UFC 306 predictions — Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Fight card, odds, expert picks, preview, prelims

Mixed martial arts’ largest promotion makes its much-hyped debut at the Sphere in Las Vegas. UFC 306, dubbed Noche UFC, promises a visual spectacle honoring Mexican Independence Day weekend and two title fights atop Saturday’s card.

UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley meets top contender Merab Dvalishvili in a modern-day striker vs. grappler matchup. O’Malley defeated Dvalishvil’s close friend Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 to become champ, paving the way for Dvalishvili to challenge for the title and avenge his teammate.

The co-main event sees Mexico’s Alexa Grasso defend her women’s flyweight title in a third consecutive fight against arguably the best women’s 125-pound fighter in history, Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso leads the series 1-0-1 following their most recent bout at Noche UFC last year, where a controversial 10-8 score for Grasso led to a split draw.

“It’s Noche, but I feel like it’s not that Noche because there are so many ingredients added. It’s UFC 306 and the main event features [fighters from] U.S.A. and Georgia,” Grasso told CBS Sports. “It’s Riyadh Season’s first event. I actually really like this idea because with all this showing of one country’s culture, it’s such a cool thing. I hope in the future if it’s going to start with Mexico right now, maybe in the future UFC will do the same thing for all other countries to embrace their culture and show the world not only fighting, but also bring in the culture of each country.”

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 306 fight card, odds

• Sean O’Malley (c) -145 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +125, bantamweight title
• Alexa Grasso (c) -140 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +120, women’s flyweight title
• Diego Lopes -185 vs. Brian Ortega +155, featherweights
• Daniel Zellhuber -225 vs. Esteban Ribovics +185, lightweights
• Ronaldo Rodriguez -145 vs. Ode Osbourne +120, flyweights
• Norma Dumont -115 vs. Irene Aldana -105, women’s bantamweights
• Manuel Torres -125 vs. Igancio Bahamondes +105, lightweights
• Yazmin Jauregui -500 vs. Ketlen Souza +380, women’s strawweights
• Joshua Van -220 vs. Edgar Chairez +180, flyweights
• Raul Rosas Jr. -600 vs. Aoriqileng +440, bantamweight

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 306 picks, predictions

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

Campbell: This fight is the perfect style contrast in so many ways as Dvalishvili, through his spamming wrestling attack that has averaged six takedowns landed per three rounds, will look to put O’Malley routinely on his back while the champion will seek to make him pay for closing the distance by sniping with punches from the outside. Since Dvalishvili’s best offense is typically done at close range, he’ll need to be as responsible as ever in navigating when and how to crowd his talented opponent. He’ll also need to make O’Malley pay through ground-and-pound throughout his time spent on his back. But Dvalishvili doesn’t just have the best cardio in UFC, he has an almost unlimited supply. Provided he’s still standing at the conclusion of five rounds, this is a fight that’s very winnable for the challenger, who has also shown an extreme amount of recuperative skills when times get hairy. 

Brookhouse: Dvalishvili goes for takedowns and doesn’t stop. That’s the entire gameplan, and it’s impressive how well it works at a high level. The problem is, I don’t believe Dvalishvili is going to be able to secure those takedowns frequently enough, nor hold O’Malley on the ground reliably enough to get the win. Dvalishvili has a strange quality where he is frequently hurt by strikes but has never been finished by them. O’Malley has the skills to change that whenever the fight is on the feet. I don’t know that I buy Dvalishvili winning on the scorecards and the possibility of a finish is almost entirely in the champ’s favor. 

Mahjouri: The champion showed incredible poise in dethroning Aljamain Sterling. O’Malley frustrated Sterling by fending off takedowns before catching him wide open with a lightning-fast punch. Dvalishili’s smash-mouth style and striking inefficiencies leave him open. If Henry Cejudo can sting him, O’Malley can put him down. “Suga” will have a tougher time with Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling than Sterling’s methodical approach. The fight might trend in Dvalishvili’s favor the longer it goes, but O’Malley is no slouch down the stretch. O’Malley cruised through five rounds with Marlon Vera and displayed heart by taking Round 3 from Petr Yan in a grueling battle. I’ll cautiously side with the champ to find the knockout inside three rounds.

Grasso vs. Shevchenko

Campbell: If it wasn’t for an errant 10-8 scorecard in Round 5 of their rematch last September, Shevchenko would have already been a two-time flyweight champion. But to ask such a fighter, now 36, to wait an additional year after coaching “The Ultimate Fighter” and defeat a determined champion like Grasso who keeps evolving with each performance might be too much to ask of the all-time great. Not with this much time and tape available. It’s possible that’s why Shevchenko has talked at length leading up to this trilogy about not letting the fight go to the judges. But Grasso’s striking was so effective in the last fight that it often turned Shevchenko into a wrestler. Look for Grasso to outwork the champion over the full 25 minutes in another close and exciting duel to close out the rivalry. 

Brookhouse: Shevchenko should be champion right now but a bizarre 10-8 score from one judge in the fifth round of the rematch resulted in a split draw. I just can’t shake the feeling that Shevchenko is just slightly better in a rivalry between two very evenly matched fighters, but I have very little confidence in the pick.

Mahjouri: There’s an argument that Shevchenko is the better fighter despite being winless in their two-fight series. Similar to Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira, it seems like a matter of time before Shevchenko scores. Their age is the difference maker. Grasso, 32, grew as a fighter between the first and second fights. Grasso arguably showed more promise drawing Shevchenko in the rematch than she did with an opportunistic submission in the title bid she was losing. Shevchenko, 36, has also been painfully staunch in her belief that she won the second fight and doesn’t need to make changes. Her repeated dismissiveness towards Grasso gives me too much pause. I’ll take Grasso by decision.

Wise: While O’Malley deserves respect as champion and someone who proved in beating Aljamain Sterling that he can prevent the takedowns that make Sterling and Dvalishvili so dangerous, I believe in the oddsmakers initial read on this fight. Dvalishvili opened around a -190 favorite before getting bet down all the way to a slight underdog on fight day. Betting lines are made to induce two-way action, which means that tons of money has come in on “Suga” here, but it’s among the most dramatic swings in a line I’ve seen in a title fight like this. Dvalishvili’s world-class stamina and gas tank will serve him well in dragging O’Malley into deep waters. While Sterling could not secure the takedowns on O’Malley, Dvalishvili is a whole other animal. The Georgian gets it done inside the Sphere.

Ortega vs. Lopes

Campbell: The difference between the two fighters in this all-action affair largely comes down to consistency. Lopes, 29, seems to be rapidly entering his peak riding a streak of four straight wins following a defeat in his UFC debut with stoppages in five of his last six wins overall. Ortega, meanwhile, never quite leaves you certain whether he’s coming or going. Although Ortega, 33, snapped a nearly two-year layoff in an emotional defeat of Yair Rodriguez in February, he lost three of his previous four before that fight and seems to constantly be battling injuries. Ortega will likely always remain a monster threat on the ground but doesn’t show enough attention to detail as it pertains to defense or head movement to be taken seriously as a consistent title threat anymore. This has all the makings to be a breakthrough victory for Lopes, especially should he use his high-pressure offensive style to lure Ortega into a firefight on the feet. 

Brookhouse: Ortega has a lot of miles on his body and doesn’t fight frequently enough to trust him against a young, aggressive opponent like Lopes. Ortega also has far too many defensive holes in his striking. Lopes’ game is tailor-made for opponents that leave openings as wide as Ortega. Dan Ige gave Lopes hell on a few hours’ notice at UFC 303 but the circumstances of that fight were so strange that Lopes should probably be given a pass. Lopes has prepared for this breakthrough opportunity twice over and he should be ready to deliver on Saturday.

Mahjouri: This is going to be so much fun. Both men wield a diverse arsenal of strikes and submissions, plus a willingness to take damage. It’s hard to assess Lopes’ close fight against Dan Ige because it was haphazardly booked hours before they fought. Ortega absorbs nearly 2.5 more strikes per minute, but title fights against featherweight greats Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway heavily skew those stats. Lopes has faced far lesser competition, yet has 10% worse striking and takedown defense. Ortega has taken a lot of damage, but he can lean on his experience to take two rounds from the streaking Lopes.

Who wins UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvil, and which UFC props should you target? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $1,200 on UFC main-card picks, and find out.