Mets, Steve Cohen miss top target, but here’s where they’ll pivot this winter with an eye on 2024 and beyond

In the end, Steve Cohen’s wealth only went so far. Thursday night Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto agreed to a record 12-year, $325 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Cohen’s New York Mets reportedly made the same offer — 12 years and $325 million with opt outs — but Yamamoto opted for Los Angeles and the 100-win Dodgers. Can’t say I blame him.

“I think the whole organization tried our hardest, and someone was going to win and someone was going to lose, and that is the way it goes,” Cohen told the New York Post after losing out on Yamamoto. “I feel good about our efforts and I left it all on the field. Life goes on.”

For the Mets, Yamamoto would have been the cornerstone piece of their quasi-rebuild. He turned only 25 in August and he has the talent to pitch at or near the front of the rotation. The Mets went 75-87 in 2023 and sold at the trade deadline, and beefed up their farm system. Yamamoto’s prime aligns well with the touted young prospects who will arrive within a year or two.

Unlike the crosstown rival Yankees, the Mets are not expected to pivot to another top free agent starter, meaning Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell. New president of baseball operations David Stearns is expected to take a more measured approach to improving the team in the short-term without bogging down payroll or the 40-man roster long-term.

To date Stearns has signed starter Luis Severino, utility man Joey Wendle, and relievers Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin to sensible one-year contracts. They also acquired starter Adrian Houser, who is a year away from free agency, and platoon outfielder Tyrone Taylor, who has three years of team control but won’t break the bank in arbitration given his role.

Now that Yamamoto has signed, Stearns and the Mets can move on to building out the rest of the roster. A roster that could be very good and contend in 2024 even though the primary focus seems to be 2025 and beyond. Here’s three steps the Mets can take next.

1. Add another starter

The Mets came into the offseason needing at least two starters and they’ve added two in Houser and Severino. There’s still room to add another starter though, and while someone like Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes would be ideal, Stearns might not want to trade from his beefed up farm system for a one-year rental. (Two years of Dylan Cease may be a different story.) 

Based on projected 2024 WAR, here are the top free agent starters expected to sign one-year contracts:

1. LHP James Paxton: 2.3 WAR
2. RHP Frankie Montas: 1.8 WAR
3. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu: 1.8 WAR
4. RHP Domingo German: 1.2 WAR

It’s a risky group — Montas and Paxton have injury concerns and Ryu turns 38 in March — but that’s usually how it works in the one-year contract market. The Mets could make a longer term play for Montgomery or Snell, or Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga, though they’re all on the wrong side of 30. They might not be the wisest signings if you’re not all-in on 2024.

Point is, the Mets need another starter behind Houser, Severino, José Quintana, and Kodai Senga. Someone to push José Butto, Joey Lucchesi, and Tylor Megill down the depth chart. With Yamamoto off the board, no free agent stands out as a “we have to have him” long-term contract candidate. Targeting upside on short-term deals seems like the best way to go.

2. Bring in a veteran bat

Maybe even two veteran bats. The Mets were dealt a blow when exciting young infielder Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL playing winter ball, which created even more uncertainty at third base. Right now, that job is likely to fall to Wendle and Brett Baty, a recent top prospect who hasn’t impressed in limit MLB time. The Mets also need a DH.

Here is new manager Carlos Mendoza’s projected lineup, as things stand:

1. CF Brandon Nimmo
2. RF Starling Marte
3. SS Francisco Lindor
4. 1B Pete Alonso
5. C Francisco Alvarez
6. 2B Jeff McNeil
7. DH ???
8. LF DJ Stewart/Tyrone Taylor platoon
9. 3B Brett Baty/Joey Wendle

We could argue about the batting order until we’re blue in the face. Those are the names though. That’s the most important thing. The Mets received a .220/.312/.403 line from the DH position in 2023 and it should — should — be easy to improve upon that in free agency. There are more DH-worthy bats than available DH positions each offseason.

A reunion with Justin Turner makes a world of sense. He’s still a very productive hitter (114 OPS+ in 2023) and he recently turned 39, so it will be a one-year contract. The Mets can plug Turner in as their primary DH and occasional third baseman, and also reap the benefits of his clubhouse leadership. Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson are other possible DH candidates.

The Mets could also splurge for a bat. Matt Chapman would certainty fit at third base, though he turns 31 in April and he has some concerning contact issues, particularly at the top of the zone. Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 after April this past season. A long-term contract would buy decline years in bulk and that’s not something the Mets need right now.

Cody Bellinger, however, makes sense. He’s only 28 and offers both contact and power, and big-market chops. Nimmo turns 31 in March. Center field is a young player’s position. Bellinger in center, Nimmo in left, and Stewart at DH would improve the team’s defense greatly, and also their offense as well. A long-term deal for Bellinger could work for the Mets.

Either way, the Mets need to add a bat. At minimum a DH, maybe a third baseman too. The Mets ranked 20th in runs and 18th in OPS in 2023, and their lineup was very top heavy at times. Maybe they spend big on Bellinger, maybe they go the one-year route with Pederson or Turner. Adding to the offense is a must regardless. 

3. Lock up Alonso

In theory, Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers is a win for Alonso. New York’s face of the franchise is a year away from free agency and the Mets now have a Yamamoto-sized wad of cash burning a hole in their pocket. It was never really a question of whether Cohen could afford an Alonso extension. Of course he can. Now there are fewer excuses to pass on an Alonso extension.

As far as we know there has been no momentum toward a long-term contract between the Mets and Alonso, though February and March is usually extension season. Teams typically spend November, December, and January improving the roster, then they get down to business keeping their own players in February and March. Alonso extension talks should pick up in spring training.

There are valid reasons to be wary of an Alonso extension. The right/right first base profile doesn’t age well, historically, though at this point I think we can say Alonso is closer to a José Abreu or Paul Konerko type than a C.J. Cron or Luke Voit (no offense, C.J. and Luke). Alonso is very good and he loves being a met. Signing him long-term seeings like a no-brainer, so do it.

The Mets are well-positioned to make a series of lower profile — but still effective — short-term additions to prop up the 2024 team and hopefully secure a postseason berth (a third wild-card team was just in the World Series, remember). Their real focus seems to be on 2025, after several big salaries (Quintana, Severino, potentially Alonso) come off the books and top prospects Luisangel Acuña, Drew Gilbert, Christian Scott, and Jett Williams will be closer to grabbing full-time roles.

Small-market teams have to bottom out when they rebuild and lose 100 games a year for several years. Big-market teams like the Mets can afford to remain competitive (or at least try to remain competitive) with short-term free agent contracts during a rebuild, and the Mets tried exactly that with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. And when things went sideways, the Mets leveraged Cohen’s wealth and ate a ton of money to trade Scherzer and Verlander, and essentially buy prospects.

Call 2024 a gap year. Cohen and Stearns clearly seem to be gearing up for next offseason (when Juan Soto will be a free agent) and beyond, though they can — and should — do it in a way that doesn’t mean sitting out 2024. They can boost the roster significantly with sensible free agents while the kids make their way through the minors. Yamamoto would have advanced the rebuild considerably, but even with him heading to Los Angeles, the plan doesn’t change. The Mets will do what they can to contend in 2024 while gearing up for 2025.