UFC 306 predictions, odds, best bets: Sean O’Malley, Diego Lopes among top picks to consider

It’s rare that a venue draws as much attention for a fight card as the fights themselves. That’s the case this Saturday when UFC 306 comes to the Sphere in Las Vegas. UFC CEO Dana White has promised a dazzling visual experience for the card, taking advantage of the incredible Sphere technology while also paying homage to the history of Mexican fighters for “Noche UFC.”

But the UFC 306 fight card deserves attention on its own, with two championship fights atop the card. In the main event, Sean O’Malley defends the bantamweight championship against Merab Dvalishvili. The co-main event features a trilogy bout between women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champion Valentina Shevchenko.

The rest of the card features some compelling fights including a meeting between Diego Lopes and Brian Ortega that was originally set for UFC 303 before Ortega pulled out the night of the fight.

With the Sphere adding so much extra attention to the card, there’s sure to be even more action at the sportsbooks than the standard UFC event. With that in mind, we took a look at each of the five main card bouts to determine our best bet for each fight.

After going 2-3 with our best bets for UFC 305, we are sitting with a record of 20-24 on the year. That’s not a winning record, but we’re hoping to get out of the red before the end of the year and that starts by getting on track with UFC 306. Check out UFC betting sites if interested in picking any fight on this card.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne

Ronaldo Rodriguez -3.5 (+100)

We can get a bit of extra value here with the point spread at +100 rather than the straight moneyline of -148. This feels like a fight Rodriguez finishes before the final scorecards but Osbourne’s size advantage may be enough to allow him to muscle his way through some bad spots and make it to the final bell. Either way, Rodriguez is a tremendous pressure fighter and Osbourne has been finished in three of his four most recent fights, with a split decision win sandwiched in between. If it goes to a decision, Rodriguez should have build up a big enough lead on the scorecards to get the win, though Rodriguez could finish the fight at any point along the way.

Point spread bets in MMA are similar to moneyline bets with one major difference. If a fighter is -3.5, they must win by a total of more than 3.5 points when the scorecards are added together. For example: if a fighter wins by a score of 29-28 on all three scorecards, they would “win by” three points, losing the bet. A fighter winning by scores of 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 would “win by” five points, making the bet a winner. Wins by submission or knockout would also be considered a winning bet using MMA point spreads.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Zellhuber moneyline (-230)

Zellhuber is 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach while Esteban stands 5-foot-11 with a 69-inch reach. That’s a big size advantage in Zellhuber’s favor. Takedowns are unlikely to factor into the fight, which means that Zellhuber should be able to utilize his reach in the striking game, even if he does get hit more frequently than you’d expect given his physical advantages. Ribovics has good power and is coming off a 37-second head kick knockout of Terrance McKinney, but Zellhuber should be the better fighter and find a way to scrap out a win in a competitive fight.

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

Diego Lopes moneyline (-180)

The props here are enticing but there are too many variables to fully commit. Lopes could win this fight by submission or knockout or Ortega’s toughness could allow him to gut through to the final bell. The only thing that feels certain is that this is a bad matchup for Ortega. This fight was supposed to happen at UFC 303 but Ortega pulled out at the last minute — literally withdrawing from the fight hours before it was to take place. Dan Ige stepped in to fight Lopes and Lopes did struggle at times before ultimately getting the decision win, but the circumstances of that fight were so odd that it’s hard to fault Lopes for an imperfect performance. Lopez is younger, more effective with his aggression and Ortega is there to be hit. Go with Lopes to take down a man with a lot more miles — and a lot more inactivity — in this one.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Fight to go the distance: Yes (-200)

The women’s flyweight title fight is a tough one to call. Grasso has one win over Shevchenko and in the rematch, they battled to a controversial split draw. Shevchenko was the slightly better fighter in the rematch but a 10-8 on one scorecard in favor of Grasso cost her regaining the title. These two are so evenly matched that picking an outright winner — or even method of victory — feels like a challenge. Grasso may have finished Shevchenko the first time around, but 65% of her career fights have gone the distance. Similarly, Shevchenko has a higher finish rate but five of her 10 most recent fights have gone the distance and finishing Grasso seems unlikely. Getting -200 on the fight to go the distance feels like a steal for the trilogy bout between these two.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Sean O’Malley moneyline (-135)

Our conservative plays continue into the main event. According to the odds, the two most likely outcomes are O’Malley via KO/TKO/DQ (+150) and Dvalishvili via decision (+165). Dvalishvili is a relentless takedown artist but is not a particularly accurate one. His takedowns come by shooting takedown after takedown until he is able to break through and drag the fight to the floor. O’Malley has decent takedown defense, though certain men, like Petr Yan, have been able to put him on the floor multiple times. O’Malley is a stud in the striking game, better than Dvalishvili at throwing strikes just as Dvalishvili is better at the wrestling end of things. Where things tilt O’Malley’s way is that the strikes are more direct paths to scoring points and even potentially finishing the fight. Dvalishvili not only has to score takedowns, he also has to contain O’Malley on the ground and score offensively on the ground. O’Malley should be able to do the more effective work in his spaces and either edge out a decision or connect with strikes that take Dvalishvili out.