How Davante Adams trade would change Super Bowl odds for Jets, Bills, Chiefs and other contenders

The NFL trade deadline of Nov. 5 is quickly approaching, and despite his ailing hamstring, the biggest prize available on the market remains Raiders receiver Davante Adams. On Oct. 1, the three-time first team All-Pro asked Las Vegas management to trade him, and multiple reports have since said the team is willing to move him. That has set off an endless guessing game trying to determine Adams’ next team. The 49ers? Bills? Chiefs? Jets? Ravens? Saints? Steelers? Some other team?

Instead of adding to the speculation, the SportsLine Projection Model has crunched the numbers and identified the teams that would benefit the most by winning the Adams sweepstakes. Let’s call it the Adams Benefit Chart.

The No. 1 team is Buffalo. The Bills, whose issues at receiver are well documented after trading No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs and letting No. 2 receiver Gabe Davis leave in free agency, could desperately use a go-to pass-catcher like Adams. Without a top receiver this season, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is completing just 60.3% of his passes, his worst since his second season in 2019, and averaging just 189.0 passing yards per game, the worst since his rookie season. Last week, in a 23-20 loss at Houston, he completed just 9-of-30 passes (30%) for 131 yards and one touchdown.

But if the Bills were to add Adams, “they go back to being an offensive juggernaut,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says Buffalo would have a 24.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl with Adams, which is up from the current 16.0% without him. The 8.9% increase in probability is the best of any NFL team.

After the Bills, the Chiefs would next benefit the most by trading for Adams. Though the Raiders are not expected to deal him to an AFC West rival like Kansas City, the Chiefs are desperate for a game-changing pass catcher after losing their top two receivers, Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice, to injury. Both will reportedly miss the rest of the season, leaving rookie Xavier Worthy as the team’s top wideout.

According to the model, Kansas City currently has a 14.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That percentage would jump 5.2% with Patrick Mahomes throwing to Adams. 

The Ravens rank third, behind the Bills and Chiefs, on the Adams Benefit Chart. In Week 2, Baltimore lost to Las Vegas 26-23 in large part because of how good Adams was that day: nine catches for 110 yards and one touchdown.

Other teams on the Adams Benefit Chart include the Saints (up 3.0% o 7.0%), Jets (up 0.9% to 1.9%), 49ers (up 0.6% to 8.0%) and Steelers (up 0.2% to 2.4%). 

While the Jets have been widely circulated as a team likely to land Adams, the numbers suggest that he would make very little impact. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been sacked eight times over the last two weeks and would benefit more from offensive line help, Oh says.

“This could be like if Scottie Pippen reunited with the Jordan Wizards,” Oh says.

As for Week 6, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Raiders and Steelers on Sunday. However, that game isn’t one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for Week 6. You can find those top-tier Week 6 NFL picks at SportsLine.