NFL odds, Week 10 lines, ATS predictions, game picks, tips, times: Model simulates every game 10,000 times

Home teams have won 53.6% of games this season entering the Week 10 NFL schedule. However, road teams have had more against-the-spread (ATS) success, covering at a 55.2% clip. That makes the half-dozen road NFL favorites on Sunday stick out when forming an NFL betting strategy, especially considering road favorites have a resounding 64.6% cover rate. Games with NFL road favorites in the Week 10 NFL spreads include Bills vs. Colts (+3.5, 46.5), 49ers vs. Buccaneers (+6.5, 50.5) and Eagles vs. Cowboys (+7.5, 43.5).

The Lions’ 7-1 ATS record is the best in the league. Observing NFL betting trends can give you a leg up when it comes to making football picks, but there are numerous factors to consider before making any Week 10 NFL picks against the spread or straight-up. All of the Week 10 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 10 NFL picks now. Plus, get the model’s full Week 10 NFL score predictions here.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 14-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 195-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 49-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 10 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. You can find them all here.

Sunday, Nov. 10

NFL Germany Game: New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 40.5)

Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
Channel: NFL Network

In the three previous regular-season NFL games in Germany, the favorite has won and covered. Also, the Under is 3-0 in NFL Germany games, with the average total across them being just 29.3 points. The Under is 6-3 for the Giants this season, while the Over is 7-2 for the Panthers.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 14-7 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks, projects one defense to rack up four sacks and force two turnovers, which could come in handy for NFL props or Week 10 Fantasy football picks. See which team to pick now.

New England Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6, 38.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

The Bears have won eight straight games in Chicago and have gone 7-1 against the spread over that stretch. The Patriots have covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season and will try to cover in three straight for the first time since the 2022 season.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. See which side of the spread is a must-back here.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5, 46.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

No team has more against the spread victories than Indianapolis this season (nine). The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home, while the Bills have covered in their last two road games. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown an interception in his last two games after having a nine-game streak, including the postseason, without a pick.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 195-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 49-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one side of the total easily hits well over 50% of the time, with five points to spare. See which side it is right here.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5, 43.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

The Vikings have won five straight meetings with the Jaguars and are 6-1 all-time against Jacksonville. After starting the year 2-4 against the spread, the Jaguars have covered in their last three games. Minnesota leads the NFL in takeaways (17), while the Jaguars have forced the fewest turnovers (five) in 2024. Jacksonville may be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence (shoulder).

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time in an A-rated pick. See which side is a must-back here.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 41.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

Denver won when these teams last met in Week 8 of the 2023 season, which ended a 16-game win streak in the head-to-head series for Kansas City. The Chiefs are 11-6 ATS over this 17-game stretch, but the Broncos have covered in four of the last five meetings.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 14-7 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, projects one team to average under 4.0 yards per carry, and projects one team to have no one reach 65 scrimmage yards. See its latest NFL projections here.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3.5, 46.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

The Saints are the first team in NFL history to win its first two games by 20-plus points and then lose seven straight games, the franchise’s longest losing streak since 1999. New Orleans has also lost five straight versus the spread, while Atlanta has covered in four of its last five games, winning outright in five of its last six.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 195-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 49-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one side of total hits in well over 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, 50.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has six total touchdowns versus zero turnovers in two career starts versus Tampa, both victories. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has started against San Francisco with three different teams, including the Bucs. He is 0-3 in those contests with one total touchdown and six turnovers.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side covers in well over 50% of simulations. See the team to back right here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5, 45)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

The Commanders won when these teams last met in 2020, which ended a six-game win streak by Pittsburgh in the all-time series. Washington is undefeated against the spread over the last eight games (7-0-1). The Steelers have covered three straight and all three games went over.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 14-7 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one team wins on the money line in 60% of simulations. Get the model’s highly confident pick here.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 39)

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

The last time the Titans franchise defeated the Chargers on the road, it was a Houston Oilers victory over the San Diego Chargers in 1990. Since then, the Chargers have won nine straight home matchups. In 2024, the Under is 7-1 for Los Angeles.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 195-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 49-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick. See which it is right here.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5, 46.5)

Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

The Jets are coming off a Thursday victory, but have covered in just one of six games when having a rest advantage since the 2023 season. Aaron Rodgers has lost three of his last four games at Arizona, all coming when he was with the Packers. As for the Cardinals, they have won three straight outright, marking their longest win streak since starting 7-0 in 2021.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects the teams to combine for nearly 10 sacks plus turnovers, which could be beneficial for NFL prop bets. See more NFL projections here.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 43.5)

Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

Dak Prescott (hamstring) has been ruled out, with Cooper Rush expected to start for Dallas. Rush is 5-1 as an NFL starter, with seven passing touchdowns and four interceptions over those starts. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. 

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 14-7 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one side of the total hits well over 60% of the time. See whether you can still trust Dallas without Prescott here.

Sunday Night Football: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (+3.5, 49)

Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC

Texans receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) is eligible to return from injured reserve, and C.J. Stroud is a different quarterback with Collins on the field. Stroud had a 68.9 completion percentage and 98.2 passer rating in the five games with Collins this season, compared to 55.5% and 82.4 in the four games without him. Detroit has kept opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest passer rating (76.2) but has also given up the fourth-most passing yards per game (250.8).

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects two players to combine for 200 scrimmage yards, while another three top 70 yards on the day. See the NFL projections here.

Monday, Nov. 4

Monday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 50.5)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN

Miami is 12-2 all-time versus the Rams, including five straight victories. However, the Rams have won their last three games of this season, while the Dolphins enter MNF after dropping three straight. Miami is averaging 21 points per game in the four contests Tua Tagovailoa has started this season, compared to just 10 in the four he did not start.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 195-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 49-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says seven players will go over 50 scrimmage yards, including two reaching 90. See who they are right here.