Could Juan Soto beat Shohei Ohtani’s $700M contract? Everything to know about superstar’s looming free agency

Does anyone have it better than Juan Soto? The Yankees star outfielder will spend the night of his 26th birthday (Oct. 25) playing in his second career World Series, an outcome he secured on Saturday by hitting the go-ahead home run to propel New York over the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS. It’s possible that the next couple months of Soto’s life will see him win his second World Series championship ring; reach free agency for the first time; and then, eventually, sign a contract that ranks among the richest in professional sports history — all before he resumes a career that is very, very much on a Hall of Fame trajectory. 

Again we ask: does anyone have it better than Soto? Perhaps only you, dear reader, if you’ve found this page after seeking insight into Soto’s encroaching free agency.

We get it: if you’re a Yankees fan, it’s too early to think about what comes next. Most of the league is sitting around, waiting for the offseason to begin. As such, we figured it would be worthwhile to go ahead and preview the offseason’s biggest story. With that in mind, here are some things to know about Soto’s impending free agency.

1. Who are Soto’s likeliest suitors?

It’s reasonable to assume the line for Soto’s services begins in New York. Both the Yankees and Mets, two of the final three teams left standing, are expected to be competitive in the bidding. Each New York squad can offer Scrooge McDuck-style riches, as well as a chance to be part of a perennial contender in a massive market.

Outside of New York, the teams most commonly linked to Soto are the San Francisco Giants and the Washington Nationals. 

The Giants are in the process of remaking their front office after firing top executive Farhan Zaidi and reassigning general manager Pete Putila. Giants icon Buster Posey now runs the baseball operations department, and while his exact roster-building philosophy is to be learned over the coming years, taking big swings at star players is part of the franchise’s DNA. Unfortunately, so too is whiffing on those attempts. The Giants have pursued Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, and Aaron Judge to no avail. 

The Nationals, meanwhile, are Soto’s original team. They offered him a 15-year pact worth $440 million before trading him to the San Diego Padres, suggesting they were willing to make a sizable investment to keep him in D.C. The Nationals are on a team on the rise, complete with numerous talented young players, and they have minimal long-term financial obligations. That combination makes them worth watching.

Otherwise? It’s worth mentioning all the usual dark horses: the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, and Padres. 

2. How much could Soto get?

Almost as fun as the “where will Soto sign” question is the “and for how much” follow up. Earlier this summer, we polled front-office members asking for their best guesses on the matter. Predictably, their responses ran the gamut. 

Two sources came very close to submitting identical estimates: one said 11 years and $520 million, another said 12 years and $540 million. A third source jokingly replied by saying “$1 million more than what Ohtani got.” Shohei Ohtani, of course, signed a 10-year pact worth $700 million last winter. That deal included an historic amount of deferrals, reducing its present-day value to around $437 million, according to Cot’s Contracts. That figure helps to explain why another source predicted 12 years and $432 million for Soto, putting him within shouting distance of Ohtani. And so on.

The thing to remember about these kinds of exercises is that they’re largely guesswork. A variety of factors can return a contract that exceeds expectations. Among those: a great agent (Soto is repped by Scott Boras); a generational talent (a-yup); and the structure of the deal (Ohtani’s framework being an obvious example). With those elements all working in Soto’s favor, we’d suggest betting on the over.

3. How unique is Soto’s free agency?

CBS Sports will publish our annual free-agent rankings later this fall. When we do — spoiler alert — Soto will be ranked No. 1. Here’s part of our explanation for why:

He pairs elite plate discipline with elite strength and elite barrel awareness; that triumvirate empowered him to become the first left-handed hitter in nearly two decades to record consecutive seasons in which he recorded at least 35 home runs and walked more than he struck out. How’s this for consistency: Soto has been an everyday big-league player since he was 19 years old, yet he’s never finished a season (no matter his amount of games played) with an OPS+ below 140. The dangdest thing about Soto is that, for as accomplished as he is, next season will represent his age-26 campaign. (To put that into perspective, Yankees catcher Austin Wells just finished his first full big-league season following a reasonably paced development path … and he’s only 260 days younger than Soto.)

In fewer words: players who are this talented, this accomplished, and this young almost never reach free agency. If you don’t believe us, then here’s some data.

Soto will enter the offseason with more than 36 career Wins Above Replacement to his name. That’s the 17th most through an age-25 season in recorded history, according to Baseball Reference. It’s the 10th most since Jackie Robinson integrated MLB. Here are the names of the players who amassed more WAR through that stage of their careers: Mike Trout, Mickey Mantle, Álex Rodríguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Henry Aaron, Eddie Mathews, Albert Pujols, Andruw Jones, and Frank Robinson.

You know how many of those nine players reached free agency in their mid-20s? Just one: Rodríguez. The others either played before free agency existed or signed extensions that kept them in town until later in their careers. Rodríguez was the exception. He reached free agency the winter of 2000, after his age-24 campaign. He too was represented by Boras. He ended up signing a 10-year, $252 million pact with the Texas Rangers that at the time was the most lucrative in the sport’s history and represented a paradigm shift for the industry. 

Soto is largely a player without peers. If Rodríguez continues to count as one over the ensuing months, then get ready. It’s going to be a wild offseason.