Prisco’s Week 7 NFL picks: Ravens snap Lions’ hot streak, Eagles outduel Dolphins, Commanders rout Giants

We always have this debate in our green room on NFL Sundays: What do people care about when it comes to picks — straight-up record or picks against the spread?

I say it’s picks against the spread.

This week, I will gladly say that. That’s because I was better against the spread in Week 6 than I was straight up. Go figure.

It was 9-6 ATS and 8-7 straight up for me last week. That brings my season record straight up to 56-37 and my ATS record to 45-45-3. Yes, I finally climbed back to .500.

Now it’s time to get over the top with a stellar Week 7. Here goes.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at New Orleans Saints

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)

This is a tough game on a short week on the road for the Jaguars. It’s even tougher when Trevor Lawrence is banged up. He is expected to play, but how limited will he be? He’s not the only Jaguars player hurting. The Saints have some injury issues as well. The Jaguars have been playing the better football of the two and that carries over. 

Pick: Jaguars 23, Saints 20

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This is one of the better games of the week. The Lions are playing back-to-back road games, but the Ravens are coming off a London trip. The Ravens haven’t clicked yet on offense, but it’s coming. The problem is the Detroit defense is really good. Even so, look for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson to find a way to win this one as the offense actually shows better. 

Pick: Ravens 23, Lions 17

Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This could be a game between backup quarterbacks. It will be rookie Tyson Bagent for the Bears and probably Brian Hoyer for the Raiders, although Jimmy Garoppolo still could go. Even so, it’s a big edge for the Raiders. They have been playing better and their defense is better. Raiders keep winning. 

Pick: Raiders 27, Bears 14

Cleveland Browns (-2) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Browns are coming off an impressive home victory over the 49ers with P.J. Walker playing quarterback. They might have Deshaun Watson back, which will boost the offense. The defense has been special. Gardner Minshew was awful last week against the Jaguars, and this is a much better defense. The Browns win again, even if Watson doesn’t play. 

Pick: Browns 23, Colts 10

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Patriots are a mess right now, but the Bills didn’t look great in beating the Giants on Sunday night. That won’t matter here. The Bills have owned the Patriots in recent years and this version of Bill Belichick’s team is awful. Look for Josh Allen and the offense to get back on track here. Blowout. 

Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 14

Washington Commanders (-2) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Giants are coming off a tough road loss at Buffalo, while the Commanders played well in winning on the road against the Falcons. They are playing back-to-back road games, but they are the better team. I wonder if the Giants line can hold up against that defensive front. It won’t, even with Tyrod Taylor’s ability to move. Washington wins it. 

Pick: Commanders 27, Giants 13

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses, but this is a big division game since the division is still wide open. The Bucs didn’t do much on offense last week, but that will change here. Look for Baker Mayfield to get back on track and outplay Desmond Ridder. Bucs take it. 

Pick: Bucs 24, Falcons 19

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Steelers are coming off a bye, while the Rams are coming off a home victory over Arizona. The Rams defense played well in that game, which isn’t a good thing for a Steelers offense that has had issues all season long. The Rams can attack the Steelers through the air with Matt Stafford and his receivers, which is why they will win this game. 

Pick: Rams 24, Steelers 20

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Seahawks are coming off a tough road loss to the Bengals, while the Cardinals are playing consecutive road games after losing to the Rams last week. The Cardinals offense struggled in that game, which is a concern. The Seattle offense blew a bunch of scoring chances. They won’t here. Seahawks take it. 

Pick: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 17

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Packers are coming off a bye, but they didn’t look good the last time out in losing to the Raiders. They are healthier now, which matters. Getting Aaron Jones back will be big. The Broncos are a mess. The defense is bad and the offense has issues. The Packers will move the football here as Jordan Love plays well and Green Bay wins it.

Pick: Packers 30, Broncos 21

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Cowboys where Justin Herbert didn’t play that well. Now he faces a good Chiefs defense. Kansas City is coming off a Thursday night game, so they are rested. The Chargers pass defense has issues, so look for Patrick Mahomes to finally have his big day this season. Chiefs take it. 

Pick: Chiefs 34, Chargers 27

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

This is the game of the week, featuring two 5-1 teams. The Eagles are coming off a bad loss to the Jets on the road, while the Dolphins have won the last two over bad teams. The Eagles will regroup here, but I think both teams will score a lot. This will be a fun shootout. But the Eagles take it. 

Pick: Eagles 35, Dolphins 29

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Minnesota Vikings

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)

The 49ers, who lost to the Browns Sunday, are back on the road against the Vikings, who beat the Bears last week. The 49ers are banged up on offense and might be without Christian McCaffrey and some other key players. This game will be about the San Francisco defense. The front will force Kirk Cousins into some key mistakes that lead to points. 

Pick: 49ers 29, Vikings 20