Champions League: Numbers that could define knockout stage with Man City looking sharp as Barcelona struggle

The group stage has come to a close and after many twists and turns the pool of 16 teams are set for the knockout stage draw which will take place on Monday. But before that, this is a good time to look at some of the teams that have qualified and numbers to keep an eye on the remainder of the tournament. From historic defenses to federations flexing their strength in the group stage, here are the numbers that could define the knockout stage. 

Manchester City’s xG double that of other teams

While in a way this goes without saying, Manchester City had the best performances in the group stage of any team. They may not have had the strongest group but as Barcelona losing to Royal Antwerp shows, group strength doesn’t matter when a team isn’t focused. After winning Champions League last season, City now had almost double the expected goal difference compared to the other teams in the tournament. With a difference of 14.18, City had the top xG at 17.25 (which they performed on par to scoring 18 goals) and their expected goals against number of 3.07. While City did allow just seven goals which was the eighth best number in the group stage, some of those goals came from acute angles that wouldn’t be expected to be repeated in the knockout stages. If Erling Haaland can get back to top form, there’s no reason why Manchester City can’t win back to back 

La Liga wins four groups

For the first time since the 2006-7 season when Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool all won their groups, four teams from the same country won their groups as the Spanish teams emerged triumphantly. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid all won their groups while Sevilla couldn’t make it five for five, missing out completely on European soccer by finishing bottom of their group. This may not be good history to be part of as Milan won that 2007 Champions League final as the only non-English semifinalist with all the English teams failing to deliver when it mattered most. That’s a mantle that Manchester City or Bayern Munich would love to take up if the draw allows them the chance.

Barca stink against defense that conceded 17 goals

Only losing two games in the group stage, Xavi’s men were lucky to win the group due to their head-to-head advantage over Porto. Barcelona have the worst loss in Champions League to their name as Royal Antwerp were on a path to be one of the poorest teams ever to compete in the group stage, conceding 17 goals while winning one game and losing five. But with a rotated side, Barcelona couldn’t emerge with a victory in Belgium, finishing with 10 men as Sergi Roberto was sent off. Barcelona also dropped an away game to Shakhtar Donetsk in Germany and this is a trend that could be a cause for concern in the round of 16 where Barcelona will have to play a match on the road. Not being a side that scores a ton of goals at home, if Barcelona lose their away leg it could spell a swift exit from the tournament.

Galeno has four goals, but can he score on others?

If not for losing two matches to Barcelona, Porto would’ve won the group but they’ll be more than happy to book their place in the round of 16. Where things get interesting with their attack is when it comes down to their wingers. Brazilian winger Galeno scored four goals in the group stage but all four were scored against Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk. With only one league goal to his name, Galeno needs to visualize other teams that he faces as if they’re Shakhtar and if he does, Porto may end up going on quite a run in the tournament as the talent is there.

Real Madrid’s defense xG is concerning

With an xG that’s second to only Manchester City at 15.16, Real Madrid can score with anyone in the world. The issue is that they also allowed an xGA of 7.72 as the defense is their own worst enemy. Against Union Berlin it showed as a bad clearance from David Alaba led to Real conceding a goal but as the attacks that they face get better in the knockout stages, the margin of error will become thinner. Real Madrid will be considered to be one of the contenders for a Champions League title as long as they’re in the tournament but these defensive issues could be their undoing if things don’t change soon.