Team USA vs. Serbia best bets: Bogdan Bogdanovic will be x-factor in low-scoring 2024 Olympic opener

Team USA begins its Olympic journey on Sunday, and it won’t exactly get to ease into the tournament with a lightweight opponent. While softer group opponents Puerto Rico and South Sudan await, Team USA will kick things off against Serbia on Sunday in one of the most anticipated matchups of the tournament. Team USA blasted Serbia 105-79 in their exhibition matchup leading into the games, but this time, it counts, and Serbia won’t go nearly as quietly.

Serbia is among the most dangerous teams in the tournament field. With three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic at center, it has the best player in Paris (and probably the world). Serbia won silver in 2016 and beat Team USA at the 2019 FIBA World Cup. Last summer, Serbia took silver at the 2023 World Cup, and if any team at the Olympics is equipped to challenge Team USA, it is this one. Here are our best bets for Team USA vs. Serbia.

Team USA vs. Serbia

I’m expecting a far closer game between Team USA and Serbia than the one we got in Abu Dhabi. Bogdan Bogdanovic didn’t play in the exhibition, and his presence is enormously important given the ball pressure Team USA’s perimeter defenders can exert. The only other NBA guard on this roster is Vasilije Micic, so having Bogdanovic back would mean quite a bit. Team USA also had a far better shooting day from deep in that exhibition, making 16-of-36 3-point attempts compared to 10-of-34 for Team USA. Plus, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are dealing with an illness coming into this game, according to Steve Kerr. You really don’t want your centers ailing before you face Jokic. I’m picking a close game. The Pick: Serbia +12.5

I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games for Team USA in the Olympics for a variety of reasons. First, they are by far the most athletic team in the field, and the defensive advantage that gives them against teams without high-level guard play is enormous. Second, as talented as the rosters are, cohesion can still be an issue early on. The exhibition season showed just how out of sync this roster has been at times. Finally, there are nerves associated with an Olympic opener. The shots will obviously fall eventually, but a few slow minutes to start, as we saw when they faced Canada in an exhibition, can prove costly here. The Pick: Under 181.5

This is my favorite bet on the board for this game by far. Embiid and Davis are both at less than 100%. Davis, in particular, has struggled to defend Jokic in the past. Team USA is going to try to double-team Jokic at points trusting that it is so athletic that it can rotate behind him as needed. That is going to lead to plenty of Jokic assist opportunities, and this line is preposterously low at 4.5 assists. Jokic averaged 4.8 assists per game at the 2019 World Cup in just 22.6 minutes of play per game. If you want to make a bet on this game, this is the one I’d advise taking. The Pick: Jokic Over 4.5 assists

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