UFC 296 predictions, odds, best bets: Alexandre Pantoja, Leon Edwards among top picks to consider

The final UFC card of 2023 is set to go down on Saturday when UFC 296 comes to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The card is topped by a pair of championship fights including the main event between welterweight champion Leon Edwards and two-time former world title challenger Colby Covington.

Covington has not fought since March 2022 when he took a decision over Jorge Masvidal while Edwards is riding the momentum of a pair of wins over Kamaru Usman to first win and then retain the welterweight title.

The co-main event features Alexandre Pantoja making the first defense of his flyweight title when he faces Brandon Royval. The pair previously met in August 2021 with Pantoja picking up the win by rear-naked choke in the second round.

The UFC 296 main card took a late hit when rising welterweight contender Ian Machado Garry was forced out of his bout with Vicente Luque due to illness. As of the time of writing this column, the UFC had not announced which undercard bout would be elevated to the main card to take the place of Garry vs. Luque.

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As with every UFC pay-per-view event, there will be plenty of action at sportsbooks around the country. As always, we are looking at each main card fight to identify the “best bet” for each bout. After a 3-2 result at UFC 295, our record for the year now stands at 31-30.

Let’s take a look at what we’ve identified as our choices for the best bets on the UFC 296 pay-per-view main card and close the year on a high note.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Tony Ferguson

Paddy Pimblett to win via decision (+200)

Fights like Pimblett vs. Ferguson are hard to navigate at times. I’m not sold on Pimblett as having a high ceiling and it’s easy to remember when Ferguson was one of the best lightweights in the world, even as he is currently on a six-fight losing skid. Ferguson is a live dog at +240, with his six losses coming against proven top lightweights, a group Pimblett is a far way from joining. Pimblett also lost to Jared Gordon, regardless of what the official result and judges’ scorecards read.

But Ferguson looks like a shell of what he was at his prime and it’s tough to picture him being able to navigate the problems a young, energetic fighter will put forth. I do think Ferguson will be able to handle going three rounds and making it to the scorecards through simply having grit and more experience against better fighters, which makes Pimblett via decision the play here.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

Over 1.5 rounds (-175)

Rakhmonov is a problem for everyone in the welterweight division. He’s a menace who can get the job done in many ways. Geoff Neal was able to slow a bit of the hype by giving Rakhmonov some problems before being submitted in the third round, but good fighters navigate those moments and find ways to win.

Thompson is an experienced fighter who has been in with plenty of elite fighters and this will be a big test for Rakhmonov. Taking the over on rounds here makes sense given that experience and the fact that Thompson has only been stopped once in his career, which came against Anthony Pettis in the final seconds of Round 2.

Thompson, much like Ferguson, could absolutely spring an upset here but the odds don’t match the risk you’d be taking at +450. The odds of neither man getting finished in the first round and a half make a lot more sense.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

Alexandre Pantoja moneyline (-190)

Royval is a solid fighter and earned the title shot with a three-fight winning streak. That streak started after a submission loss to Pantoja in August 2021. There’s no reason to believe anything has changed enough for either man that would cause the result to be any different on the second go-round.

If anything, Pantoja is more confident and dangerous than ever after edging out Brandon Moreno to become flyweight champion. Pantoja is wildly tough and has managed to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Deiveson Figueiredo and Moreno without being stopped while having better jiu jitsu than Royval. It’s hard to imagine where Royval has the edge to actually pull off the win beyond landing a perfect shot.

Run with the champion in the co-main event.

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

Leon Edwards moneyline (-160)

We’ve all heard the talk of Covington’s resume, but let’s go through it one more time. Covington’s most recent wins came against:

• Jorge Masvidal, who was in the middle of a four-fight losing skid prior to retiring from the sport.
• Tyron Woodley, who suffered a rib injury, was in the middle of a four-fight losing skid and is now retired from the sport.
• Robbie Lawler, who was in the middle of a four-fight losing skid, was faded and is now retired from the sport.
• Rafael dos Anjos, who is still an active fighter and had won three straight but was also at his best at lightweight and still pushed Covington to the point where some feel dos Anjos did enough to earn the win.

That dos Anjos fight was all the way back in June 2018, more than five years ago and wasn’t exactly a dominant performance. That isn’t a knock on Covington, who does have skills and top-shelf endurance and gave Kamaru Usman hell in their two fights. Still, it doesn’t give a lot of confidence in showing Covington’s ability to compete against the current crop of top welterweights.

Edwards has really come into his own and his striking game, especially if he can keep the fight in the clinch off of failed Covington takedowns, is very dangerous. I’m going to ride with the champion who has a far better recent resume, more activity and a lot of momentum coming into the fight.