Thursday Night Football odds, line, spread: Saints vs. Rams picks, NFL predictions by expert on 45-31 run

The New Orleans Saints resume their pursuit of the NFC South title when they face the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Though the Saints (7-7) have the same record as the Buccaneers, Tampa Bay sits in first place in the NFC South by virtue of its head-to-head win over New Orleans in Week 4. The teams will meet again in Week 17. The Saints also lose the tiebreakers for the final two wild card spots in the NFC, currently held by the Vikings and Rams (both 7-7).

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a 4-point favorite in the latest Saints vs. Rams odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 46. Before you make any Rams vs. Saints picks or NFL bets, you need to see what SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving New Orleans.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Those selections form the basis of his weekly SportsLine NFL best bets, which are 65-41-2 since the start of last season, including a 10-2 record the last four weeks.

• Saints vs. Rams spread: Los Angeles -4
• Saints vs. Rams over/under: 46 points
• Saints vs. Rams money line: Los Angeles -206, New Orleans +171
• LAR: RB Kyren Williams ranks fourth in rushing yards (953)
• NO: Saints rank sixth in scoring defense (19.1 points per game)
• Saints vs. Rams picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Saints vs. Rams live stream: Watch on Amazon Prime

Why the Rams can cover

Los Angeles has been highly efficient in the red zone this season. The Rams have scored on 42 of 43 (97.7%) of their drives that have reached the red zone, the best percentage in the league. By contrast, the Saints have scored on just 80.0% of red zone drives this season, which is tied for 29th in the NFL.

In addition, Los Angeles faces a New Orleans offense that has struggled to run the ball. The Saints average just 3.7 yards per rush this season; just three teams average fewer. Last week, they ran for just 3.1 yards per carry against the Giants. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans has excelled at winning the turnover battle all season. The Saints have forced 22 turnovers, tied for ninth in the league. That takeaway prowess has helped New Orleans generate a turnover margin of +5, which is tied for eighth. By contrast, the Rams’ turnover margin is -2, which is 18th.

In addition, the Saints’ defense has played well all year. New Orleans allows just 19.1 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The team also has allowed fewer than 10 points in a game four times this season; only the Ravens’ defense has been better. See which team to pick here.

How to make Rams vs. Saints picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he’s leaning Over the point total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.

Who wins Rams vs. Saints on Thursday Night Football, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rams vs. Saints spread to back, all from the expert on a 45-31 roll on picks involving the Saints, and find out.