MLB predictions, picks, best bets: Why Yankees’ Juan Soto is primed for big ALDS Game 4 vs. Royals

Will the teams trailing 2-1 in the ALDS Thursday pull a Phillies (get eliminated) or a Dodgers (extend the series)? That’s where things stand. In each of the two games we get today, one team has a chance to punch its ticket to the ALCS while the other is looking to stave off elimination and force a winner-take-all Game 5. 

As usual, let’s grab some gambling action for these two games. 

Guardians at Tigers, 6:08 p.m. ET

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. The Kitchen Sink (bullpen game, again)

The Tigers didn’t score a run for the first 17 innings of the series. The Guardians have now gone 19 innings without having scored a run. There has been some dominant pitching in this series, to be sure, but the offenses also leave a lot to be desired. The combination of the two gives us an awful lot of scoreless innings. That’s just how this series is going to go for however long it lasts.  

The Tigers will again piece things together and the Guardians can lean heavily on their bullpen studs. To reiterate points we’ve made throughout the series, very few relievers should be worn down for Game 4, given the setup with so many off days. 

The one starter here is Bibee. He worked 4 2/3 scoreless in Game 1, only giving up four hits and a walk while striking out six. It’s reasonable to expect a similar outing both in performance and length. For those curious, he was much better on the road (2.76 ERA) than at home (4.15) this season. 

The play: Under 6.5 runs (+100)

The only thing that prevented the unders from being nailed all over the place in this series, no matter how you played them (first five, first seven, team totals, etc.) was that five-run Guardians first inning to open the series and that included an error on a grounder down the third-base line. Otherwise, pitching and defense has basically dominated the series. I suppose someone could argue poor offense, but it really doesn’t matter why. What matters is the teams just aren’t scoring. I expect that to continue. Even an uptick in production shouldn’t hurt us. The teams are averaging a combined 4.33 runs per game. We could see six and still win this one. Does it really seem like it’ll be higher scoring than 4-2? Not to me. I’m hammering the under. 

Yankees at Royals, 8:08 p.m. ET

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Cole was great in August and September, but totally uneven in Game 1 against the Royals. He allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits and two walks in five innings with four strikeouts. 

Wacha was very good most of the season and then a bit mediocre in his last two regular-season starts. Against the Yankees in Game 1, he wasn’t impressive. He coughed up three runs on four hits and three walks in four innings. 

Now, it is a different ballpark, and Yankee Stadium saw far more home runs in the regular season than Kauffman Stadium, the difference in the rest of the numbers, including runs scored, is negligible. 

The play: Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-140)

It’s a tough series to predict, but I like the way Soto has looked. Even some of his outs have been quality, such as his fly out in the first inning of Game 3, which would’ve been a home run in 17 of the 30 MLB ballparks, per Statcast. 

Soto is 3 for 7 in his career against Wacha, which includes a double in Game 1. He has three hits, a run and an RBI in this series, putting him over on this prop in two of the three games. 

He also has a great history in Kauffman Stadium, if that piques your interest. He’s a career .368 hitter with a 1.065 OPS there.