The conversation: Why Zion Williamson and the Pelicans are just getting started

If you’re looking for reasons to be excited about the New Orleans Pelicans, just revisit two games from last season: Their April 7 game against the Phoenix Suns and their play-in game nine days later against the Los Angeles Lakers. In the former, Zion Williamson played the best all-around game of his career. He blocked five shots (three of them in the fourth quarter) to go with his 29 points (12 of them in the fourth quarter), 10 rebounds and seven assists in 40 minutes. He made a couple of midrange jumpers. Williamson didn’t lead New Orleans in scoring — CJ McCollum had 31 and made seven 3s — but he was far and away the best player on the floor.

In the latter, Williamson was even better. McCollum couldn’t get anything going, and neither could the banged-up Brandon Ingram, so the Pelicans’ franchise player put the team on his back. He finished with 40 points on 17-for-27 shooting, but, unlike the game in Phoenix, he couldn’t lead them to victory. After appearing in 70 games and getting into the best shape of his career during the regular season, Williamson strained his hamstring with three minutes left against the Lakers. He was sidelined for New Orleans’ victory against the Sacramento Kings in the second play-in game, and for its four consecutive losses against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs.

Now Williamson is back, perhaps better than ever, and he has a new point guard: Dejounte Murray, acquired from the Atlanta Hawks in an offseason trade. Valanciunas is gone, which means Williamson might play a lot more “point center” in lineups without a traditional big man. The plan, for the Pelicans and their superstar, is to continue on the upward trajectory that they appeared to be on late last season. What exactly that will look like, though, is TBD — Ingram is on the final year of his contract and not expected to sign an extension, and the roster is short on both size and spot-up shooting. It’s not hard to be excited about this team, but it’s not hard to see the issues here, either.

The state of play

Last year: Trey Murphy III had knee surgery shortly before the season started and the Pelicans were 12-11 after a humiliating loss to the Lakers in Las Vegas in the In-Season Tournament. Despite a few late-season injuries, they finished 49-33 (No. 11 on offense, No. 6 on defense) with the league’s sixth-best point differential, thanks largely to Williamson being more available and more committed to being an all-around player than ever before. After the heartbreak against the Lakers, they beat the Kings without Williamson, setting the stage for… a forgettable first-round sweep at the hands of the Thunder.

The offseason: Murray cost the Pelicans two first-round picks, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., E.J. Liddell and a signed-and-traded Cody Zeller. After letting Valanciunas walk to the Washington Wizards, they signed Daniel Theis — likely their new starting center — for the minimum. They also extended Jose Alvarado on the cheap (two years, $9 million). Two rookie bigs (Yves Missi, drafted No. 21 this year, and Karlo Matkovic, drafted No. 52 in 2022) will have a chance to make the rotation, as will 31-year-old wing Javonte Green, who signed a one-year minimum deal. Naji Marshall signed with the Mavs, and Matt Ryan got cut in camp. Murphy remains eligible for a rookie-scale extension, and Ingram is technically still eligible for a veteran extension. 

Best case for 2024-25: Williamson leaps into the MVP conversation, Ingram drives a team-wide increase in 3-point frequency, Murray fixes the Pelicans’ crunch-time problem and they win 50-plus games for the first time since 2008; in the playoffs, they don’t just win their first series since 2018, they win another one, and their opponents are forced to respect Herb Jones’ 3-point shot.

Worst case 2024-25: Murray’s presence complicates the Pelicans’ rotation and shot distribution, and an increase in 3-point attempts doesn’t actually make the offense more efficient, as Murphy and McCollum are the only ones making 3s at a decent clip; even after a midseason trade that is meant to balance out the roster, they find themselves fighting to even qualify for the play-in again.

The conversation

Pelicans believer: April 16, 2024 simultaneously feels like a million years ago and just yesterday. I’ll never forget it. The whole basketball world watched Zion Williamson go on a rampage. It was a play-in game against the Lakers, and Zion almost singlehandedly made a double-digit deficit disappear in the fourth quarter. Anthony Davis picked him up on a switch, and Zion attacked the basket for a clutch bucket over one of the best defenders on the planet. This gave him 40 points, and, in a just world, he would have added to that total. Instead, he checked out of the game with a strained hamstring, effectively ending the Pelicans’ season. Great news, though: Zion’s ascension to face-of-the-league status was only put on hold for a bit. The best season of his career begins on Oct. 23 against the Chicago Bulls. If you’ve forgotten how unreal he was down the stretch last season, you’ll remember soon.

Pelicans skeptic: Hope you’re right. Year after year, though, I go into the season hoping that this will be the one in which everything clicks for Zion. How can you be so confident that it’s going to happen this time? It’s not like the Pelicans have put him in the perfect situation — they don’t have a proper starting center, they have too many one-way players and their big trade for Dejounte Murray felt like Step 1 of a plan that they never finished. Why does everybody seem resigned to Trey Murphy III coming off the bench again? Why is Brandon Ingram still on the team? Can’t they just surround Zion with spacers and stoppers?

Pelicans believer: Everything has already clicked with Zion, and all the noise about the center situation is tiresome. For years, I listened to people complain about Jonas Valanciunas and say that Zion needed to get more minutes at the 5 spot. Now that Valanciunas is gone, Zion needs to play more minutes at the 5 spot and the Pelicans have signed Daniel Theis (a better fit because he’ll stay out of Zion’s way), the big story is that they need a “proper” center? This doesn’t make any sense to me, and it’s a bit disrespectful to Yves Missi, whose upside is absolutely insane. As for your series of questions: The simple answer to all of them is that team-building is much more difficult than you’re making it seem. If the roster was just Zion, spacers and stoppers, you’d say Zion needs more “help.” Ingram is on the team because his value was artificially deflated by the mechanics of the new CBA and the fact that, the last time everybody saw him play, he was dealing with a knee injury. I’d rather wait for a good trade than make a bad one, and I don’t see anything wrong with bringing Murphy — who has not yet played his 200th NBA game — off the bench for now. It’s hardly damning to suggest that the roster is a work in progress in October. Please compare the roster that the Mavericks had during the 2024 Finals to the one they had this time last year. 

Pelicans skeptic: I’m not damning anybody! All I can evaluate, though, is what has actually happened. The Pelicans entered the 2024 offseason with a few obvious problems to solve, and David Griffin made it clear that they weren’t just going to run it back. The front office followed through with the Murray trade, but it felt like one of those moves that would make more sense after the next one. And then the next one never came! If there’s another trade tomorrow or in a few months, I might be a lot more bullish about the roster, but I’m pretty concerned about the current one. There’s a hidden cost, too, when a team starts a season with pieces that don’t fit: it damages its own players’ trade value.

Pelicans believer: What is with this narrative that the pieces don’t fit? I thought everybody loved smallball, and I thought it was a good thing to have a variety of playmakers. The way I see it, the Murray move fixes what was by far the Pelicans’ biggest problem (fourth-quarter execution) and accentuates their biggest strength (the second unit). If Murphy or even CJ McCollum winds up coming off the bench, it probably means you have an awesome bench. Also, I’m psyched to see these guys get more 3s up this year. The goal was 40 attempts per game last season, too, but this time they’re actually going to do it.

Pelicans skeptic: Uh, the most quoted player in that story is Matt Ryan, a shooter who has already been cut from the team. If he’s not going to be around, then please enlighten me on who exactly is going to drive this increase in 3-point attempts. Is Theis going to start jacking them up? Is Zion? I saw Jose Alvarado’s quote about Ingram taking more 3s, but I have to note that Ingram has gotten less and less comfortable as a spot-up guy throughout his tenure in New Orleans. I’ll believe that trend has reversed when I see it.

Pelicans believer: I mean, we’ve already seen Zion start to evolve. Remember the jump shots he made in that legendary game against Phoenix? I imagine he’ll mostly stick to midrange jumpers at first, but you shouldn’t be shocked if he does start taking — and making — open 3s. And Ingram gets it. He has already sacrificed touches on this team, and he has every incentive to increase his 3-point volume now. I expect he’ll get them up at least as often as he did in his first couple of seasons with the Pelicans, if not much more frequently than that.

Pelicans skeptic: I don’t want to dismiss the Pelicans’ stated goal completely, but I definitely don’t see Zion spotting up very often and wouldn’t bet on either Murray or Ingram making the kind of adjustment that McCollum did last season. McCollum’s drastically different shot selection was impressive precisely because veterans almost never do stuff like that. Another issue here: Jordan Hawkins can shoot, but, especially now that Murray is in front of him, I’m not convinced the 22-year-old will even be in the rotation. Hawkins has a long, long way to go on defense.

Pelicans believer: To me, the Murray trade made Hawkins a more viable rotation player — by virtue of being bigger than McCollum and Alvarado, Murray is a better fit next to Hawkins defensively. Regardless of our little disagreements about fit, though, we should be able to agree that the team will be better, right? Murray adds to the overall talent in the room. Murphy’s injury is far less serious than the one he had a year ago. Most importantly, Zion is going to be going full throttle from the very beginning. He said it himself: he’s “out for straight vengeance.”

Pelicans skeptic: We agree that the team could be better this season, not that it will. And I think you need to separate your excitement about Zion from your Pelicans predictions. Zion could have the best season in franchise history in terms of individual numbers, and they could still fail to qualify for the play-in. The West is no joke, man. Talent alone isn’t enough. They need to make at least one significant trade, and they need to do it before it’s too late.