MLB predictions, picks, best bets: Fernando Tatís stays hot for Padres, Mets ride vibes to beat Phillies

What a treat to have another four-game day, especially with the way these playoffs have gone. It’s been incredible action. So many big hits, notably homers, along with great pitching. Most of the games have been close to the end and the duds have been few and far between. And now we get four more!  

As is customary in these parts, let’s grab some gambling plays while we’re here. 

Guardians at Tigers, 3:08 p.m. ET

RHP Alex Cobb vs. The Kitchen Sink

Cobb has been walking wounded for nearly a year. His latest issues were a fractured fingernail and blister on his pitching hand. He’s only made three starts all year and the last was Sept. 1. He hasn’t seen the Tigers. The Guardians have a stellar bullpen — even if it was touched up in Game 2 — that’ll be well rested after days off before and after Game 2. 

The Tigers also have a very good bullpen, albeit an inferior group overall. They are greatly rested after the Tarik Skubal start in Game 2. This game will feature a bunch of them in chaotic fashion. I was messing around above with the “kitchen sink” comment, but barely. We know the Tigers will likely use an opener and then get length, at some point, from Brant Hurter. 

The play: Under 7 runs scored (+100)

This is such a difficult series to handicap. The surest bet feels like one of the two teams not scoring very many runs. We’ve seen each get shutout so far in this series. The five-run first inning for the Guardians feels like an outlier, too, and that the rest of the series we’ll see low-scoring games. And, yes, I realize seven sounds really low. It is low. If you predict the final score, though, you’d likely have something like 4-2 or 3-1 or 3-2, right? Those all win here and they might even sound high.  

Phillies at Mets, 5:08 p.m. ET

LHP Ranger Suárez vs. LHP José Quintana

Suárez was one of the best pitchers in baseball for a little more than two and a half months. His regression had already started and then he hurt his back. He returned from injury in late August only to finish with a whimper (7.79 ERA in last four starts). Can he flip the switch? He finished poorly in 2023 and then was stellar in the playoffs. 

Quintana had a 0.74 ERA in his last six starts and then threw six scoreless innings in Milwaukee last week in the Wild Card Series. 

The play: Mets +100

Vibes? The Mets being at home? Quintana over Suárez? Probably all of the above. It just feels like the Mets will close this thing out. 

Plus, this series has been incredibly unpredictable ever since I cashed the Zack Wheeler under earned runs allowed prop in Game 1, so why would I throw more money away instead of just enjoying the nonsense? 

Yankees at Royals, 7:08 p.m. ET

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Seth Lugo  

Schmidt returned from injury in September and had a 3.65 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. The Royals haven’t seen him this year. These are only eight-start samples apiece — and it’s all broken up by injury — but Schmidt was far better on the road (1.39 ERA) vs. at home (4.50). 

Lugo last saw the Yankees on Sept. 10 and threw seven scoreless innings with only three hits allowed and 10 strikeouts. He was worse at home than on the road, but it isn’t too extreme (3.36 vs. 2.62). 

Expect both teams to be aggressive in going to the bullpen, if need be, since they’ve had days off both before and after Game 2.  

The play: Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-160)

Witt just went 0 for 10 in Games 1 and 2 in Yankee Stadium and heard plenty about it. It’s not like he was in an extended slump, either, as he went 3 for 9 with two RBI in Baltimore. That was a series where the Royals only scored three runs, too. 

He returns home for the first time since Sept. 22 and he hit a ridiculous .382/.441/.676 in Kauffman Stadium this season.  

I’m not sure which team wins here, but I’m confident Witt will be the Royals’ offensive centerpiece again. 

Dodgers at Padres, 9:08 p.m. ET

“All hands on deck” vs. RHP Dylan Cease

The Dodgers are in desperation mode now and it looks like rookie Landon Knack along with the bullpen. I wouldn’t expect anyone to get more than six outs here.

Cease is on three days’ rest and this will be the first time in his career that he’s started under those circumstances. Gotta love the playoffs! The Dodgers got him for five runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings in Game 1. He struck out five and walked two. The three-run homer to Shohei Ohtani was the biggest blow. He was better at home (3.03 ERA) than on the road (3.83) this season. 

The play: Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-155)

I was expecting to see this number bump to 2.5. Though we have to deal with a decent amount of juice at -155, it’s not prohibitive at all. Tatis is on a run. He’s going nuclear here in the playoffs. He’s now 10 for 19 with two doubles, four homers, seven RBI and eight runs in five playoff games so far. He’s gone over this prop every single game with 4, 4, 3, 9, 4 H+R+RBI, respectively, by game.