UFC 308 predictions, odds, best bets: Max Holloway, Khamzat Chimaev prop among top picks to consider

Featherweight gold is on the line on Saturday night when Ilia Topuria puts his title on the line against former champion Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 308. The fight is Topuria’s first defense of the title and he will be looking to add a win over a legend to his resume.

Holloway has rattled off three consecutive victories entering this fight, most recently defeating Justin Gaethje in a bout for the ceremonial “BMF championship.” The Gaethje fight produced the greatest highlight of Holloway’s incredible career. After dominating the majority of the fight, Holloway pointed at the canvas, daring his heavy-handed opponent to stand and trade punches in the final seconds of the bout and then knocking Gaethje out cold.

Topuria is coming off his own highlight-reel moment. He faced Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298 and scored a brutal second-round knockout to claim the championship. A win over Holloway would cement Topuria’s place at the top of the 145-pound pecking order.

After going 2-3 with our best bets for UFC 307, we are sitting with a record of 25-29 on the year. That’s not a winning record, but we’re hoping to get out of the red before the end of the year and that can only happen by putting together a winning night with UFC 308. Check out UFC betting sites if interested in wagering on any fight on this card.

Let’s take a look at our picks for the best bet for each main card fight at UFC 308.

Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan

Armen Petrosyan +3.5 (-175)

As a reminder, point spread betting in MMA totals the final scorecards (i.e. a winner on the cards with three 29-28 scores would have won by three, meaning +3.5 for the losing fighter would be a winning bet) and any other method of victory also counts as a win. This is going to be a pure striking bout between two talented strikers. Magomedov is a kick-first fighter while Petrosyan will look to rely on closing distance and letting his hands go. On paper, it’s a competitive fight with Magomedov a -160 favorite. A minor Petrosyan upset isn’t out of the question but the safer play is to think he can at least win one round to hit the point spread.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Magomed Ankalaev to Win By KO/TKO/DQ or Aleksandar Rakic to Win by Decision (+125)

This combo line is available at DraftKings and covers the two ways I can see this fight playing out. Ankalaev is a capable, but not great, takedown artist and Rakic should be able to handle any time Ankalaev decides to try to wrestle. There probably won’t be too many times where that’s even in play since Ankalaev prefers to strike rather than grapple and recently said that he was told if he had a good fight, he would be in line for a title shot. Rakic spent the first round of his fight with Jiri Prochazka looking like a world-beater before Prochazka bit down on his mouthpiece and unleashed hell. Ankalaev could crack Rakic with big shots and get the stoppage at any point but if he doesn’t get the stoppage, there’s every possibility Rakic outworks him with sharper, more technical striking to edge out a decision. Either way, this bet covers those bases.

Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige

Lerone Murphy via decision (-160)

Murphy opened around -170 and is now in the -290 range. His mixture of striking and wrestling will be a handful for Ige, who is a similarly well-rounded fighter. Where things start to get out of control for Ige is in his tendency to get taken down and not be able to find a way back to his feet. With most other things being fairly even, Murphy’s ability to put Ige on his back and keep him there will likely be the deciding factor in the fight. It seems unlikely we get a finish in this one, which makes Murphy via decision the play.

Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Fight to go over 2.5 rounds (-125)

Chimaev is the favorite but there are so many questions about him at this stage. After blasting onto the UFC scene with two incredibly dominant wins in a 10-day stretch, he now has two fights in slightly more than two years. Injuries, illness, weight-cutting issues and inactivity have marred the past few years for someone once seen as a man who would capture UFC gold in short order. Nearly four and a half years later, Chimaev has a fight that may finally catapult him into a title shot. Beating Whittaker is no easy task, however, and Chimaev looked very human in his most recent fight, a decision win over Kamaru Usman who took the fight on two week’s notice and in his first fight at middleweight. Whittaker is a legend, but one who is on the back-half of his fighting career and who has been overwhelmed with power from men like Dricus Du Plessis, so a Chimaev win being expected is not a surprise. Whittaker is good enough and has enough tricks in his bag to force Chimaev to respect his game, which means we should see at least the start of the second half in this five-rounder.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway

Max Holloway +5.5 (+100)

Holloway is the trickiest task that has been placed in front of Topuria in his career. Yes, Topuria is coming off a win over Alexander Volkanovski, who bested Holloway multiple times, but Volkanvoski was already fairly cracked coming into the fight and didn’t have a great style for what Topuria brings to the cage. Holloway is a different animal, with more range and a crisp boxing style that will challenge what Topuria wants to do in the fight. Topuria’s takedowns are solid but Holloway has tremendous takedown defense to nullify that approach. All this is to say that, while Topuria as a favorite makes sense, but it’s not going to be an easy night for the champion. Holloway should win a few rounds and his legendary chin should hold up to where this fight goes to the cards and is close enough that we take the +5.5 on the legend with the extra insurance that Holloway finding a stoppage along the way still pays off.