Brewers vs. Pirates odds, prediction, line: 2022 MLB picks, Thursday, August 4 best bets from proven model

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates get together on Thursday. The NL Central rivals face off in a matinee matchup at PNC Park. The afternoon tilt is the finale of a three-game series. Milwaukee is scheduled to start the game with Brandon Woodruff on the hill, with Pittsburgh set to deploy Zach Thompson. 

First pitch is at 12:35 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a -250 favorite on the money line, while the Over-Under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 7.5 in the latest Brewers vs. Pirates odds. Before you make any Brewers vs. Pirates picks, you need to the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters Week 18 on a 20-14 roll on top-rated MLB picks, returning almost $400 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Brewers vs. Pirates and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Brewers vs. Pirates: 

• Brewers vs. Pirates money line: Brewers -250, Pirates +205 
• Brewers vs. Pirates over-under: 7.5 runs 
• Brewers vs. Pirates run line: Brewers -1.5 
• MIL: The Brewers are 24-21 in day games 
• PIT: The Pirates are 18-26 in day games 
• Brewers vs. Pirates picks: See picks here.

Why you should back the Brewers

Milwaukee has the superior offense in this matchup, and the Brewers will also deploy a top-tier starting pitcher on Thursday. Two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff takes the ball for the Brewers, and he has a 3.55 ERA this season. Woodruff is averaging 11.6 strikeouts and 2.7 walks per nine innings in 2022, posting a 1.14 WHIP in the process. Opponents have produced a .644 OPS against Woodruff this season, and he is shining lately. Woodruff has a 2.16 ERA in the last nine starts and a 1.46 ERA since the All-Star break. Woodruff is also strong against Pittsburgh, posting a 2.86 ERA across four starts against the Pirates in 2022. 

Milwaukee’s offense is potent across the board, including a top-five mark in runs scored, and the Brewers are in the top three of the National league in home runs, slugging percentage and OPS this season. Six players have reached double figures in home runs for the Brewers, and Milwaukee’s lineup balance is impressive.

Why you should back the Pirates

The Pirates have the benefit of home-field advantage, and Pittsburgh has been notably better at PNC Park this season. Pittsburgh will deploy Zach Thompson as its starting pitcher on Thursday, and the 28-year-old right-hander posted a 3.24 ERA during the 2021 season. Thompson has allowed a .693 OPS to right-handed batters in his career, and he has performed at a league-average level across two seasons of action. 

Milwaukee’s offense also has shortcomings, including a road output that is worse across the board than what the Brewers have done at home. The Brewers also rank in the bottom five of the National League in doubles, triples and strikeout avoidance, with below-average marks in hits and batting average this season.

How to make Brewers vs. Pirates picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Brewers vs. Pirates? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Brewers vs. Pirates you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.