2023 NFL playoff picture: How white hot Joe Flacco, Browns can win AFC North, land No. 1 seed

If you’re feeling nostalgic and wondering why, don’t immediately pinpoint the holidays — it might very well be Joe Flacco making the world feel like it was 2013 all over again. A decade ago, January Joe set the world on fire with an all-time playoff run that netted the Ravens a Super Bowl victory and Flacco a couple of big bags. 

Flacco improbably has the 2023 Browns hurtling towards a playoff berth after their latest win, a dominant 36-22 road win in Houston. Lest you think the 38-year-old veteran is riding an elite defense’s coattails, peep the stats: Flacco went 27-of-42 for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Yes, he threw two picks but the rapport between he and Amari Cooper hit record-breaking levels, with the former first-round picks hooking up 11 times for 265 yards and two of Flacco’s scores.

Sure, the Texans were starting backup quarterback Case Keenum, but there will be no sympathy from Cleveland, not with the Browns trotting out Flacco as their fourth starting quarterback this season. Flacco is pulling this yesteryear magic out while playing behind a mostly-backup/definitely banged-up offensive line. 

Flacco’s now dropped back 40+ times in all four of his games for Cleveland and has thrown for 300+ yards in the last three, with a total of 10 touchdowns over the four games. The Browns are 3-1 in his starts, making Flacco the perfect poster boy for 2023, the Year of the Backup in the NFL. 

How far can the Browns go with Flacco under center? At 10-5, they’re all but a lock to make the playoffs — the odds are north of 99 percent for Cleveland to end up in the postseason. I’m curious to see if they can crack the door not just for the AFC North but the No. 1 seed in the AFC as well. 

Let’s be clear here: this is HIGHLY unlikely. The Browns have a greater than 99.9 percent to make the playoffs but just a 13 percent chance to win the division and a 3 percent chance to steal the top seed in the AFC. 

But here’s how it can happen.

Step 1: Win out 

This is pretty viable and a must for the Browns to get the top seed. The Browns host the Jets next week before playing the Bengals on the road to close out the season. Cleveland will probably be favored in both games. Losing out would put their playoff status in some jeopardy — a single win clinches for them. But winning out leaves the division and top seed very much alive — their odds for the No. 1 seed would be around 12 percent, while also giving them a 30 percent chance to win the AFC North.

Step 2: Win the AFC North (with help from Baltimore)

The Browns can’t clinch the top seed without winning the division, obviously. So they’ll need the Ravens to throw them a bone and lose some football games. Assuming Cleveland wins out, the Browns need the Ravens to lose two of their three games to finish in a 12-5 tie with Cleveland. The two teams split the head-to-head matchups but the Browns swept the AFC South (Baltimore lost to Indy) and Cleveland would, in this hypothetical, have a better conference record even if they shared a record in common games. If one of the Ravens hypothetical losses are to the Steelers, the Browns would hold the division record tiebreak. 

Step 3: Get help from the Chiefs and Dolphins

Now here’s where the Browns REALLY need some unlikely help. 

The Dolphins have tough matchups down the stretch which makes an 11-6 finish viable. However, the Browns can beat the Dolphins for the No. 1 seed at 12-5 … assuming the Dolphins loss is to the Bills in Week 18. 

The biggest problem is the Chiefs. Kansas City is currently 9-5 but if they win out and the above happens, they’re likely to steal the No. 1 seed. (The Ravens are favored currently but if they go 1-2, things change, obviously.) Kansas City would then need to go 2-1 at worst, but the Chiefs get the Raiders (Christmas Day), Bengals and Chargers, all three of whom are starting backup quarterbacks. 

Kansas City’s been vulnerable enough, but if the door opens up enough for Cleveland to steal the top seed and get a bye, Patrick Mahomes could slam it shut quickly.

Cleveland making the postseason with all these injuries is improbable enough but we’re almost certainly going to see them get in there. No one should want to play them with that defense and Joe Flacco. Heaven forbid the NFL gives January Joe the top seed in the AFC and really lets him cut loose in an AFC bracket riddled with quarterback injuries.