Shota Imanaga free agency: Suitors, skills, contract projection and more to know as deadline nears

So far as Major League Baseball’s offseason is concerned, certainties are in low supply. You seldom know when a trade is going to happen, or when a player is going to sign. That’s the winter’s biggest selling point: anything can occur at any moment. What else is there to do but turn on push notifications and enjoy the ride? There are some exceptions to the rule, however. Blessedly, given the recent slow pace of the sport’s business, this week contains one such instance. 

Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga’s 45-day posting window will close at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 11. That leaves him, oh, just over 72 hours to finalize an agreement with an MLB club. You might wonder, just where is he likely to go? And what happens if the deadline passes without him reaching an agreement?

Below, CBS Sports has addressed those matters and three other things to know about the final hours of Imanaga’s free agency.

1. Is he any good?

While Imanaga isn’t on the level of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he’s a highly accomplished pitcher who scouts project as a mid-rotation starter in MLB. We recently laid out his merits, noting that he made two All-Star Games in Japan and amassed a 2.96 ERA over the course of eight NPB seasons.

Here’s more about Imanaga’s pitch arsenal from our writeup:

Imanaga’s heater has nevertheless remained his primary offering because of the pitch’s innate “rising” action. He’ll be at home in that regard in MLB, with teams flocking in recent years to pitchers who can elevate their fastballs.

When Imanaga wants to change the pace, he usually turns to a low-80s slider that generated almost 40% whiffs last season. For context’s sake, that percentage would have ranked him in the top 10 among left-handed starters who threw at least 100 sliders during the 2023 campaign — and ahead of the likes of Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw, among other accomplished veterans.

It is possible that Imanaga will need to adjust his pitch mix upon arrival. Interested parties might even ask him to use his split-change more often. That offering resulted in a nearly 50% whiff rate during the 2023 season.

2. Which teams are in the running?

According to CBS Sports HQ’s MLB insider Jim Bowden, the group of finalists for Imanaga’s services include the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, and the San Francisco Giants. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, meanwhile, shared on Monday that a source told him that all signs are pointing to the Giants winning the bidding. 

3. What kind of contract will he land?

Part of MLB’s posting agreement with Nippon Professional Baseball stipulates that players have to be of a certain age and service time amount to avoid being classified as amateur free agents. The players who are classified as amateurs are then subjected to MLB’s wage-suppressing rules for international free agents — the same that prevented Shohei Ohtani from getting his fair market value when he first came over (and may similarly limit Roki Sasaki).

Imanaga has the years, both of life and of service time, to avoid that classification. As such, he’s going to get paid well. Earlier this winter, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Imanaga is expected to receive a nine-figure deal. 

4. Will there be a posting fee?

Yup. Every player signed through the posting system requires their new MLB team to pay their old foreign league team a fee based on the player’s contract. Here is how the fee is calculated, broken down by total contract value:

• Contract worth less than $25 million: 20% of contract value
• Contract worth $25 million to $50 million: $5 million plus 17.5% of amount over $25 million
• Contract worth more than $50 million: $9.275 million plus 15% of amount over $50 million

We’ve already seen two other international free agents receive nine-figure contracts this winter. The Los Angeles Dodgers shelled out more than $50 million in a posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes after signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, paid the Kiwoom Heroes more than $18 million after inking Jung Hoo Lee. 

It’s to be determined how much the Yokohama Bay Stars will receive in exchange for posting Imanaga, though we do believe it’s fair to think that number will be closer to Lee’s $18 million mark than Yamamoto’s $50 million.

5. What happens if he doesn’t sign?

In the unlikely event that Imanaga does not sign before the deadline, he would remain with the Bay Stars for another season. After the 2024 campaign, he could try once more to transfer from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB. Again, there’s no reason to think this is going to happen, but just in case you were curious about what would happen as a hypothetical.