Heat vs. Pistons odds, line, spread: 2023 NBA picks, October 25 predictions from proven computer model

The Miami Heat will try to build on their second NBA Finals trip in the last four seasons when they open their 2023-24 campaign against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday night. Miami came up short against Denver in the 2023 NBA Finals, losing to the Nuggets in five games. Detroit finished with the worst record in the league last year, going 17-65. The Pistons are playing under first-year coach Monty Williams after Dwane Casey stepped down and moved into a front-office role.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday at the Kaseya Center in Miami. The Heat are favored by 9 points in the latest Heat vs. Pistons odds, while the over/under is set at 219.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Pistons vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five seasons. The model finished the 2022-23 NBA season on a 72-39 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Detroit-Miami. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

• Heat vs. Pistons spread: Heat -9
• Heat vs. Pistons over/under: 219.5 points
• Heat vs. Pistons money line: Heat: -406, Pistons: +314
• Heat vs. Pistons picks: See picks here

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has made a trip to the NBA Finals in two of the last four seasons, including last year. The Heat lost a pair of rotation players in free agency, but they returned almost all of their key players from last year’s Eastern Conference title team. They added 2022-23 Pac-12 Player of the Year Jaime Jaquez Jr. in the first round of this year’s draft, with the 22-year-old expected to make an immediate impact. 

Veteran Jimmy Butler led the Heat in scoring with 22.9 points per game last season, and he also led the team in assists (5.3) and steals (1.8). Big man Bam Adebayo returns after averaging 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. Miami has won seven of its last eight games against Central Division opponents, while Detroit lost 12 of its final 13 games last season. 

Why the Pistons can cover

Detroit is happy to open a new era after finishing with the worst record in the NBA last season. The Pistons gave Williams the richest contract in league history, worth $78.5 million over six years. He led Phoenix to a 194-115 record over the past four seasons, and he has some young talent to work with in Detroit. 

Star guard Cade Cunningham missed all but 12 games last season due to a shin injury, but he has averaged 17.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists through his first 76 games in the league. The Pistons also have second-year guard Jaden Ivey and No. 5 overall pick Ausar Thompson in their lineup. They have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against Miami, including a 4-0-1 mark on the road. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Heat vs. Pistons picks

The model has simulated Pistons vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Heat vs. Pistons, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that finished last year on a 72-39 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.