Can Mets maintain playoff position after surging past Braves? Three things to know about down-to-the-wire race

Buoyed by a strong record since over the last 100 days or so and more recently an ongoing nine-game win streak, the New York Mets are back in playoff position for the first time in a long time. 

At 78-64, the Mets hold a narrow one-game lead over the rival Atlanta Braves for the third and final wild-card spot in the National League. That’s the slimmest of margins, but given the late hour – the Mets and Braves each have 20 games remaining in the regular season – it’s still quite notable. At this critical juncture, the question for the Mets, their partisans, and those thunderously opposing their efforts is: will they keep it up?

Answering such a question is difficult given the those above-noted “slimmest of margins” but we can take a look at a handful of considerations for the Mets as they try to run down a playoff spot under first-year manager Carlos Mendoza. 

They’ve been a different team since early June

The 2024 Mets reached their low watermark on June 2, when a 5-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks dropped them to 11 games under .500. They were just two months into the six-month regular season, but that’s a deep hole in any context. However, they got to work promptly with a road sweep of the Washington Nationals, and ever since the Mets have been one of MLB’s best teams. 

Since that low point noted above, the Mets are an MLB-best 54-29 with an MLB-best run differential of plus-101. Across the league, only the Diamondbacks have scored more runs since the June 2 cutoff, and over that same span the Mets rank a strong seventh in fewest runs allowed. In broad terms, they’ve been doing everything well, but it’s the offense that’s stood out. They’re second in weighted on base average, or wOBA (what’s this?), and they’ve largely earned that standing. That’s because they’re fifth in all of baseball in expected wOBA (what’s this?) over that same span. 

Specifically, shortstop Francisco Lindor has played himself into the NL MVP conversation, Pete Alonso has again topped 30 homers, and veteran DH J.D. Martinez remains a productive presence at age 37. Then there’s “sophomore” third baseman Mark Vientos. In 92 games this season, the 24-year-old Vientos has slashed .286/.341/.558, good for a team-leading OPS+ of 152, with 24 home runs. Vientos doesn’t quite have a qualifying number of plate appearances for the season (he spent almost all of the first six weeks of the season at Triple-A), but if he had then he would rank eighth in the majors in slugging and 10th in OPS+. Stated another way, Vientos on a rate basis has been one of the best thumpers in the game. He’s also got the elite quality-of-contact numbers to back it all up. 

Yes, second baseman Jeff McNeil’s regular season-ending wrist injury will exact a price, but with a 97 OPS+ and 1.5 WAR McNeil wasn’t enjoying a vintage campaign in 2024. As fallbacks go, Jose Iglesias isn’t a bad one. It’s a blow, what happened to McNeil, but it probably isn’t a crippling one. 

Elsewhere, the bullpen has been exceptional of late, and the rotation will soon get back deadline addition Paul Blackburn. As well, fallen ace Kodai Senga, who’s been limited to only one start because of a shoulder injury followed by setbacks and then a calf strain, is eligible to come off the injured list on Sept. 25 and, given his recent strides, could fill an important role to be determined over those final days of the regular season. 

The schedule ahead is difficult, but that comes with a qualifier 

The Mets in their duel with the Braves would seem to be at a disadvantage because of the remaining schedule. Here’s a look at that particular bottom line going into Sunday’s slate of contests: 

Yes, advantage Braves. They have more home games left to play and an easier docket as measured by the average winning percentage of their remaining opponents. For the Mets, they have seven games remaining against the first-place Philadelphia Phillies. The final four of those games begin on Sept. 19. That’s notable because the Phillies by that point may well have secured the division title. As well, by that point they may also be close to locking up one of the top two playoff seeds in the NL and thus a first-round bye. The Mets, while they still have mathematical designs on their first NL East title since 2015, should probably hope the Phils take care of such business soon enough and thus be prioritizing rest and health for the playoffs by the time that series arrives. Likewise, the Mets conclude the regular season with three games against the Milwaukee Brewers. By that late hour, the Brewers will almost certainly have long-clinched the NL Central title and will likely know their playoff seed. So the same applies – rest for some of their core regulars on the eve of the postseason. 

The Braves, meantime, face the Los Angeles Dodgers for three games starting on Sept. 13, and at that time L.A. will likely still be trying to lock up the NL West and secure a first-round bye. That means Dodger torpedoes will still be damned. Less certain is the Braves’ regular-season-ending series against the Kansas City Royals. It’s possible the AL Central title will still be in doubt then or even a wild-card berth, but it’s also possible the Royals will be in “stay healthy and rested” mode. Overall, the Braves probably have a schedule edge, but it’s potentially not as sharp as the table above would lead you to believe.  

We’ve intentionally delayed talk of one particularly vital series until now.

The Mets’ upcoming series against the Braves is more critical than you might think

Yes, the Mets and Braves will meet for three games in Atlanta in the penultimate series of the regular season that begins on Sept. 24 (yes, Senga may be back in time to work some of the most critical innings of the season). Obviously, this one has the potential to determine which team secures the final playoff spot in the senior circuit. As regular-season outcomes in the era of the postseason go, that’s as high-stakes as it gets (R.I.P., division races). Sure, it’s possible either the Braves or Mets barges to such a lead that the series becomes largely meaningless, but that’s highly unlikely. 

Beyond the obvious, though, there’s another layer to this series. Because of the increasingly crowded playoff calendar in tandem with the 162-game regular season schedule, MLB no longer plays tiebreaker games to determine postseason berths. Instead, tiebreaker systems are in place, and the first one – the one that will almost always be used – are records in head-to-head games. 

Speaking of which, the Mets this season are 5-5 against the Braves. That means the winner of that three-game set at Truist Park will claim the season series and thus the tiebreaker. If the Mets and Braves end the regular season with identical records – entirely possible in light of the Mets’ one-game lead – then the winner of that series will go to the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. The loser of that series, meantime, will commence their offseason long before they want to. All of this is to say that the Sept. 24-26 showdown in Atlanta may be winner-take-all in more ways than “just” the obvious one. 

Way back yonder on June 2, it seemed all but impossible that the Mets would be in position to ponder such things, but that’s the nature of MLB’s sprawling regular season – there’s time to repair almost any level of early damage. The Mets have done just that and then some. As long as it’s been, though, it’s far from over.