NFL Week 7 early odds: 49ers slim favorites over Chiefs in Super Bowl rematch, Buccaneers home underdogs

With six weeks of NFL action in the books, we can start hardening our opinions about who teams are in 2024. It feels like four of the best teams in the NFC all reside in the NFC North, as the Vikings, Lions, Packers, and Bears all have at least four wins on the season. Meanwhile, we can largely write off other clubs like the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars after dropping to 1-5 on the season. 

That’s what Week 6 told us. But what about Week 7? Below, we will take our first look at the upcoming week of the regular season and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.

Note: Chicago and Dallas are on the bye in Week 8.

Week 7 early odds

(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)

Notable movement, trends

Broncos at Saints (Thursday)

The Saints are now just a 1-point favorite at home as they take on Sean Payton and the Broncos on Thursday. This is a drop from the opening line of Saints -4, but likely due to the injury of Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler, now under center for New Orleans. The total also dropped to 37 after opening at 41.5. Denver has been a solid team to back this season, as they are 4-2 ATS, while the Saints are 3-3 ATS. However, New Orleans is just 1-2 ATS at the Superdome this season.  

Patriots at Jaguars (in London)

There were no real changes in the line for this international game between the Patriots and Jaguars, which is a little odd considering New England changed quarterback from Jacoby Brissett to Drake Maye. In any event, Jacksonville is still a 5.5-point favorite. They’ll have the advantage of already being in London after playing there in Week 6, while the Patriots will be flying across the pond this week. Neither of these teams has been favorable to bettors as the Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS, while Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS. 

Bengals at Browns 

This line has jumped over several key numbers after opening at Bengals -1. Now, it has leaped over the field goal threshold and stands at Bengals -4.5 as road favorites heading to Cleveland. Cincy has shown glimpses of its ceiling this season and has moved to 3-3 ATS on the season, which includes a 3-0 ATS mark on the road. As for the Browns, they continue to lack an identity and have struggled at home, failing to cover in either of their two matchups.  

Lions at Vikings 

We have ourselves a flip in the odds for this key NFC North matchup. Initially, the Lions opened as a 3.5-point favorite on the road, but that has since swung toward the Vikings. Now, they are a 1.5-point favorite at home as they are coming off of the Week 6 bye. This season, Minnesota is 5-0 ATS, while the Lions are 4-1 ATS. Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are 1-0-1 ATS coming off a bye week and 4-3 ATS when they have the rest advantage over their opponent. As for Detroit, they are 3-2 ATS under Dan Campbell when dealing with a rest disadvantage. 

Texans at Packers 

This line still sits under the field goal threshold, but it’s knocking on the door. The Packers opened as a 1.5-point favorite over the Texans, but that has since moved to Packers -2.5. Both of these clubs are coming off wins in Week 6 and put up monster numbers offensively in the process. While the Texans may be coming into this head-to-head with a better record on the season, they haven’t been as kind to bettors. Entering Week 7, Houston is 2-3-1 ATS on the season, which includes a 1-2 ATS mark on the road. On the other hand, the Packers are 4-2 ATS this season.  

Eagles at Giants 

This line is moving somewhat toward the Giants. Philadelphia opened as a 4-point favorite in this NFC East matchup but has since ticked down a half-point to Eagles -3.5. As the week progresses, it’ll be interesting to see if that continues to pull in New York’s direction, particularly if they get some injured players back into the fold. Philly is 2-3 ATS this season and 1-1 ATS on the road, while the Giants are 3-3 ATS but 1-2 ATS at MetLife Stadium.  

Dolphins at Colts 

This matchup has seen a sizable swing in the odds. Not only is there a new favorite, but they have also crossed key numbers in the process. Miami opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and the Colts are now laying 3.5 points in this Week 7 matchup. This is likely due to Miami’s lackluster quarterback depth with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Meanwhile, the Colts have played well with Joe Flacco under center as Anthony Richardson recovers from his injury. Indy is 3-0 ATS at home this season, while Miami is 1-1 ATS. The Dolphins were on the bye in Week 6 and, under Mike McDaniel, the team is 3-5 ATS with a rest advantage. 

Seahawks at Falcons 

Seattle is looking to snap a three-game losing skid as it heads to Atlanta to face the Falcons. This game opened at Falcons -3.5 but has since shifted to Falcons -2.5. The Seahawks are coming off a mini-bye after playing on Thursday, so they’ll have some added rest before flying across the country. The Seahawks have yet to cover a game on the road this season, owning a 0-1-1 ATS record. However, the Falcons haven’t fared particularly well at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, as they are 1-3 ATS at home. 

Titans at Bills 

The Bills have ballooned to an 8.5-point favorite over the Titans after initially opening as a 6.5-point favorite. Of course, this line could continue to move with Buffalo still having its Week 6 game on Monday night on the horizon. Tennessee is 1-1 ATS on the road this season but 1-4 ATS overall (second-worst in the NFL).  

Panthers at Commanders 

Washington’s ascent under rookie sensation Jayden Daniels can be felt with the movement of these lines. The Commanders opened as a 3-point favorite, but that has since jumped to -7.5. Not only that, but the total in this game has risen over 10 points to 51.5 after opening at 41. Washington is 4-1-1 ATS on the season and a perfect 2-0 ATS at home. Meanwhile, Carolina is 1-2 ATS on the road entering Week 7. 

Raiders at Rams 

The Rams are coming off a bye week in Week 6 and have seen their odds increase for this matchup. They opened as a 4.5-point favorite and are now laying 5.5 points. Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 4-4 ATS coming off of the bye and 10-10-1 ATS when given the rest advantage. This season, L.A. has been a tough bet as they are 1-4 ATS but 1-1 ATS at SoFi Stadium. The Raiders are 1-2 ATS on the road.  

Chiefs at 49ers 

We have ourselves a Super Bowl rematch in the late window of Week 7 as the Chiefs roll into Santa Clara to take on the Niners. San Francisco opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and that has ticked down slightly to 49ers -1. Kyle Shanahan’s team is coming off a mini-bye after playing on Thursday, while the Chiefs were on the bye in Week 6, so each club should be fully rested for this matchup. In the Patrick Mahomes era (since 2018), the Chiefs are 4-6 ATS coming off of the bye. This season, however, they are 4-1 ATS and 2-0 ATS on the road. San Fran is 2-1 ATS at Levi’s Stadium. 

Jets at Steelers 

The New York Jets opened as a slim 1-point favorite, but the odds in this matchup have since flipped in favor of the Steelers, who are laying 1.5 points currently. Of course, this could continue to move with New York still to play its Week 6 matchup on Monday. How they respond in the aftermath of Robert Saleh’s firing could see a shift in these odds once again. Pittsburgh is 1-1 ATS at home this season, while the Jets are 1-1 ATS on the road. 

Ravens at Buccaneers (Monday)

The Buccaneers find themselves as a home underdog, getting 3.5 points against the Ravens on Sunday. This season, Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS at home and 1-0 ATS as a home dog. As for Baltimore, they are 2-1 ATS on the road, and both of those ATS wins have come as road favorites.

Chargers at Cardinals (Monday)

The Cardinals opened this head-to-head as a 1-point favorite, but the Chargers have since flipped the odds and are laying 2.5-points on the road. Los Angeles has covered both games this season where they’ve been road favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 1-2 ATS at home this season, and one of those ATS losses has come as a home dog.