NFL playoff narratives for all 14 postseason teams: Sam Darnold not playoff tested? Lions too banged up?

The NFL playoffs are set, as the bracket is finally complete for the league’s annual postseason tournament. The league had two teams enter the postseason on the final day (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos) while the seeding for each team was finally set in stone. At the end of the day, at least four teams have qualified for the playoffs after failing to make the postseason the year before for the 35th consecutive season — showcasing how much parity the NFL has year in and year out. 

The Washington Commanders went from last place to the playoffs, while the Minnesota Vikings doubled their amount of victories from the season prior. The Broncos snapped a nine-year playoff drought while the Chargers entered the playoffs in Year 1 of the Jim Harbaugh era. In 26 of the past 29 seasons, at least one team has made the playoffs the season after finishing in last or tied for last place.

As the playoffs are set to unfold, here are some narratives for each of the teams playing for a Super Bowl. 

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson will come up short of the Super Bowl again: This is a narrative that will last until Jackson does win a championship. Jackson finally exercised his demons last postseason and got to the conference championship game, but the Ravens were the No. 1 seed and lost at home to the Chiefs. 

Jackson is just 2-4 in the playoffs, completing 57.4% of his passes with six touchdowns and six interceptions for a 75.7 rating. This is with averaging 86.8 rush yards per game compared to 59.9 in the regular season. Of the players with multiple MVP awards, Jackson is the only one who has never been to a Super Bowl. 

Until Jackson gets to a Super Bowl, the pressure will be on him to get there. He’s under the most pressure of any quarterback in football. 

Buffalo Bills

They can’t beat the Chiefs when it matters: Buffalo was the only team to beat Kansas City in a game that had any meaning for the Chiefs in the regular season, yet the Bills typically beat the Chiefs in the regular season. In each of the last four regular seasons, the Bills have beaten the Chiefs. 

What about the postseason? The Bills are 0-3 against the Chiefs, losing twice in Kansas City and once in Buffalo. The Bills have not been to a Super Bowl under Sean McDermott and Josh Allen, losing in the divisional round at home during the last two postseasons despite having a winning record in the playoffs this decade.

The Chiefs have ended their season in three of the past four postseasons. Will it be this year as well? 

Denver Broncos

Bengals would have been a better playoff opponent than the Broncos: The Bills play the No. 7 seed in the wild-card round, which ended up being the Broncos as they only needed to win on Sunday to clinch a playoff spot. Denver finished 10-7, one game ahead of Cincinnati for the final playoff spot. 

The Bengals were the hotter team at the end of the season (they won five straight), but the Broncos have been in the playoff race since October. Cincinnati took too long to play like an AFC contender and Denver had too big a lead for the Bengals to catch them. 

So the Bills will play the Broncos. The Bengals may have been a tougher opponent, but the Broncos did finish with the No. 3 scoring defense (18.3 points per game) and No. 2 defense in yards per play (4.9). They may be a tougher opponent than many think. 

Detroit Lions

Their defense is too banged up to win the Super Bowl: Didn’t appear that was the case for the Lions in Sunday’s win over the Vikings, but the injuries in December were enough to bring up the red flags. 

The Lions allowed 32.4 points per game in December. No team has ever won a Super Bowl allowing 30+ points per game in December. Detroit allowed 7.4 yards per play in December, the most by any team in December in the Super Bowl era. They have started 30 different defensive players this season and have six Week 1 defensive starters on injured reserve (the most to miss the first playoff game by any team is five). 

Perhaps the Lions defense will be all right after neutralizing the Vikings, but the playoffs will tell the story. Detroit will have the extra week to get healed up too, which is massive for the Lions. 

Green Bay Packers 

They can’t beat any of the good teams: The Packers are a good football team and a dangerous No. 7 seed — just like they were last season. There is something different regarding this Packers team compared to last season — Green Bay struggles to beat the elite teams in the NFC. 

The Packers are 0-5 against the Vikings, Lions and Eagles this season — the three teams in the conference with 14+ wins and three of the four teams with a better record than them in the conference. Those five losses are by a combined 22 points, so the Packers aren’t getting blown out. 

There is no victory on the Packers’ schedule that convinces anyone they can make a playoff run in the NFC, nor beat any of the elite teams in the conference. Green Bay will get a chance to squash that narrative next week in Philadelphia. 

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud has regressed in his sophomore season: Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history last year, setting the standard for rookie quarterbacks. He finished with 23 touchdowns to five interceptions last season and was third in explosive passer rate. Stroud has eight touchdowns to three interceptions inside the numbers last season while being sacked only 38 times. 

This season, Stroud has 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and is 20th in explosive pass rate. He has eight touchdowns to nine interceptions inside the numbers and has been sacked 52 times. The Texans are still the No. 4 seed in the playoffs and won the AFC South, just like last season. 

Stroud is a worse quarterback than in his rookie year, but can get to the same round of the playoffs as last season with a win. 

Kansas City Chiefs

The insane win streak in one-score games has to end at some point: When the Chiefs play a game that’s decided by one score (eight points or less), they win. The Chiefs have won an impressive 16 consecutive one-score games, the longest streak in NFL history (streak dating to last year). Kansas City has a 42-21 record in one-score games from 2018 to 2023 (.667 win percentage), so this is certainly a statistical outlier. 

Can the Chiefs keep winning these one-score games in the playoffs, against the best teams in the AFC? Keep in mind the Chiefs point differential is +59, the lowest for any 15+ win team in NFL history. The low margin of victory could also hurt the Chiefs.

Still hard to go against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, no matter the circumstance. 

Los Angeles Chargers

They can’t beat any teams over .500: The Chargers deserve a ton of credit for making the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season. Los Angeles more than doubled the amount of wins from last season from five to 11, and are the top wild-card team in the AFC playoffs. 

The Chargers also beat the teams they were supposed to beat, finishing 8-1 vs. teams that were .500 or worse this season. They were 3-5 against teams that were over. 500. 

Los Angeles will face Houston in the first round of the playoffs, an over. 500 team. The Chargers were 2-5 against teams with 10+ wins this season, both against the Broncos. The Houston Texans were 10-7, an opportunity to change the narrative. 

Los Angeles Rams

They’re a tough out when the “big four” play: The “big four” on the Rams are the offensive quartet of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua — the lifeblood of the Rams offense. The Rams are 14-5 when all four of these players play on offense as Stafford has 37 touchdowns to eight in interceptions in those 19 games.

Stafford is 6-1 in his last seven starts with 11 touchdowns to one interception and a 104.6 passer rating, all when the “big four” play. The Rams ended the season 9-3 after a 1-4 start, winning five straight before resting their starters in Week 18. 

If the Rams’ “big four” are healthy, they are a very dangerous team in the playoffs. 

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold hasn’t been playoff tested yet: Darnold had a huge seaosn for the 14-win Vikings, finishing in the top five in the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards. The Pro Bowl selection for Darnold was justified, but concerns were raised during Sunday’s loss to the Lions. 

Darnold was 18 of 41 for 166 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in the blowout loss to the Lions. Not a good time to have one of the worst games of the season. 

How good will Darnold be in the playoffs, on the road no less? Will Darnold’s Cinderella story be turned into a pumpkin, or can he keep up the play he’s shown over the majority of the season. 

Never starting a playoff game, Darnold is the biggest wild card this postseason. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The collapse at the end of the season will continue: Pittsburgh is the team that’s limping into the playoffs, starting 10-3 before losing four straight to close out the season. The Steelers once were in command of the AFC North before ending up with the same record as the Broncos. This is the longest losing streak to end the season for the Steelers since 1998. 

Pittsburgh averaged just 14.3 points per game over the final four weeks of the season after averaging 24.8 the first 13 games. The turnover differential was -1 during the four-game losing streak after being +17 in the first 13 games. 

The Steelers’ playoff woes recently are also well known. They have lost three straight road playoff games and five straight playoff games overall. They are set to play a Ravens team that is averaging 33.8 points per game over their last four games and has 11 games scoring 30+ points this season. 

Starting the playoffs won’t flip a switch. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Offense will be rusty after Jalen Hurts missed end of season: Hurts has missed the last two games due to being in the league’s concussion protocol, having not played since the first quarter of Week 16 against the Commanders. The Eagles quarterback is expected back for the wild-card playoff opener against the Packers, but how will Hurts respond? 

How will the Eagles offense respond? Will Hurts start out slow in his first action back? Will the offense get off to a slow start? 

The Eagles were 25th in the NFL in offensive points per game in the first quarter (3.2) and 21st in offensive yards per game (70.8). Since Week 14, they were first in offensive points per game (7.6). The slow starts appear to be a narrative of the past. 

With Hurts expected to return, the Eagles will be monitored in how they start. Could be the difference between a first-round upset or not. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield can lead them on a playoff run: The Buccaneers were champions of the NFC South with 10 wins, but are one of the more dangerous teams in the postseaosn. Give Mayfield credit for that, as he is the fourth player in NFL history with 40 passing touchdowns and a 70% completion rate in a season. 

Mayfield finished with a 71.4% completion rate and 41 touchdowns this season, finishing with 4,500 yards passing. The Buccaneers have the third-best offense since Week 14 (32.0 offensive points per game) because of Mayfield, while also leading the league in yards per game (456.4). 

The way Mayfield is playing, the Buccaneers can go on a playoff run against the NFC East opponents they would face in the wild card and divisional round. 

Washington Commanders

They can never be counted out: Washington has trailed by 10+ points in two of the last three games and trailed in the fourth quarter of the last three games. They won them all, one with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.

A franchise that once lost 30 straight games down 10+ points in the second half, the Commanders became the second team in NFL history to win consecutive games down 10+ pts in the second half with a rookie starting quarterback (2012 Colts with Andrew Luck was the other).

The Commanders won on a game-winning touchdown pass with six seconds left, a game-winning touchdown pass in overtime, and a game-winning touchdown pass with two seconds left over the past three weeks. No matter the deficit, Washington can never be counted out of a game — especially with Daniels.