Texans vs. Colts odds, line, spread: 2024 Week 18 NFL picks, predictions, best bets by model on 181-129 roll

A spot in the NFL playoffs will be on the line when the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans collide in a win-and-you’re-in Week 18 matchup on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Texans and Colts enter the game tied at 9-7 and would earn at least a wild card berth with a victory. If the Jaguars (also 9-7) lose to the Titans on Sunday, then the Houston vs. Indianapolis winner would also win the AFC South title and host a playoff game next week. The loser of Saturday’s game will be eliminated from playoff contention.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Houston is a 1-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Colts odds while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before you make any Colts vs. Texans picks or NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Texans vs. Colts and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model’s picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Colts vs. Texans:

• Texans vs. Colts spread: Houston -1
• Texans vs. Colts over/under: 47.5 points
• Texans vs. Colts money line: Houston -122, Indianapolis +102
• HOU: QB C.J. Stroud ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (274.6)
• IND: LB Zaire Franklin leads the league in tackles (170)
• Texans vs. Colts picks: See picks here
• Texans vs. Colts live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Texans can cover

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has had a sensational rookie season. The No. 2 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft ranks fourth in the league in passing yards per game (274.6). His 3,844 passing yards this season is the fifth most passing yards by a rookie quarterback in NFL history, behind Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston.

Stroud and the rest of the Houston offense faces an Indianapolis defense that has struggled keeping teams out of the end zone this season. The Colts give up 24.5 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league, ahead of just the Giants, Eagles, Panthers, Cardinals and Commanders. See which team to pick here.

Why the Colts can cover

Indianapolis has a pass rush to get pressure on Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Colts rank fifth in the league in sacks (49) this season. They are the only team in the NFL with four players with at least seven sacks: Samson Ebukam (9.5), Kwity Paye (8.5), Dayo Odeyingbo (eight) and DeForest Buckner (seven).

In addition, Indianapolis enters the game knowing it already has beaten Houston this season. In Week 2, the Colts ran for 126 yards on 23 carries (5.5 yards per rush) and sacked Stroud six times in a 31-20 victory in Houston. Indianapolis led 31-10 entering the fourth quarter. See which team to pick here.

How to make Texans vs. Colts picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, predicting 47 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations. You can see the model’s NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine. 

So who wins Colts vs. Texans on Saturday, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Colts spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model on a 181-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.