UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington odds, Las Vegas prediction: MMA expert reveals surprising fight card picks

Colby Covington will get another chance to earn the UFC welterweight championship when he battles defending champion Leon Edwards at UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington on Saturday. The main UFC 296 fight card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will get underway at 10 p.m. ET. Covington had held the interim UFC welterweight crown in 2018, but has since lost the welterweight title bout twice to Kamaru Usman. Edwards, meanwhile, has held the title since defeating Usman in August 2022.

Edwards is a -165 favorite (risk $165 to win $100), while Covington comes back at +140 in the latest UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington odds. The co-main event features a flyweight title bout between Alexandre Pantoja (-195) and Brandon Royval (+165). Before finalizing any UFC 296 picks, make sure you check out the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Kyle Marley.

Marley won the first-ever “ToutMaster” UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and daily Fantasy shows. He watches every single fight for every professional MMA card and does extensive research before each event.

Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed Marley’s picks are up nearly $11,000. The accomplished MMA analyst has provided consistent winners for SportsLine members for the past four years. His accomplishments include hitting five consecutive main-event underdog winners in 2020 following the UFC’s brief pause in action because of the pandemic. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, with UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington in sight, Marley has studied the UFC card from top to bottom and revealed his top picks and best bets. You can only see Marley’s MMA picks at SportsLine.

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington preview 

Edwards, 32, has dominated since turning pro in 2011. He earned his first win with a knockout over Damian Zlotnicki at 2:15 of the first round at Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 4 on June 5, 2011. Since that time, he has gone 21-3-1, with seven wins by knockout, three by submission and 11 by decision. After competing in the British Association of Mixed Martial Arts, he joined UFC in 2014. Although he lost his first UFC bout, he has been beaten just one time since.

That loss was to Usman in December 2015, losing by unanimous decision. He then went on an eight-match win streak over the next four years before being sidelined for more than a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When he came back, he had a no-contest with Muhammad in March 2021. Three months later, he earned a unanimous decision win over Nate Diaz at UFC 263. He followed that up by beating Usman in August 2022 for the welterweight crown. He is now No. 4 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings.

Covington, 35, from Clovis, Calif., is nicknamed Chaos after all of the success he has achieved since turning pro in 2012. Covington won his first eight bouts at the welterweight division before losing to Warlley Alves by submission at UFC 194 in 1:26 of the first round. He rebounded with a submission win over Jonathan Meunier in June 2016, and went on to win four more matches, before earning the right to fight for the interim UFC welterweight crown.

He defeated Rafael dos Anjos by decision to win the title, but was later stripped of the crown due to injury. He got another shot at earning the welterweight championship in December 2019, but was knocked out at 4:10 of the fifth round by Usman. He fought Usman again at UFC 268 for the welterweight title in November 2021, but lost a unanimous decision. He is 17-3 in his career. See all of Marley’s UFC 296 picks here.

Top UFC 296 predictions

One of Marley’s top UFC 296 picks: He is backing Bryce Mitchell (-225) to defeat Josh Emmett (+185) in a battle of featherweights on the main card.

Mitchell, 29, who has compiled a 16-1 record, is looking to win his second bout in a row after losing by submission to Ilia Topuria at UFC 282. He did rebound with a three-round unanimous decision win over Dan Ige at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot on Sept. 23. Although he has not won by knockout, he has registered nine wins by submission and seven by decision. He is 10th in the UFC featherweight rankings.

Emmett, 38, has had a solid career since turning pro in 2011. In 22 matches, Emmett has compiled an 18-4 record, registering six wins by knockout and 10 by decision. He is out to snap a two-bout losing streak after falling to Topuria by unanimous decision at UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria in June. He is ranked sixth in the featherweight division.

“This should be a striker vs grappler matchup. If Emmett can’t stuff takedowns, then Mitchell is going to dominate him on the mat and possibly finish him. If Emmett can stop takedowns, then he probably knocks Mitchell out. I think we get a finish either way, but I’ll take Mitchell by sub,” Marley told SportsLine. See who else to pick here.

How to make UFC 296 picks

Marley has strong picks for Edwards vs. Covington and every other bout on the UFC 296 card. He’s also backing a fighter who “has an offensive and defensive wrestling edge” to emerge with a huge victory. See Marley’s picks at SportsLine. 

Who wins Edwards vs. Covington, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 296, all from the MMA expert who’s up nearly $12,000 on MMA in the past three-plus years, and find out.

UFC 296 fight card, odds

See full UFC 296 picks, predictions, best bets here.

Leon Edwards (-165) vs. Colby Covington (+140)
Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Brandon Royval (+155)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-650) vs. Stephen Thompson (+470)
Tony Ferguson (+240) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-300)
Vicente Luque (+275) vs. Ian Garry (-345)
Josh Emmett (+185) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-225)
Karol Rosa (+170) vs. Irene Aldana (-205)
Cody Garbrandt (-200) vs. Brian Kelleher (+165)
Casey O’Neill (-190) vs. Ariane Lipski (+160)
Alonzo Menifield (+220) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-270)
Andre Fili (-175) vs. Lucas Almeida (+145)
Martin Buday (-150) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+125)
Randy Brown (-270) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+220)