Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry fight predictions, odds, preview, undercard, start time, expert picks

When Jake Paul meets Mike Perry on Saturday, he does so with a massively lucrative November clash with Mike Tyson hanging in the balance. At least, that’s what Paul has suggested. Whether that’s true or not is still to be seen — and entirely depends on whether Perry can pull the upset.

There is risk for Paul in taking this fight. to be sure. While Perry washed out of the UFC (after a promising start as a fan-friendly brawler) with a 3-7 record over his final 10 fights in the promotion, he has found new life as the premier star for Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship. Along with finding his way in BKFC, Perry has quell many of the personal demons that seemed to be leading his life in a disastrous direction.

Perry has been able to find success, and a 5-0 record, in BKFC by mauling opponents with ungloved shots that have cut, swelled and otherwise maimed his opponents.

Still, Paul has made quite a boxing career out of fighting former UFC fighters. While he has experimented with facing the occasional “real boxer,” defeating a few club fighters and losing a moderately controversial split decision against Tommy Fury, the bulk of Paul’s meaningful fights have come against men like Tyron Woodley (twice), Ben Askren, Nate Diaz and Anderson Silva. Having now had years of dedicated boxing training, Paul has outworked and dropped all of those men who have entered on more or less a single dedicated boxing fight camp.

Paul has also taken advantage of being the larger man in those fights. While Paul has fought at the cruiserrweight limit, or at least at catchweights above the 175-pound light heavyweight limit in boxing, all of his former UFC opponents have been career welterweights (170 pounds) and middleweights (185) in the UFC, though Silva had a handful of fights at 205 pounds.

Like those previous opponents, Perry was a welterweight in the UFC and has fought at 175 and 185 pounds in BKFC, being physically undersized at 185, though built perfectly for the bare-knuckle world.

Paul will have all the physical advantages heading into the fight, standing three inches taller, with a five-inch reach advantage and a considerable weight advantage for this 200-pound fight. The weight factor is exaggerated in this fight considering Paul had been bulking up to over 200 pounds for a heavyweight fight with Tyson, which was postponed after the 58-year-old Tyson suffered an ulcer flare-up and left Paul scrambling to find a replacement opponent to keep the July 20 date intact.

Paul decided to take the risk of taking on Perry, who brings an aggression Paul has not faced yet in his boxing career. Now he has to navigate the choppy waters of an ultra-aggressive opponent who has found a nose for the big moment in recent years.

The undercard is fairly typical for a crossover boxing event with some former and current champions along with another former UFC fighter looking to make the jump. Undisputed women’s featherweight champion Amanda Serrano is in action when she takes on Stevie Morgan in the featured bout. Serrano was also expected to compete on the Tyson card in a rematch with undisputed two-division queen Katie Taylor. But with the postponement, Serrano wanted to stay active with a bout before November, especially after having her fight in March fall through on the day of the fight.

The rest of the undercard features a pair of rising prospects looking to keep their undefeated records intact when Ashton Sylve takes on Lucas Bahdi at lightweight. Sylve is the jewel of the burgeoning Most Valuable Promotions with an 11-0 record and nine knockouts. He failed to score a KO in his last appearance against Estivan Falcao, but he did dominate him to a clean sweep on the scorecards. Plus, former champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is back for the first time in three years when he takes on former UFC fighter Uriah Hall.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds for the main card before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event. 

Paul vs. Perry fight card, odds

• Jake Paul -425 vs. Mike Perry +300, cruiserweight
• Amanda Serrano -4000 vs. Stevie Morgan +1500, junior welterweights
• Ashton Sylve -295 vs. Lucas Bahdi +225, lightweights
• Shadasia Green -2500 vs. Natasha Spence +1100, super middleweights
• Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. -280 vs. Uriah Hall +215, cruiserweight

Prediction

While Perry is a legitimately dangerous opponent, it should be kept in mind that Paul and his team have been extremely careful in fight selection. There’s clearly a reason Paul feels Perry is a good opponent heading into the Tyson fight. Maybe it’s the size difference, maybe it’s that they see Perry’s reckless face-first fighting style and see an opponent that would be easy to pick apart and blast out with a big right hand. Whatever it is, Paul isn’t taking whatever small risk there is of losing out of the Tyson fight by taking on someone he’s afraid of fighting.

Perry’s power is a bit overstated at this point. The final 10 fights of his MMA career came without Perry scoring a stoppage. Though Perry has three straight TKO wins in BKFC, those have largely been the product of his bare-knuckle punches causing significant facial damage. In his most recent fight, Perry dropped 40-year-old Thiago Alves near the one-minute mark of the opening round and while Alves was able to beat the count, the fight was waived off as the referee didn’t deem him fit to continue.

Against a much larger man wearing much larger gloves, it’s hard to see Perry getting the stoppage. And Perry’s style is one that gets him hit as much, if not more, than he hits his opponents. It isn’t hard to see Paul safely boxing his way to a decision win, especially with how boxing gloves will temper both Perry’s power and allow Paul to block punches that Perry is used to connecting with in bare-knuckle and MMA. Rather than the decision, we’re predicting Paul to get the stoppage, finding a good spot to get in with some big power shots as Perry tries to charge forward and apply his aggression. Pick: Jake Paul via TKO6

Who wins Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry, and which prop is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Brandon Wise’s best bets for Saturday, all from the CBS combat sports specialist who nailed Jake Paul’s first-round KO of Ryan Bourland at +200, and find out.