MLB predictions, picks, best bets: Why pitching matchup bodes well for Aaron Judge, ride with Dodgers’ offense

Brace yourselves, this could well be the last day of 2024 with multiple Major League Baseball games. The Friday slate features the Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series and the Cleveland Guardians hosting the New York Yankees for Game 4 of the American League Championship Series. 

Thursday gave us an insane first game — Game 3 of the ALCS might well be the best game of the playoffs — and then a Dodgers blowout. 

What’s in store for Friday’s slate? Let’s take a look. 

Dodgers at Mets, 5:08 p.m. ET

RHP Jack Flaherty vs. LHP David Peterson

Flaherty was inconsistent though mostly good after the Dodgers acquired him in July. In his 10 regular-season starts, he had a 3.58 ERA (108 ERA+) while striking out 61 in 55 1/3 innings. He wasn’t very good in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres, but in Game 1 of the NLCS, he went out and dominated, working seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball. Will the Mets see the ball better now at home with such a short turnaround? It’s always possible a second look provides a better opportunity. Before Game 1, the Mets hadn’t seen him in years. 

Peterson had a 2.90 ERA in the regular season. He had three great starts and two bad ones in September, alternating between good and bad. His first three outings in the playoffs were good for 6 1/3 scoreless innings. In Game 1 of the NLCS, however, the Dodgers got him for three runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. 

The play: Dodgers over 3.5 runs (-145)

The Dodgers scored 24 runs in their five NLDS games. They’ve scored 30 runs in their four NLCS games. They averaged 5.2 runs per game in the regular season. Mets pitchers can’t stop walking Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts are hot right now. If the Mets want to win this game, they’ll gonna have to outslug the Dodgers. That offense is just relentless right now, so I’m riding with them. 

Yankees at Guardians, 8:08 p.m. ET

RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Gil led the majors in walks this season with 77 and that came in just 151 2/3 innings. He also struck out 171, though. He hasn’t yet appeared in the playoffs and was bad in his last two regular-season starts. The Guardians last saw him on Aug. 20, when he gave up three runs on three hits and six walks in three innings. The Guardians won that game. 

Williams has had a longer layoff than Gil. He hasn’t pitched in game action since Sept. 22. He had a 4.86 ERA in 76 innings this season, his second in the majors. The home/away splits are both small samples, but Williams was 0-7 with a 6.55 ERA at home and that just looks scary for the Guardians. He faced the Yankees on Aug. 22 and gave up three runs on four hits and five walks in 4 1/3 innings, taking the loss. That was on the road, too, where he’s been better. 

The play: Aaron Judge over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)

He’s now homered in back-to-back games and he did so against Emmanuel Clase in Game 3. It wasn’t even a bad pitch. We know how much Judge hits his homers in bunches. A great recent example is a five-game stretch from Sept. 21-26, where he went 8 for 15 with five homers (one in each game), eight RBI and eight runs. 

Oh, and guess what? Judge saw Williams on Aug. 20 and homered in his second at-bat.