama favorites

The following players have odds between +1000 and +2500

We have five candidates in this price range, and I’m immediately going to knock out the two most famous among them. I’m not touching Rudy Gobert (+1500). He had his redemption arc a year ago. Even if Minnesota’s defense remains elite, there are so many ways it could fall off of its No. 1 perch. His rim-protection numbers face a similar perception issue. No matter how good they are, they’re likely to pale in comparison to Wembanyama’s. Couple all of that with the hesitance there will be to give him a fifth trophy after what happened in the Western Conference finals and I just can’t see Gobert winning without several contenders getting hurt.

Anthony Davis (+2500) has publicly griped about never winning the award. He might have a point. He’s a better playoff defender than Gobert and has certainly played Defensive Player of the Year-caliber defense for the bulk of his prime. But his candidacy is shaky for the same reasons Wembanyama’s will be. He’s not going to play for a top-five defense. He’s not going to come close. The Lakers finished 17th last season and did nothing to improve at the point of attack, which was their primary weakness. JJ Redick has already committed to an offense-first starting lineup. If the Lakers have a winning season, it will be because Davis made a bad defense average and a good offense great. You’re obviously getting much longer odds on Davis than you are on Wembanyama, so I wouldn’t say that I fully object to a sprinkle, but once you factor in the reality that he’s only played 65 games or the shortened-season equivalent in two of the past six seasons and I, personally, am sitting this out. If you think the Lakers are trading for more defense, though? Go ahead, take your swing.

I’m on the fence about Bam Adebayo (+1700). He has some of the same “he’s due” energy that Davis does and has similarly complained about snubs, but he plays on a better defensive team for a better defensive coach. He’s also younger and more durable. The metrics and the eye-test certainly say “Defensive Player of the Year worthy.” I don’t have a compelling reason not to take Adebayo besides resource allocation. For reasons I’m about to explain, I just like other candidates better, and if you take too many candidates for a single award you limit your profitability. History tells me Adebayo gets the “always a bridesmaid” treatment. He may or may not deserve better, and if you think he does, I won’t object to a pick.

But my two favorite picks in this range are Chet Holmgren (+1800) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (+2500). As The Ringer’s Michael Pina recently detailed, Oklahoma City’s defense has a chance to be historic. Here’s the simple explanation: the Thunder ranked No. 4 last season, and then added the second- and fifth-ranked defensive players in all of basketball by EPM in the offseason. The lone significant rotation piece they lost, Josh Giddey, was the worst defender on the team by EPM who appeared in more than half of their games. They effectively turned one bad defender into two great ones. You could argue they have six All-Defense-caliber defenders depending on how much you value Cason Wallace‘s potential and the turnovers Shai Gilgeous-Alexander generates. Holmgren’s defensive profile is obvious. He’s going to block a ton of shots and he’s deceptively useful on the perimeter. Really, though, his argument is going to be “primary rim-protector on the best team.” Historically, that player is almost always in the race.

Jaren Jackson Jr. actually won the award in 2023, but that has largely been forgotten in the wake of a disappointing FIBA World Cup performance and the injury-riddled Grizzlies season that followed. Here’s a reminder: Jackson is the only player besides Wembanyama to block five shots per 100 possessions while playing at least 1,500 total minutes since the 2015-16 season. Jackson had to play center last season. He is at his best defensively as a roving power forward. Zach Edey can fulfill the Steven Adams role defensively for Memphis. Jackson is going to be back at his preferred position this season, and the Grizzlies finished No. 3 and No. 6 in defensively in the two seasons preceding last year’s disaster. Jackson is the “great numbers on a great defense” candidate.

The long shots

The following player have odds longer than +2500

Full disclosure: Evan Mobley shouldn’t be in this group. He’s at +800 at Caesars right now. But we go by the longest available odds, and for whatever reason, BetRivers is offering +3000 on Mobley as of this writing. I can’t explain that disparity, but if there’s any part of you that wanted to bet Mobley, just know that there’s currently a questionable line available for you to take. Mobley finished third in 2023 (and was my pick at the time), and the major advantage he has is that he’s not Cleveland’s only elite rim-protector. In the long run, it probably doesn’t make sense for him to keep playing with Jarrett Allen. In the short-term, it ensures Cleveland won’t get killed defensively in the minutes that he rests. That’s an advantage in the race to secure a top-five ranking, and he’s the best perimeter defender of any of the bigs we’ve covered.

Speaking of perimeter defense, I like longer-shot plays on OG Anunoby (+4000) and Herb Jones (+7000). Their situations are quite similar. They are both primarily wing defenders, but roster circumstance is going to force them to defend some centers. If their team defenses succeed, the credit will go to them. While I typically don’t endorse betting perimeter players (they win once or twice per decade), it’s worth remembering that there are usually far more bigs in the race. It’s much easier for a perimeter player to carve out a niche for himself. For the same reason, I’d endorse a +10000 sprinkle on Jalen Suggs. He isn’t the best defender on the Magic, but Jonathan Isaac won’t play enough minutes to win this award. In all three cases, you’re taking the player who will likely be the face of a possible top defense. Considering how closely tied this award is to the five best defenses, that’s generally a strategy I’d endorse at these prices.

My last home-run swing is yet another former winner. Golden State’s roster is geared much more towards defense this season than it has in years past, and while he’s obviously long in the tooth, I can’t ignore Draymond Green at +15000 at multiple books. They defended at a top-five level when Green was on the floor last season, and De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson are big upgrades on Klay Thompson and Chris Paul defensively. Actually getting into the top five over the course of the full season is unlikely, but hey, we’re getting 150-to-1 here on perhaps this generation’s best defender. That’s great upside.