College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 4, 2023: Proven computer model backs Arkansas, Baylor

The Week 4 college football schedule is loaded with marquee matchups, including No. 19 Colorado vs. No. 10 Oregon, No. 15 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 Alabama and No. 24 Iowa vs. No. 7 Penn State. Perhaps the most anticipated matchup features No. 9 Notre Dame hosting No. 6 Ohio State at 7:30 p.m. ET. The latest Week 4 college football odds from the SportsLine consensus list the Buckeyes as -3.5 point favorites against the Fighting Irish.

Should you back the Buckeyes to cover the spread on the road, or should you back the Buffaloes to pull off a stunning upset as 21-point underdogs against Oregon? Before locking in any Week 4 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of nearly $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for Week 4 and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 4

One of the college football picks the model is recommending for Saturday: Baylor (+14.5) easily stays within the spread against No. 3 Texas in a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff at McLane Stadium. Texas might have defeated Wyoming by 21 points last week, but the game was tied heading to the fourth quarter. The Longhorns’ Week 2 win over Alabama is not looking as impressive as it once was either, as the Crimson Tide struggled against South Florida last week.

Sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers is coming off his worst outing of the season for Texas, completing 11 of 21 passes for just 131 yards against Wyoming. Baylor led in the fourth quarter against No. 12 Utah two weeks ago before blowing out LIU last week. The Bears are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as underdogs, and they are covering the spread in well over 60% of the model’s latest simulations. 

Another prediction: Arkansas (+18) plays a competitive road game at No. 12 LSU on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET. The Razorbacks are coming off a heartbreaking defeat against BYU last week, while LSU dominated Mississippi State on the road.

Despite the defeat, the Razorbacks will be confident they can keep it close on Saturday night. That’s because Arkansas is 11-4-1 against the spread in its last 16 meetings against LSU and the Razorbacks feature one of the SEC’s most dominant defenses. In fact, Arkansas is giving up just 55.7 rushing yards per game this season, the fewest in the SEC. That’s a big reason why the model has Arkansas covering the spread in over 60% of simulations on Saturday. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for Week 4

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 4, and it’s calling for several underdogs to win outright. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence, and which underdogs win outright? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned nearly $2,500 in profit since its inception, and find out.

College football odds for Week 4 top games 

See full Week 4 college football picks, odds, predictions here

Thursday, Sept. 21

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina (-6.5, 62.5)

Friday, Sept. 22

Wisconsin at Purdue (+7, 54.5)

NC State at Virginia (+9.5, 45.5)

Boise State at San Diego State (+7, 45.5)

Air Force at San Jose State (+3.5, 47)

Saturday, Sept. 23

Oklahoma at Cincinnati (+14, 60.5)

Florida State at Clemson (+1.5, 55)

Ole Miss at Alabama (-7, 55)

UCLA at Utah (-5, 51.5)

Colorado at Oregon (-20.5, 72)

Arkansas at LSU (-18, 55.5)

Ohio State at Notre Dame (+3, 54)

Iowa at Penn State (-14.5, 41.5)

Texas at Baylor (+14.5, 51.5)

North Carolina at Pittsburgh (+7, 50)