Astros vs. Royals odds, prediction, line: 2022 MLB picks, Thursday, July 7 best bets from proven model

Minute Maid Park hosts an American League matchup on Thursday afternoon. The Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals in the finale of a four-game set. Houston won two of the first three games, though Kansas City won on Wednesday. The Royals aim to even the series with a win on the road, with Houston aiming to continue home dominance with a 26-12 record at Minute Maid Park.

First pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET in Houston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Houston as a -355 favorite on the money line, while the Over-Under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 8 in the latest Royals vs. Astros odds. Before you make any Royals vs. Astros picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 271-232 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning well over $500 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Royals vs. Astros, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Royals vs. Astros:

• Royals vs. Astros money line: Astros -355, Royals +278 
• Royals vs. Astros over-under: 8 runs 
• Royals vs. Astros run line: Astros -1.5 
• KC: The Royals are 13-24 in day games 
• HOU: The Astros are 23-9 in day games 
• Royals vs. Astros picks: See picks here.

Why you should back the Royals

The Royals have notable strengths, even if the Astros are favored in Thursday’s game at home. Kansas City is leading the American League in triples this season, and the Royals have youthful talent and quality team speed. In addition, the Royals put the ball in play with regularity, ranking in the top five of the American League with a strikeout rate below 21 percent. 

On the run prevention side, there is reason for optimism with Kris Bubic, who is pitching much better since the calendar flipped from May to June. Bubic also threw five scoreless innings against Houston earlier this season, and the Astros are not dominating offensive metrics to the level they have in previous years. In fact, Houston ranks below the AL average right now in hits, doubles, triples, and stolen bases for the 2022 season.

Why you should back the Astros

Houston’s pitching profile on Thursday is top-notch. The Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound to begin the matinee contest, and Verlander is an eight-time All-Star and a two-time Cy Young winner. Verlander has a 2.03 ERA this season, landing near the top of the AL pecking order, and he has a 0.83 WHIP in 2022. Opponents have a hideous .527 OPS against Verlander this season, and he has been even better lately, posting a 1.65 ERA in the last five starts. 

Verlander is also facing a below-average Royals offense, with Kansas City ranking in the bottom five of the AL in runs scored, hits, doubles, home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS. Houston’s bullpen is also top-tier, ranking in the top four of the AL in ERA and wins above replacement, and the Astros also boast the superior offense, especially through the prism of power-based metrics, in this matchup.

How to make Royals vs. Astros picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the run total, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Royals vs. Astros? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Royals vs. Astros you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.