UFC Fight Night prediction — Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates: Fight card, start time, odds, live stream

Neil Magny is in a familiar spot. The 11-year UFC veteran will make his 34th walk to the Octagon on Saturday and look to turn back a highly-touted prospect. Carlos Prates is a huge betting favorite at UFC Fight Night. The Brazilian fighter is looking to ride the wave of Fighting Nerds’ teammates Caio Borralho and Jean Silva to the biggest win of his career.

Magny (29-13) is one of the most enduring fighters in the promotion. Last year, Magny broke former two-division UFC champion Georges St-Pierre’s record for most welterweight wins. Magny will tie Donald Cerrone and Andrei Arlovski for the second-most wins in any division (23) if he defies the odds by beating Prates. Magny is perilously clinging onto the No. 15 spot in the UFC’s official welterweight rankings. It seems like he’s been in this position forever. It’s hard to remember when Magny wasn’t ranked, but an inability to string together wins has him hanging on by a thread.

“Am I oblivious to what’s happened over the last couple of years? No,” Magny told CBS Sports’ Brian Campbell. “I’ve experienced the losses and how the performances look. At the end of it, I’ve seen guys like Michael Bisping and Glover Teixeira win titles in their late 30s and early 40s. Although unlikely, it’s possible.”

Check out the full interview with Neil Magny below.

Prates (20-6) is exactly the type of fighter you want to make a splash in the UFC. Prates’ insane finishing ability has held up in the UFC. The Muay Thai specialist has finished 18 of his 20 pro wins, his last 10 consecutively and four under the UFC umbrella. Prates credits his success to the team at Fighting Nerds. The Brazilian collective made an impressive splash in 2024. If Prates performs as expected against Magny, he’ll make it a combined 9-0 for Prates, Borralho and Silva this year.

“It brings a lot of good energy to the team,” Prates told CBS Sports of the fighters’ successes. “Everyone wants to be at the same place. It started with Caio. Myself, Jean and other guys at the gym wanted to be like Caio. He was the first to join the UFC. Everybody wanted to be like Caio. The young guys now want to be like us and training hard to be in the UFC one day.

“The team is like a family. We’re all like brothers. We try to help each other no matter what. I think that’s the main key.”

Reinier de Ridder is the name that stands out most on the UFC Fight Night undercard. The UFC debut of the simultaneous ONE Championship light heavyweight and middleweight titleholder is intriguing. Gerald Meerschaert will welcome de Ridder to the UFC middleweight division. Meerschaert has historically been a measuring stick for fighters with rankings potential, including Khamzat Chimaev, Joe Pyfer, Thiago Santos, Kevin Holland and Jack Hermansson.

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we predict the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 9 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates: Magny has become increasingly vulnerable over time with a third of his stoppage losses occurring in the last two years. That’s concerning against a finisher like Prates. The Brazilian fighter has stopped 90% of his victims, including all three UFC opponents. Prates boasts more than 100 Muay Thai fights and its evident from his style. Particularly effective is a step-in knee that he throws on an angle to the head or body. Magny’s weakness is his lack of finishing ability. The veteran welterweight leans on his length and endurance to win rounds over the long haul but lacks the offensive threats to deter a juggernaut like Prates. Magny will want to test Prates’ stamina over 25 minutes, leaning on his experience to bank late rounds. It’s unclear how potent Prates is in a five-round fight but I don’t think this lasts long enough to find out. Another point for the Fighting Nerds! Prates via KO2