On paper, the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the NFL. They have the game’s best player in Patrick Mahomes, who is on his way to being the best player ever, and they have a great coach in Andy Reid to go with a talented roster.
That, coupled with my usual tradition of starting the previous year’s Super Bowl winner in the top spot of my Power Rankings, has the Chiefs at No. 1 heading into the regular season. They will be attempting a three-peat, which has never happened in the NFL in the Super Bowl era.
But that doesn’t mean I am picking the Chiefs to win it all. Even though 2023 was the year to get the Chiefs when they struggled on offense for much of the season, they still found a way to win it all — and this team is better. But the burden of the three-peat will be too much.
The Chiefs will start in my top spot, but they won’t finish there. The Green Bay Packers will be the team to finish the season as the top team and Super Bowl champion.
The Packers are my pick for a variety of reasons. It starts with Jordan Love, who proved to many, including the Packers who gave him a mega-contract last month, that he is their long-term answer at quarterback. He’s only scratching the surface of what he can be and will be. He is going to be a star.
Then there’s the skill players. They are loaded. On the other side of the ball, the Packers have talent and now have a defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley who will get the best out of them. That unit will be much improved.
The Packers nearly beat the 49ers on the road in the playoffs last year as a bunch of wide-eyed kids. That experience will help get them ready for a playoff push and Super Bowl appearance this season.
The Packers will beat the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl. I have the Chiefs losing at home in the divisional round of the playoffs to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. The Bills will then beat the Jets at home to get to the Super Bowl.
The idea that the window is closed on the Bills is absurd. As long as Josh Allen is slinging it, they are a Super contender. One other thing: They aren’t broken up about Stefon Diggs not being around. It will be addition by subtraction. The defense will be better than it was a year ago.
So it will be Josh Allen vs. Jordan Love in the Super Bowl.
Not Patrick Mahomes.
Am I crazy to pick against Reid and Mahomes? Probably so. But call it a hunch.
There’s a reason teams don’t three-peat.
Biggest Movers
Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chiefs | They will earn the top seed in the AFC, based on a so-so division, but the AFC is loaded so it won’t be easy getting to the Super Bowl. The added speed outside will make them even tougher to defend. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 2 |  Packers | I love the mix of veterans and young rising players on this roster. Jordan Love is the real deal, which is why this is a Super Bowl pick for me. | 4 | 0-0-0 |
| 3 |  49ers | Getting receiver Brandon Aiyuk signed to a long-term deal was a good move. The roster is still loaded and Kyle Shanahan remains one of the league’s best coaches. | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 4 |  Bills | You can count them out if you want, but I won’t. Brandon Beane has done a nice job retooling this team. They have a nice mix of young and old. Oh, and Josh Allen. | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 5 |  Bengals | Joe Burrow is back, which means the Bengals are back. He has to stay on the field, but if he does they are a Super contender. | 2 | 0-0-0 |
| 6 |  Ravens | They will again push for the division title, but they have offensive line concerns. The other issue is winning playoff games with Lamar Jackson. | 3 | 0-0-0 |
| 7 |  Lions | They should once again push for a deep playoff run and more. Dan Campbell needs to stop being so reckless with his fourth-down decisions since his team is much better now. | 3 | 0-0-0 |
| 8 |  Texans | They had an outstanding offseason adding players to go with C.J. Stroud and Co. Now comes the tough part: Dealing with being the hunted. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 9 |  Jets | Aaron Rodgers is back, which changes this team’s dynamic. They need the offensive line to stay healthy. They also need a second-receiver emerge to be a Super contender. | 2 | 0-0-0 |
| 10 |  Cowboys | This appears to be a prove-it season for Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott since McCarthy is in his final year of a contract and Prescott didn’t get a long-term deal. Getting CeeDee Lamb signed was smart to get him back on the field. | 3 | 0-0-0 |
| 11 |  Eagles | They fell apart late last season and that has put coach Nick Sirianni in the crosshairs. The defense was bad last season, so that has to be the unit that turns this team around. | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 12 |  Jaguars | They crumbled late last season after a good start. But that was due to Trevor Lawrence injuries. He’s healthy, so expect the offense to be good. The defense has to be better. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 13 |  Buccaneers | They are the team to beat in the NFC South with Baker Mayfield leading the way. The roster skews young, but that’s never a bad thing. | 3 | 0-0-0 |
| 14 |  Dolphins | They will be a fun show to watch every week, but are they tough enough? Can they win big games late in the season and beat playoff teams? | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 15 |  Rams | Sean McVay did a heck of job getting this team to the playoffs last season. The challenge is even greater this time without Aaron Donald. It’s impossible to replace a player like that. | 6 | 0-0-0 |
| 16 |  Browns | Their entire season will be decided by how well Deshaun Watson plays — and how much. If he’s healthy, they have a talented roster around him. That’s the issue. | 2 | 0-0-0 |
| 17 |  Bears | The Caleb Williams hype is real, but now comes the tough part of living up to it. The roster is talented, but they might be a year away. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 18 |  Chargers | Jim Harbaugh will fix this team, but it might not happen this year. They will be physical and tough to beat on a weekly basis, but watch out next season. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 19 |  Steelers | They will be a perfect example of a team that can do a lot of things, but one that is held back by the quarterback play. Russell Wilson isn’t the savior. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 20 |  Falcons | By signing Kirk Cousins, they are the trendy pick in the division. Adding Matt Judon and Justin Simmons will help the defense, but they are behind Tampa Bay in my book. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 21 |  Titans | Will Levis will have a good season under Brian Callahan, which will keep them in a lot of games. But the real success will come next year in Callahan’s second season. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 22 |  Colts | Their season is about keeping Anthony Richardson on the field. If he’s healthy, they can win what is now a tough division. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 23 |  Cardinals | They will once again be a tough out on a weekly basis, but the talent pool isn’t quite there yet. They are building to something, but they need one more year. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 24 |  Seahawks | The Pete Carroll era is over, which means it’s on Mike Macdonald to get this team back to playing at a Super Bowl level. This is another team with offensive line issues that could wreck those chances. | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 25 |  Vikings | Can they resurrect Sam Darnold’s career? Even if they do, they are still the fourth team in the division. | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 26 |  Commanders | Jayden Daniels will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. But they have some other issues that could hold this team back. | 5 | 0-0-0 |
| 27 |  Saints | They have offensive line problems, some age creeping in on defense and there are questions about whether Derek Carr can take this team to high levels. Dennis Allen could be in trouble after this season. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 28 |  Broncos | Sean Payton will start his guy Bo Nix in Week 1, which is the right thing to do. They have to build to something, but it won’t be a team winning a lot of games this season. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 29 |  Giants | This might be a win-or-else season for Brian Daboll. It’s going to be a challenge to win in a good division with quarterback questions. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 30 |  Patriots | They should get on with it and play Drake Maye because this team isn’t going anywhere this season. For now, it’s Jacoby Brissett’s team. | — | 0-0-0 |
| 31 |  Raiders | Antonio Pierce will need to really work some magic to get this team to win seven games. The roster isn’t great. Gardner Minshew isn’t the answer at quarterback, either. | 7 | 0-0-0 |
| 32 |  Panthers | New coach Dave Canales faces a tough challenge to get Bryce Young turned around. The roster is better, but they are the fourth team in the NFC South. | — | 0-0-0 |
