UFC in 2024: Four burning questions surrounding the biggest Octagon stars heading into the new year

Mixed martial arts was abundant with headlines in 2023 and the sport is getting to a fast start this year. Four UFC title fights are announced, the ranks are filled with potential breakout stars and major acts like Jon Jones and Conor McGregor are expected back.

There are bound to be inquiries with so much going on. CBS Sports experts sat down to give our answers to some of the burning questions before the 2024 UFC calendar begins this week. Read on to see our thoughts on how the year will play out for some of the biggest stars in the sport.

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Let’s dive right in now to the questions and predictions from “Morning Kombat” host Brian Campbell as well as staff writers Brent Brookhouse and Shakiel Mahjouri.

Which champion will be the first to fall?

Unanimous: Sean Strickland

For as much fun as the full Sean Strickland experience has been atop the middleweight division in recent months, it’s difficult to imagine Strickland, without being a submission or one-punch knockout threat, finding sustained success. Yes, Strickland succeeded in disarming Israel Adesanya over five rounds to capture the title in a striking performance so flawless, it looked akin to a pitcher tossing a perfect game. But the physicality of top contender Dricus du Plessis makes him an altogether different problem for Strickland to try and solve. The South African slugger has quickly ironed out some of the sloppy technique that defined his early UFC wins and proved against former champion Robert Whittaker, in his shocking July upset, just how much of a handful he is to deal with. — Campbell

Who emerges as the next breakout star?

Campbell: Erin Blanchfield

At 24, it’s hard to miss Erin Blanchfield’s “aww shucks” demeanor outside of the cage, mostly because it’s such a stark contrast to the vicious scowl she wears inside of it. The nickname “Cold Blooded” couldn’t have gone to a more fitting martial artist. In just over two years since her UFC debut, Blanchfield has steamrolled the women’s 125-pound division, defeating former champions and title contenders like Jessica Andrade and Taila Santos along the way. The native of New Jersey enters a headlining opportunity in Atlantic City in March where she’ll face Manon Fiorot for a shot at the flyweight title. And the scary news is, she’s still getting demonstratively better each fight. Should Blanchfield reach the title level in 2024, she’s young and dominant enough to potentially become the face of the UFC women’s divisions for many years to come. 

Mahjouri: Tatiana Suarez

Analysts and hardcore fans have been buzzing about Suarez for eight years. It’s time for the world to see why. Suarez was marked as a world champion in the making upon winning “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016, but injuries delayed the inevitable year after year. Suarez returned to competition twice in 2023 following a 44-month layoff, mopping the floor with Montana De La Rosa and Jessica Andrade. It was wise of UFC to book her against former title challenger Amanda Lemos. It’s one last chance for her to calibrate her skills before a potential showdown with 115-pound champion juggernaut Zhang Weili. Suarez is expected to clean up against Lemos at UFC 298 before fighting for the women’s strawweight title later this year.

Brent Brookhouse: Manuel Torres

Torres could join the growing list of Mexican stars in the UFC who have broken through to the top level of the sport. Torres has the tools to be a must-watch fighter, with seven knockouts and six submissions across 14 professional victories. Many times, fighters with high finish rates see those numbers drop off a bit as they join the big leagues. Torres took 2:10 to score a knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series and secure a UFC contract. In his two UFC fights since, Torres has two first-round knockout wins. He’s now been placed in a position to further raise his profile, taking on Chris Duncan at the Feb. 24 Fight Night in Mexico.

How many times does Jon Jones and Conor McGregor fight combined?

Campbell/Brookhouse: For two fighters who have contributed so much to the UFC’s financial success over the last decade, it’s difficult to see them age. Jones, who returned in 2023 to equal McGregor’s claim as a two-division champion, is the greatest fighter in the sport’s history. McGregor, meanwhile, is the richest and most popular. But the way things are lined up now, it wouldn’t be surprising if each fought just once in 2024 and then, possibly, never again. Jones could easily retire once he finally returns from injury to defend his heavyweight title against former champion Stipe Miocic. And for McGregor, who is more likely of the two to keep fighting on, it has been difficult enough to get him into the cage at least once per year of late. Take the under. 

Mahjouri: The optimist will say two and the pessimist will say zero. The middle ground seems like a safe bet but I’m feeling generous. UFC president Dana White is fiercely determined to book Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, a fight scheduled for last November but delayed due to injury. I suspect Jones is eager to get a big payday against a high-profile winnable opponent. McGregor might be the bigger variable. He announced his return against Michael Chandler at International Fight Week, but it’s concerning the UFC has not confirmed the bout. McGregor’s announcement paired with USADA’s allegations about UFC trying to rush McGregor’s return make one fight in 2024 a viable prediction. Let’s aim for one fight each this year.

Which undefeated contender is the first to lose in 2024 (if any)?

Contenders include: Khamzat Chimeav, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Umar Nurmagomedov, Ilia Topuria, Ian Garry, Muhammad Mokaev.

Unanimous: Ilia Topuria

With respect to Chimaev and Rakhmonov, there’s an argument to be made here that Topuria is the best fighter of the mix. That doesn’t mean, however, he won’t be the first to take a loss. Topuria has an incredible shot at becoming world champion when he enters as a slight underdog at UFC 298 in February against Alexander Volkanovski, who not only turned 35 in September, but he was knocked out via head kick in his rematch with Islam Makhachev just three months ago. That, along with Topuria’s frightening talent, have many believing (rightfully so) that he’s a live dog heading into his first shot at the featherweight crown. But timing is everything and Volkanovski, who is unbeaten over his career at 145 pounds, didn’t get to this point by accident. Expect an incredible fight but it’s one in which Topuria can very much lose.