MLB roundtable: Predicting landing spots for top free agents, including Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, more

The MLB offseason is in the hands of the executives: the GMs and agents and owners with checkbooks. Athletes have some say, but they’re not truly in charge. No, this is all about the guys in suits and quarter zips now. They’re the ones who decide which free agents fit their team best, who’s worth two years, who’s worth 10 and who’s worth something in between. They’ll haggle over millions of dollars, putting a price on every home run, every strikeout.

All we can do is sit back and watch, but that’s no fun. So instead, CBS Sports’ MLB experts are looking into their crystal balls to guess where some of this winter’s top free agents will land by the time spring blooms. We’ve already prognosticated on Juan Soto, so we’ll focus on some other players in our top 50 rankings.

Corbin Burnes, No. 2

R.J. Anderson: It’s not really Mike Elias’ style to pony up for a starting pitcher, so perhaps this proves to be a silly choice on my part. (More of those to come here, I promise.) At the same time, the Orioles have the financial flexibility to do something bold, and retaining Burnes would be good optics for the new ownership group.

Mike Axisa: To be an elite team, you have to act like an elite team, and it’s time for the O’s to spend at a level more commensurate with their place in the standings. I don’t expect them to go from 26th in payroll to 1st, or even 10th, but it’s time to spend, right? Baltimore needs pitching and Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball, so there you go. A reunion makes perfect sense in David Rubenstein’s first offseason as owner.

Dayn Perry: I don’t entirely buy that the Dodgers will be heavily in on Juan Soto, but I do think they’ll make a notable addition in the service of repeating as World Series champs. They have some rotation uncertainties going into next year, and as the 2024 Dodgers acutely reminded us “rotation depth” can be a fleeting thing. Burnes is an ace and about as much of a known quantity as a starting pitcher can be these days.

Matt Snyder: There’s familiarity here with Burnes and former Brewers exec David Stearns, but that’s less important than Burnes getting set for his one big payday and the Mets looking to build out that rotation and capitalize on their run to the NLCS. They do have a strong foundation in place, but they also lost a decent number of free agents. They are in for a big offseason.

Alex Bregman, No. 3

R.J. Anderson: This is probably too cute of a choice but I’ll take a swing. (Besides, the Nationals might prefer to just wait on Brady House to slot in as their long-term third baseman.) Bregman could serve as this core’s Jayson Werth: an established veteran with postseason success who can still get the job done on the field.

Mike Axisa: The Tigers don’t really need a third baseman, but the A.J. Hinch connection is there, and Detroit does need a middle of the order righty bat. There will be other ways to get Jace Jung in the lineup. The Astros have a history of letting homegrown stars leave as free agents (Carlos Correa, George Springer, etc.) and I think Bregman is next out the door. He won’t be a career Astro like Jose Altuve.

Dayn Perry: I’ll say the Astros keep the band together for another run, and that means ponying up for Bregman on the free-agent market.

Matt Snyder: Ultimately, I think the Astros end up bringing Bregman back home and then maybe Zach Dezenzo can help solve their problem at first base. That seems safer than putting Dezenzo at third and mining the first-base market in free agency.

Blake Snell, No. 4

R.J. Anderson: Again, probably too cute. We know the Angels want to upgrade their roster in an attempt to compete next season. We know that they had some past interest in Snell. You combine those elements and maybe they end up with the high bid. 

Mike Axisa: The Patrick Corbin contract is off the books and the Nationals have a nice young talent core in place. It’s getting to be time to supplement that core with veterans, and Snell would give them a high-strikeout starter who can pitch near the top of the rotation. The Nationals have a long history of signing Scott Boras clients too. It fits.

Dayn Perry: Snell looked like his Cy Young self, generally speaking, after some early-season struggles that probably stemmed from his late signing and compromised preseason routine. As such, he’s going to be a coveted arm this winter. The Red Sox have a clear need in the rotation, and they have resources. Are they ready to actually use those resources? That’s the question. 

Matt Snyder: San Francisco already caught a glimpse of how good he can be and this reworked front office is going to be aggressive in the offseason in trying to get back in the playoffs. Re-signing Snell will be a top priority and they’ll get it done similar to how they re-upped with Matt Chapman. 

Pete Alonso, No. 10

R.J. Anderson: David Stearns doesn’t strike me as the kind of executive who will turn out to be the highest bidder on a right-right first baseman. Contrariwise, I could envision Buster Posey looking at Alonso’s track record and seeing him as a big-time run producer with the kind of raw strength needed to make an impact in San Francisco’s ballpark.

Mike Axisa: I’m with R.J. I don’t think Mets POBO David Stearns loves the idea of signing Alonso long-term, and I don’t think owner Steve Cohen waited all those years to hire Stearns just to go against his recommendation and re-sign the aging slugger. The Giants have been trying (and failing) to sign star free agents for years. I could see the new front office overpaying to get the top pure power hitter on the free agent market. They didn’t replace Farhan Zaidi just to continue slow building, right?

Dayn Perry: Houston could use a primary first baseman who offers them more than Jon Singleton does, and Alonso clears that bar. I think Alonso, as a righty-righty first baseman who’s shown some signs of decline in his top-line numbers, is probably going to be disappointed by his market. At least, though, he lands with a contender in this scenario. 

Matt Snyder: After the Mets land Juan Soto, the Yankees need to pivot for more power and first base is an area where they could upgrade.

Gleyber Torres, No. 20

R.J. Anderson: Torres had a strong postseason, to the extent that maybe he altered his market more than I’m expecting. Despite his youth, I do think it’s fair to have some concerns about handing him a long-term deal — his defense already grades poorly at the keystone and his power is almost entirely reserved for mistake pitches down the middle — but if he’s having to settle for a shorter pact then a return to the Yankees makes the most sense.

Mike Axisa: Will Wagner had a nice run late in the season, though it probably wasn’t enough to convince the Blue Jays he is The Guy going forward (plus he had knee surgery in September). Besides, Wagner has third base experience, and last I checked the Blue Jays have a potted plant penciled in at the hot corner. Torres turns only 28 in December and he finished the season very well, and he was quite good in the postseason. He’s a nice bounceback candidate for a Blue Jays team that needs to bounce back.

Dayn Perry: It wasn’t a vintage Gleyber season, but he fared better as the season went on. He’s still young as free agents go, and he still promises above-average production by the standards of middle infielders. Seattle could use any and all help they can get on offense. 

Matt Snyder: It won’t be the long-term deal he likely desires, but things will circle back, eventually, to a short-term reunion here. It’ll likely be a one-year deal with player option(s).