Biggest question facing every NBA Southwest Division team: Next level for Wemby, Zion? Can Klay push Mavs?

The 2024-25 NBA season officially tips off on Oct. 22, and while we’re still over a month away, we’re already gearing up for all the action. That means resetting things and looking at every team around the league to figure out what their outlook is once the season tips off. 

Before we can do things like predicting how team’s will fare, we have to see what the biggest questions are facing all 30 squads. We’re breaking it down division by division, and we’ve already looked at those in the Eastern Conference, contemplating everything from will the Celtics repeat as champions to if the Heat will trade Jimmy Butler. For a deeper dive on all of those divisions you can find them here:

• Biggest question for every Atlantic division team
• Biggest question for every Central division team
• Biggest question for every Southeast division team

Now we’re going to take a look at the Southwest division. We’ve got the defending Western Conference champions in the Dallas Mavericks wondering if Klay Thompson is the missing piece, to seeing if Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies can pick up where they left off two years ago. Some of these questions may not get answered until the end of the season, or even a couple years from now, but they’re worth thinking about as the 2024-25 season nears.

Mavericks: Is Klay Thompson the missing piece?

One of the biggest takeaways from the NBA Finals was that the Mavericks needed another playmaker alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. PJ Washington wasn’t impactful enough, and didn’t prove to be enough of a threat to make the Celtics change anything on defense. Neither was Derrick Jones Jr., or any of the handful of rotation players Jason Kidd threw in there to try and make something work. So they went out and got one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history. Thompson’s resume speaks for itself, and while he’s just two years removed from winning his fourth championship, he has not been the same player since missing two consecutive years due to an Achilles and ACL tears. He was once a regular All-Star and All-NBA-level talent who played great defense during the height of Golden State’s dynasty. In the years since, he’s been anything but that. 

Thompson’s coming off his worst season since his second year in the league, and while his numbers — 17.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 38.7% from 3-point range — would be a career year for most players in the NBA, his efficiency and effectiveness on defense have taken a dive in each of the last three seasons. If you’re the Mavericks, you’ll gladly take the talents of Thompson, even if they’re slightly diminished with him being five months away from turning 35. But Dallas is going to rely on Thompson in different ways than the Warriors have. He’s only ever played for Golden State and next to Stephen Curry. Will he be comfortable with primarily standing in the corner spotting up for 3s? 

There’s no doubt he’ll improve Dallas’ offense, even if his role changes under a new, heliocentric system. But we’ll have to see if Thompson’s addition will be what the Mavericks were missing when they lost in the Finals last season. They added some other nice pieces, primarily replacing the quality defense that Jones provided with Naji Marshall. They also added Quentin Grimes, who figures to be a slightly better version of Josh Green, whom they traded to Charlotte. But all the attention will be on Thompson to see if he can help the Mavericks get back to the NBA Finals, and finish with a different outcome. 

Rockets: Who does Houston want to build around?

The Rockets have a real conundrum facing them over the next two years. Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green are both eligible for rookie max extensions right now, and Jabari Smith is eligible for one next summer, but are they going to pay all those guys? Are all three even worth throwing an excessive amount of money at? 

Earlier in the summer it was reported that the Rockets didn’t think that Sengun or Green were worth max rookie extensions. That’s fine, it’s fair to have reservations under a new CBA were these massive contracts are becoming increasingly difficult to trade (just look at the Bulls). But at least one of these guys isn’t like the other, and the fact that Sengun hasn’t gotten a new contract yet is frankly, kind of wild. Sengun’s season was cut short due to injury, but prior to that he was averaging career highs across the board. He finished third for Most Improved Player, but Houston is likely using the run they went on towards the end of the year with him sidelined as a reason why they might not want to give him the full $225 million he’s able to make on a new deal. But of the young guys on the team currently — Reed Sheppard excluded — he’s the best they’ve got, but maybe Houston doesn’t see it that way. 

Green has shown promise as a high-volume scorer, but he’ll be entering Year 4 and he still struggles with efficiency issues across the board. He doesn’t figure to be an All-Star level player right now, and if the Rockets can’t foresee him blossoming into that caliber of player in the next 3-4 years, being hesitant to pay him makes sense. Especially when Smith’s extension is due next summer, who will also need to take a significant leap to warrant a max extension as well. Houston is trending in the right direction, and could be contending for a play-in spot, but they’ll need to figure out what direction they want to take this roster going forward.

Grizzlies: Can the Grizz pick up where they left off?

The Grizzlies probably watched the rise of the Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards last season and said “Oh, just you wait.” Memphis used to be the belle of the ball with Ja Morant viewed as the future American face of the league. But a lost season for Memphis swept them to the side, allowing for Edwards and the Timberwolves to fill that vacancy. But the Grizzlies will enter the 2024-25 season without a hefty suspension facing Morant, and with a healthy Brandon Clarke back in the fold. They have one of the best young cores in the league that also includes Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, and the lowered expectations of last season allowed GG Jackson to flourish. It also landed the Grizzlies Zach Edey with the ninth overall pick in the draft. Jackson will miss the start of the season after undergoing foot surgery, but when he’s healthy he showed he can be a valuable piece in the rotation after averaging 14.6 points while shooting 35.7% from 3-point range. Edey’s value is going to be determined on how Memphis uses him, because at 7-foot-4 he’s already going to be a quality rim protector. We also saw during his collegiate career that he’s a great screener, something that Morant should love in pick-and-roll situations.

But the NBA landscape is different now compared to just two seasons ago when the Grizzlies were in the championship conversation. All but three teams in the Western Conference are in the playoff hunt, and really that dwindles down to two teams — Utah and Portland — when you consider San Antonio could be a riser this year with the natural ascension of Victor Wembanyama. The Grizzlies had one of the best teams on both sides of the floor prior to last year, operating at a break-neck pace and showcasing their athleticism that starts with Morant. They haven’t lost any major players, and have actually added guys who will only add to their depth. But Memphis can’t assume they can rekindle the magic that had the Grizzlies finish second in the Western Conference in 2022 and 2023. We’ll have to see if the same formula that got them near the top of the West two times already will be fruitful once again now that their yearlong absence from contention is over.

Pelicans: Zion Williamson’s best year incoming?

Williamson played 70 games last season, a remarkable feat for someone who has only reached the 60+ games played mark just one other time in five years since being drafted No. 1 overall in the 2019 NBA Draft. Injuries have plagued Williamson’s professional career, but when he’s healthy, you could put him amongst the best 20 players in the league. The way he can change the game with his dominating presence is something very few players in the league are capable of doing, and we know he’s an All-Star level player when he’s healthy. We got a fully healthy Williamson last season, and while his numbers were career lows across the board, the Pelicans won 49 games and made it to the playoffs. New Orleans had to go through the Play-In round and their first-round series against Oklahoma City without Williamson, who was sidelined with a hamstring strain, but it was the best iteration of the Pelicans we’ve seen since they drafted Zion.

The success of last season, and it being cut short due to injury in the playoffs, should mean we could be in store for the best season from Williamson yet. While last season was viewed as the best for the Pelicans, it didn’t start out that way, as there were rumblings of Williamson being unhappy with how he was being used at the start of the season. Then there was the poor showing at the In-Season Tournament semifinals against the Lakers, in which Williamson’s weight was a topic of conversation. But after the All-Star break the Pelicans began surging, and had it not been for the untimely injury to Williamson, New Orleans would’ve put up a better fight against OKC. But since the end of the season, there’s been countless stories and pictures showing a more slimmed down Williamson, and he’s reportedly lost 25 pounds since the In-Season Tournament. Williamson’s size and weight have always been spotlighted as many wondered if his body would hold up over the course of an NBA career. But now it appears as though he’s in the best shape of his life. If that’s the case, and he’s able to stay healthy, we may witness a career year from Williamson.

Spurs: What will Wembanyama do next?

Victor Wembanyama came to the NBA as advertised in his rookie season, and by the end of the year we were having conversations about whether or not he should be winning Defensive Player of the Year. That’s just how much he impacts the game on that end of the floor. He walked away with All Rookie honors and Rookie of the Year on a San Antonio team that started to figure things out by season’s end. And during the offseason the Spurs only improved by adding Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul, the latter of whom has a proven track record of turning around rebuilding franchises, just ask Oklahoma City and Phoenix. After a rookie season with now reliable point guard who could get Wembanyama the ball where he needs it, he’ll now have a man literally nicknamed the “Point God,” feeding him the ball, as well as teaching incoming rookie guard Stephon Castle, whom the Spurs selected fourth overall in the draft.

Every move the Spurs have made this summer centers around setting up the best possible situation for Wembanyama to thrive. He managed to succeed even in a not-so-ideal environment last season, and now he has one that is better suited for his talents. That should be scary for the rest of the league, which is something Wembanyama’s already warned us about after earning a silver medal at the Paris Olympics. While San Antonio won’t be hoisting up the Larry O’Brien trophy next June, could this team legitimately challenge for the playoffs? If San Antonio is competitive that means Wembanyama has taken a gigantic leap, which would also mean he would be in the All-Star conversation and perhaps All-NBA if he really puts the league on notice. It wouldn’t be unrealistic. We saw Luka Doncic do both of those things, while finishing fourth in MVP voting in his second year in the league. Doncic was considered a generational talent when he came in the NBA, so too is Wembanyama, so the ceiling on what he will do this season feels limitless.