Monday Night Football odds, line, spread: Broncos vs. Bills prediction, NFL picks from expert on 16-5 roll

The Denver Broncos will ride momentum into Highmark Stadium in NFL Week 10 for a Monday Night Football matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos (3-5) won consecutive games before their bye week, so they’re rested for the primetime MNF matchup. The Bills (5-4) have lost three of their past five games, dropping a 24-18 decision to the Bengals last Sunday, but they are a tough team to beat at home. The most recent meeting between the teams came in 2020, a 48-19 Buffalo road victory that was its third straight against Denver.  

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The SportsLine consensus lists Buffalo as a seven-point favorite, while the over/under is 47.5 in the latest Broncos vs. Bills odds. Before making any Bills vs. Broncos picks, you need to see what SportsLine NFL expert Matt Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Severance quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. In fact, he is 16-5 on his last 21 NFL picks involving the Broncos. Anybody following him is way up.

Now, Severance has locked in on Broncos vs. Bills from every angle and locked in his picks and NFL predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and trends for Bills vs. Broncos: 

• Broncos vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -7
• Broncos vs. Bills Over/Under: 47.5 points
• Broncos vs. Bills money line: Denver +268, Buffalo -348
• DEN: Broncos are 7-5 ATS in their past 12 games as underdogs
• BUF: Bills are 5-8 ATS in their past 13 games as home favorites
• Broncos vs. Bills picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Broncos vs. Bills live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo has won all three meetings in its three-game run against Denver by at least 10 points. The Bills are 7-0 against the spread in the past seven meetings. They also have won 11 of their past 12 home games. The Broncos’ defense allows a staggering 406 yards and 28.3 points per game. Allen has had turnover issues, but is fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,423) and has 233 rushing yards and 24 total TDs.

Receiver Stefon Diggs is third with 834 receiving yards on a league-high 70 catches. He is third in receiving touchdowns with seven, and Gabe Davis has five TDs and averages 14 yards per catch. Russell Wilson could have trouble against a Bills defense that has five players with at least five sacks. The Denver quarterback has been taken down 26 times, so Leonard Floyd (7.5 sacks), Ed Oliver (five) and A.J. Epenesa (five) will be getting after him all night. See which team to back here.

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver has taken a step forward in recent weeks and comes in rested off the bye. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their past five games off a bye week and have covered in consecutive games after starting 0-5-1 ATS. The defense still ranks last in yards and scoring, but Denver has allowed 45 points over their past three games.

Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson ranks fifth in the NFL in passer rating and has 16 TD passes against four interceptions. Courtland Sutton has scored in three straight games and has 33 catches for 380 yards. Javonte Williams had a career-high 30 touches in Week 8 and had 98 total yards. The offense averages 5.7 yards per play (10th in NFL). See which team to pick here.

How to make Broncos vs. Bills picks

Severance has analyzed this matchup, and while he is leaning Under on the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Bills vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Broncos spread you need to jump on, all from the red-hot expert on a 16-5 roll on Broncos picks, and find out.