Ravens vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, line, spread: 2024 AFC Championship Game picks from expert on 48-19 roll

Lamar Jackson hopes his time is now, but he’ll have to get past the defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday when the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC Championship Game. The Ravens quarterback won the 2019 MVP and is the favorite to win it this season, but has yet to taste the ultimate success in the NFL Playoffs. On the other side is Patrick Mahomes, a two-time league and Super Bowl MVP who has made the AFC Championship Game in six straight seasons. The top-seeded Ravens (14-4) beat the Texans, 34-10, in last week’s Divisional Round, while the No 3-seeded Chiefs (13-6) beat Buffalo, 27-24.

Sunday’s kickoff at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The latest Ravens vs. Chiefs odds list Baltimore as a 3.5-point favorite, according to the SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5. Before you make any Chiefs vs. Ravens picks, you need to see what proven SportsLine NFL expert Mike Tierney has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving the Ravens.

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He had a typically strong NFL season in 2022, going 68-54-6 on his picks and returning $815 to $100 players. In addition, he is an amazing 48-19-2 on his last 69 NFL picks in games involving the Ravens, returning a whopping $2,702. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Tierney has broken down Chiefs vs. Ravens and just revealed his picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Ravens vs. Chiefs:

• Ravens vs. Chiefs spread: Baltimore -3.5
• Ravens vs. Chiefs over/under: 44.5 points
• Ravens vs. Chiefs money line: Baltimore -199, Kansas City +165
• KC: Chiefs are 20-10-1 as road underdogs under Andy Reid (since 2013)
• BAL: Ravens are 14-7 ATS in the playoffs under John Harbaugh (since 2008)
• Ravens vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine 
• Ravens vs. Chiefs live stream: Paramount+ (try for free)

Why Ravens can cover

The combination of the NFL’s most opportunistic defense and an offense led by dual threat Lamar Jackson has made the Ravens a tough team to beat. The defense led the NFL in takeaways (31) and sacks (60) during the regular season, so Patrick Mahomes will have his work cut out for him Sunday. The Ravens allow 16.5 points per game, fewest in the NFL, and score 28.7, which ranks fourth. Three players have at least nine sacks, led by Justin Madubuike with 13.

The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing, averaging 160.6 yards per game behind Jackson, who ran for 821 yards in the regular season and had 100 last week. The quarterback also threw for 3,678 yards, and rookie receiver Zay Flowers (858 yards) is a big-play threat. Tight end Mark Andrews (ankle), who had 544 yards and scored six touchdowns in 10 games, could return Sunday. Baltimore is 10-3 ATS in its past 13 playoff games and is 19-10 ATS all-time in the postseason. See which team to pick here.

Why Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 11-7-1 ATS this season and is 9-4 ATS in its past 13 playoff games. The Chiefs are well-versed in playing at this stage, while the Ravens are making their first conference title game appearance since 2012. Jackson’s four TDs last week matched his total in his previous four playoff games, and he had seven turnovers in those games. K.C.’s Patrick Mahomes has won 13 playoff games and has topped 340 passing yards in all four showdowns with Jackson.  

Mahomes is 3-1 in those meetings and has won five straight playoff games, with 10 TD passes and no interceptions. The two-time league and Super Bowl MVP threw two TD passes to Travis Kelce last week, and the tight end has 146 yards in the two games. Rookie receiver Rashee Rice has 177, and Isaiah Pacheco rushed for 97 last week as K.C. averaged 6.1 yards per carry. The Chiefs allowed 17.3 points per game in the regular season, second-fewest in the league. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Ravens picks

Tierney has analyzed Ravens vs. Chiefs from every angle and is leaning Under the point total, but he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.

Who wins Chiefs vs. Ravens in Sunday’s 2024 AFC Championship Game, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ravens vs. Chiefs spread hits hard, all from the expert who is 48-19 on picks involving Baltimore, and find out.