How Blue Jays standout Bowden Francis saved his season and turned into a perpetual no-hit threat

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Bowden Francis made another run at the history books on Wednesday afternoon, holding the New York Mets without a hit for the first eight innings. Francis would lose the no-no in the ninth when he surrendered a home run to Francisco Lindor; the Blue Jays bullpen, meanwhile, would subsequently blow the game, leaving him with a no-decision to show for his efforts.

Francis can take solace in knowing that he’s been brilliant as of late. Even before Wednesday’s gem, his six starts since Aug. 1 had resulted in a 1.58 ERA and 41 more strikeouts than walks in 40 innings pitched. Wednesday marked the fourth time in his last six tries that he had surrendered only one hit at the time of his removal and the second time in four starts that he had taken a no-hitter into the ninth inning.

That would be an impressive stretch for anyone, let alone a pitcher who entered this August having posted a 5.68 ERA in his first 17 outings. Just what’s behind Francis’ turnaround? Here are two developments worth knowing about.

1. Finetuning fastball control

Here’s a funny thing about Francis’ outing on Wednesday: his fastball velocity was actually down 2.4 mph from his seasonal average. Nevertheless, he continued to ride his fastball all afternoon, throwing it 57 times on 111 pitches. That shouldn’t be too surprising, as Francis’ fastball has been his most-used offering all season long. The difference between now and, say, the first half, is how he’s locating said pitch.

Specifically, Francis has done a much better job of throwing strikes with his No. 1. During the first half, 72% of his heaters went for strikes; since the All-Star Game, that percentage has skyrocketed to 79.7%. Francis has elicited swings and chases at much higher rates (nearly 10 percentage points for the former, almost 15 percentage points for the latter). His called strike percentage is up, too, but this is a case where his improvements stem from making the offering more enticing to swing at.

While that isn’t always a good thing unto itself — throwing pitches down the middle will result in a higher swing rate in a bad way — Francis’ results on his fastball are significantly better during the second half. Opponents hit .233 with a .442 slugging against the heater before the All-Star break; they’ve since hit .126 with a .330 slugging. Lest anyone think those results aren’t supported by underlying data: Francis’ fastball generated an average exit velocity of 92 mph in the first half; in the second half, that mark is down to 89.5 mph. 

Of course, the beautiful (albeit frustrating) thing about pitching is that nothing exists in isolation. The constant interplay between pitches means that an improved fastball can boost other offerings; ditto for an improved breaking ball or offspeed pitch. Do you hear that sound off in the distance? Listen. That’s the sound of a fitting segue. 

2. Experimenting with pitch mix

Francis hasn’t just refined his fastball usage; he’s also tinkered with the rest of his arsenal to find an optimized pitch mix. And when we write tinkered, we mean it. On the season, he’s thrown five different pitches; of those five, two have had usage shifts from the first to second half of more than 10 percentage points; another has morphed by around 7 percentage points. 

Let’s break it down pitch by pitch:

• Four-seam fastball: Francis chucked his heater 53.5% of the time during the first half. So far in the second half, he’s thrown it 49.5%. That’s a reduction in usage of 4 percentage points half-to-half.
• Sinker: Francis also deploys a sinker — more so now than he did early in the year. He had a 0.2% usage rate in the first half; it’s up to 4.6% in the second half through Wednesday’s outing.
• Slider: Francis’ slider didn’t begin the season as his primary breaking ball, but it has filled that role during the second half. He went from a 5.9% usage rate up to a 12.4% rate. No pitch in his arsenal has generated a higher whiff rate this season, with opponents coming up empty on more than 44% of their swings against it.
• Curveball: Francis’ curveball was his go-to secondary pitch during the first half, posting a 28.4% usage rate. That figure has dipped to 8.6% during the second half. That oughtn’t shock anyone given how opponents have hit .311 with a .600 slugging percentage against the curve throughout the season.
• Splitter: What’s replaced the curve? Francis’ splitter. He’s doubled his usage, going from 12.1% to 25%. Opponents have had a hard time taming the splitter despite seeing it more often, batting just .174 against it all year.

To summarize: Francis went from throwing his fastball and curveball more than a combined 80% of the time to a more varied approach. He now throws three pitches — fastball, splitter, slider — more than 10% of the time each. Those pitches each have performed better than the curveball, and it’s probably not a coincidence that his season started to take off once he leaned into what was working and cut out what wasn’t.

In a perverse sense, Francis might owe his second-half breakout to the Blue Jays’ disappointing season: if Toronto were in the thick of a playoff race, he may not have had the opportunity to try new things in such a meaningful way at the big-league level. That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays should be happy about their year; it does mean, though, that Francis could be a big part of Toronto’s effort to do better in 2025.