Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Fight prediction, odds, undercard, start time, live stream, expert picks

In the 11 years since he made his headlining pay-per-view debut against Floyd Mayweather, the fight capital of the world has been largely owned, from a boxing standpoint, by the commercial presence of Mexican icon Canelo Alvarez. 

That trend will only continue on Saturday as Alvarez returns in yet another Mexican Independence Day weekend pay-per-view clash, this time at T-Mobile Arena, to defend his unified super middleweight crown and boldly go head-to-head with a historically unique UFC 306 on the other end of the world famous Las Vegas strip at The Sphere.

The only negative associated with Alvarez’s high-profile return, at least from the standpoint of his critics, has been his choice of opponent. Edgar Berlanga, a 27-year-old unbeaten slugger, will enter as a sizeable betting underdog in the biggest fight of his career against Alvarez while more coveted matchups by fans — from David Benavidez to Terence Crawford — will need to wait. 

The main hook of the fight’s biggest selling point is that Alvarez, 34, will add another chapter to the celebrated boxing rivalry between Mexico and Puerto Rico (and the first since he edged out Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cotto in 2015) when he faces Berlanga, a native of Brooklyn, New York, who proudly leans on his family’s heritage while courting attention from celebrities like rapper Fat Joe. 

Whichever side of the court of public opinion you stand upon when it comes to his decision making, Alvarez remains confident and ready to put on another show, some four months removed from the dominant decision win against unbeaten Jaime Munguia during Cinco de Mayo weekend in Las Vegas. 

“I just can’t wait for Saturday night, this is going to be a great matchup for the people,” Alvarez said. “Mexico vs. Puerto Rico is always exciting. It’s an honor to fight on this date. Mexican Independence Day is very important to us. It’s very special and I’m very proud to fight for the Mexican people.

“I always put 100% into my fights and into training, no matter who I’m fighting. It’s the same mentality every fight. This is no exception.”

While there was never a question whether Berlanga had the commercial potential to one day share the ring with Alvarez, the opportunity came much faster than anyone would have anticipated. After opening his career with a notable streak of first-round knockouts in his first 16 fights, Berlanga struggled at times in decision wins over his next five fights and parted ways mutually with original promoter Top Rank. 

To Berlanga’s credit, he quickly signed with Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom Sport and reunited with trainer Marc Farrait. In February, he also began a new knockout streak by stopping unbeaten Padraig McCrory in the sixth round and has shown zero signs of fear when facing off or trading barbs with Alvarez on the build to the fight. 

“It’s going to be a big fight Saturday and it’s gonna be something amazing. We’re going to make history and become legends,” Berlanga said. “It means everything to be in this position. I’m not supposed to be here. I’ve been doubted since before I turned pro. But I knew that I was bound to end up in this position.”

The experience gap between the two fighters simply can’t be overlooked as Alvarez has nearly twice as many career knockouts as Berlanga has victories. But even though Alvarez has been installed as high as a 20-to-1 betting favorite, Berlanga has a few things going his way in this matchup, including everything from youth and a 5.5-inch height advantage to his confident swagger and a reputation as being a big puncher. 

“I’m a knockout artist. Every fighter wants the knockout,” Berlanga said. “We know that he’s a legend and we can’t just go swing for the fences. We have to do it the right way. Sixth-round knockout, that’s what we’re going for. But we’re ready for all 12 rounds if we have to.”

Just two years ago, it became a popular opinion to openly question whether Alvarez was slowing down with age, particularly throughout a three-fight stretch against Dmitri Bivol (Alvarez’s first loss since 2013) and in decision wins over Gennadiy Golovkin (in their trilogy) and John Ryder. But the hand injury, which limited his training during that stretch, appeared to be the true culprit as Alvarez has bounced back with authoritative wins over Jermell Charlo and Munguia to help him keep pace among the pound-for-pound top 10.

“I just want to show everyone that I’m still the best,” Alvarez said. “I still love this sport. When I stop loving it, you’ll know. I love my routine and I love going to the gym every day.”

To Berlanga, the fight is about even more than proving his critics wrong or establishing himself, for the first time, among the true elite in the sport. 

“I could be the face of Puerto Rican boxing after Saturday night,” Berlanga said. “I’ve wanted that for many years and now it’s my turn to do it.”

In addition to the big main event, PBC has loaded this card with former champions looking to knock off some ring rust after decent layoffs. WBA middleweight champion Erislandy Lara looks to defend his crown against former junior welterweight and welterweight king Danny Garcia in the co-main event. Garcia, 36, has just one fight in the last four years and gets this opportunity without ever fighting at 160 pounds. Elsewhere, former super middleweight champion Caleb Plant looks to get back in the win column when he takes on Trevor McCumby. Plant has also been somewhat inactive with just two fights in three years, including a decision loss at the hands of Benavidez. The card also features the return of former champions Rolando “Rolly” Romero and Stephen Fulton.

“Trevor himself knows that I’m not a bum, and that’s why he wants to fight me. He wants to be on the big stage, and that means facing a real fighter. Right now, he’s looking at a real fighter. He’s fought only bums, but he’s not fighting a bum now,” Plant said at the final press conference. “We’ll see what he brings on Saturday. He’s undefeated and he’s looking to stay that way. So he’ll come motivated.”

Let’s take a closer look at the complete fight card with the latest odds before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event.

Fight card, odds

• Canelo Alvarez (c) -1800 vs. Edgar Berlanga +900, WBC, WBA and WBO super middleweight titles
• Erislandy Lara (c) -250 vs. Danny Garcia +205, WBA middleweight title
• Caleb Plant -1400 vs. Trevor McCumby +750, super middleweights
• Rolando Romero -250 vs. Manuel Jaimes +205, junior welterweights
• Stephen Fulton -900 vs. Carlos Castro +550, featherweights

Where to watch

• Date: Sept. 14 
• Location: T-Mobile Arena — Las Vegas
• Start time: 8 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Prime PPV (Price: $89.95)

Prediction

Make no mistake, Berlanga possesses both the size and power to be a problem for Alvarez, particularly should the decorated champion take him lightly or get lured into a bit of a scrap early on. But, really, those scenarios would represent the extreme, best-case scenario for Berlanga and would require of him a certain level of smarts and craft that he has yet to put together in a single fight. 

Until Alvarez shows up old in a big fight, it’s hard to imagine that happening. Alvarez is not only so incredibly responsible defensively, and in terms of his head movement, he also owns one of the best chins in the history of the sport and has never been knocked down, even against power punchers like Golovkin, Danny Jacobs and the much larger Bivol. 

If the same Alvarez from the Munguia fight just four months ago enters the ring on Saturday, the reality of what he can do as an efficient sharpshooter and counter puncher has all the makings to be way too much for Berlanga to handle. 

For everything good you can say about Berlanga as an athlete or as a puncher, he’s visibly lacking the kind of poise and adaptability necessary to succeed at this level. And should he fall behind and feel the need to aggressively rally against Alvarez, all it would probably do is speed up his exit from the fight.

Alvarez admitted this week that he carried Munguia for most of their May fight and purposely chose not to finish his Mexican countryman. But given the trash talk between he and Berlanga, that’s a scenario that isn’t as likely to take place. 

Pick: Alvarez via TKO8

Who wins Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who was up more than $4,000 for $100 bettors over the past 65 picks, and find out.