2024 NFL playoffs: Three reasons Cowboys will beat Packers, including Dak Prescott-to-CeeDee Lamb connection

FRISCO, Texas — The Dallas Cowboys have won at a rate in the past three regular seasons not seen since the 1990s Super Bowl dynasty years.

Dallas now has at least 12 wins for three seasons in a row under head coach Mike McCarthy after going 12-5 every year since 2021. This stretch marks the second time in franchise history for that to occur, joining the Cowboys’ 1990s dynasty run from 1992-1995 in which they won three Super Bowls in four seasons. 

McCarthy is the first Cowboys head coach to accomplish this feat. Hall of Famer Jimmy Johnson was Dallas’ head coach for the first two of those seasons in the 1990s from 1992-1993, but Barry Switzer was the Cowboys coach for the 1994 and 1995 seasons. 

Entering the upcoming postseason as the NFC East division champion and the NFC’s No. 2 seed, Dallas is set to host at least the first two round of the playoffs at home in AT&T Stadium, a venue in which they have 16 games in a row, including all eight this season. 

On the opposite sideline of their wild card round playoff game on Sunday is one of the Cowboys’ recent bogeymen, the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers. Green Bay has won nine of the last 10 matchups with Dallas since 2009, when AT&T Stadium opened. Two of those victories came in the divisional round of the postseason in memorable fashion: a 26-21 win at Lambeau Field in the “Dez [Bryant] Caught It” game and a 34-31 buzzer-beating victory at AT&T Stadium involving Aaron Rodgers throwing a frozen rope down the left sideline to tight end Jared Cook, whose toe-drag catch set up Mason Crosby’s 51-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. McCarthy was the head coach of the Packers for both of those postseason matchups, something he is already tired of talking about. The second of the two postseason matchups was Dak Prescott’s first playoff experience his rookie year. 

“I am not reflecting,” McCarthy said Monday. “A great game. Dak and I have spoken about the particulars of the game time and time again, and even more so when you go through different situations. There were situations in that game that came up, and now that we’re in the same offense, he can see the similarities and why we do what we do, and really the history about it. We’ve talked about that game a number of times.”

What’s different about the matchup this postseason, in addition to McCarthy switching sidelines, is Rodgers, a Super Bowl XLV champion and four-time NFL MVP, is gone, now a member of the New York Jets. However, his successor, 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love, is living up to the Packers all-time passing touchdowns leader’s standard in Year 1 as a starter. His 32 passing touchdowns in 2023 are four more than Rodgers had in his first season replacing Hall of Famer Brett Favre in 2008, ranking second in the league this season behind only Prescott’s NFL-best 36. That makes Sunday’s contest the first ever wild-card round game between the top-two outright league leaders in passing touchdowns. 

Despite many factors pointing the Cowboys’ way in this matchup, plenty of Dallas fans enter each postseason resigned to gloom and doom. The Cowboys have failed to reach the conference championship round in each of their last 12 playoff appearances, the longest such streak in NFL history. However, the players themselves have hope that this run can be different. 

“What gives me hope is just being real I know what we can do on our side of the ball, on the defensive with the guys we have, and we have four [quarterback Dak Prescott] and eighty-eight [wide receiver CeeDee Lamb],” Dallas Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse said on Monday conference call. “That’s enough hope for me when they’re playing the way that they’re playing. I believe that’s the best quarterback-receiver duo in the league, and the numbers say so as well. I just know as long as we do our part on defense, I know those guys are going to continue to cook. That’s what gives me hope. We’ve been at 12-5, and this is a fine time to break through.”

Here are three reasons why the Cowboys will finally break through in the playoffs against the Packers.

How to watch Cowboys vs. Packers

Date: Sunday, January 14 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: FOX | Stream: fubo (try for free) 
Follow: CBS Sports App   
Odds: Cowboys -7.5; O/U 50.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

1. An elite Cowboys defense powered by NFL’s best pass rush

“I felt like a stronger connection right from the very beginning and their ability to push one another and to go for it,” Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn said. “So then having to fight through some adversity early, that was [linebacker DeMarvion Overshown] that was [Trevon] Diggs, that was [Leighton] Vander Esch. Three players that were gonna have significant snaps and rolls here and to see those roles change and evolve, that’s the sign of a connected group. Because they just weren’t gonna back off to say, ‘hell, we can’t do it now they’re out.’I really respect that because they were gonna just say, ‘oh, well.’ it was just the opposite.” 

“There’s been examples of a safety coming down to play linebacker and doing that job with JK [Jayron Kearse] and [Markquese] Bell and others filling that role,” Quinn continued. “But, the one thing I really admire about them is their ability to go get it in a fight and knowing that tough parts are gonna come but you stay and hang together and that’s really one of the cool stuff there. So this is a tough group. They’ve been through fights. We were very uncomfortable with how we played at Buffalo a month ago [in a 31-10 loss]. The good that came out of that I would say was seeing us recapturing who we are and how we get it on, knowing it was going to be weeks of this. I really admire that.”

As Quinn mentioned, his defense battled through three massive injuries to players expected to be key factors in the Cowboys 2023 defense: linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (neck injury) and rookie DeMarvion Overshown (torn ACL)  plus Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs (torn ACL). Yet, Dallas defense still finished as the league’s fifth-ranked scoring and total defense. 

Cowboys defense this season

How is that possible, despite the injuries? By having the NFL’s best pass rush powered by Pro Bowl edge rusher Micah Parsons. He led the NFL in quarterback pressures (103), quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) and pass rush win rate (35.3%), which is when a defender beats his block ins less than 2.5 seconds. Remarkable considering Parsons was double-teamed on 35% of his pass rush plays in 2023, the most in the league among edge players, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. No other edge rusher was double-teamed at 30% or higher rate besides Parsons. 

That’s going to create a remarkable matchup up front with the Packers offensive line allowing a quarterback pressure rate of 30.3%, the third-lowest in the NFL this season. However, quarterback Jordan Love’s time to throw of 2.9 seconds, the 12th-fastest in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks, is over half a second longer than the Cowboys’ average time to pressure of 2.3 seconds. The reason Love likes to hold the ball a little longer is because of his deep-passing proficiency. His 39 completions of 25 or more yards this season are the third-most in the NFL trailing only 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (45) and Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (40). 

However if the law of averages holds, Love is likely to be throwing under duress more often than not, putting the league’s interceptions DaRon Bland (nine interceptions, five pick-sixes — the most in a season in NFL history) in position to make a play on the football. Advantage Cowboys. 

2. Dak Prescott’s connection with CeeDee Lamb

“I don’t think there is another quarterback and receiver that has put in as much time as me and CeeDee have, going back to the offseason,” Prescott said postgame on Sunday after defeating the Commanders. “I think he’s the best receiver in the game. I’m going to throw the ball to him in tight windows. I’m going to expect him to make one-on-one plays. He’s a hell of a player. He makes my job a lot easier. … This is really just the beginning. He’s a young player, a special player, and we’re only going to get better.”  

With the Cowboys winning 12 games to earn the NFC’s No. 2 seed with the highest scoring offense in the NFL (29.9) points per game, Prescott has a legitimate NFL MVP case, leading the league in passing touchdowns (36) while ranking in the top five in numerous metrics across the board. 

Dak Prescott this season

Much of that production came with 24-year-old wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on the other side of Prescott’s NFL-best 410 completions. Lamb broke Hall of Famer Michael Irvin’s team, single-season records for catches (135) and receiving yards (1,749) in 16 games while leading  the entire NFL in targets (181), catches (135)  and catches of 20 or more yards (29, tied with Dolphins All-Pro Tyreek Hill). 

Prescott and Lamb mark the first time the same team has had both the NFL’s leader in touchdown passes and catches in the same season on the same team. The last squad to have both was the 2007 New England Patriots with future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady and Wes Welker. That group won their first 18 games of the year before falling just short in the Super Bowl. 

CeeDee Lamb this season

*Leads NFL

In the matchup against the Packers a year ago, a 31-28 overtime road loss in Green Bay, Lamb went off for 150 yards and two receiving touchdowns on 11 catches. He will be in line for another massive day on Sunday. 

The dynamic duo of Prescott and Lamb is most lethal on the money down, third down. Prescott led the NFL in completion percentage (69%) and passer rating (116.7) on third down this season. Much of that production obviously went Lamb’s way as he was targeted 46 times on third down, tied for the second-most in the NFL behind only Bears wideout D.J. Moore. He came away with a catch for a first down on 29 of those targets, 63% first-down conversion rate. That’s tied for the second-best third-down conversion catch rate in the league with Dolphins All-Pro Tyreek Hill and trailing only 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk‘s 66.7% rate (18 third-down conversion receptions on 27 third-down targets). 

As a team, the Cowboys converted on third downs at a 48.3% rate, the second-best in the NFL trailing only the Bills‘ 49.8% rate. Meanwhile, the Packers defense — often criticized for lining up defensive backs too far off the line of scrimmage in zone coverage on third downs — allowed opposing offenses to convert third downs into first downs at a 41.1% rate, the eighth-highest rate in the entire NFL. That’s a big edge in Dallas’ favor. 

3. Home cooking at AT&T Stadium

“I would just say it’s the fans, the way you guys run into the stadium, we feel the energy,” Cowboys Pro Bowl edge rusher Micah Parsons said on January 3. “I think the fans do a great job of making us going certain counts. We’re timing up the counts. It’s a great job by the fans. Obviously, you don’t have to travel, that long travel. From Dallas, you’re getting three or four hours flights, you’re somewhere you’re not, you may not be able to get your massage, the one you get before the game. I just feel a lot better at home. That’s anywhere.”

The Cowboys are the only team to go undefeated at home in 2023, and they have won 16 home games in a row. The Cowboys lead the NFL in scoring offense (37.4 points per game), turnover margin (+10), third-down conversion rate (53.2%), point differential (+172) and time of possession (34:28).   

*Top five in NFL

Yes, the Packers are 5-0 all-time at AT&T Stadium, including a postseason win against the Cowboys and the Super Bowl XLV against the Steelers, but the bulk of those wins were with Aaron Rodgers. The 2023 Packers enter the postseason as the youngest playoff team since the 1974 Buffalo Bills with an average age of 25 years, 214 days old. No team has played a higher level of football in 2023 than the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, a tough level to reach for the league’s youngest team. 

The Cowboys have multiple, clear advantages over the youthful Packers, which is why they will finally topple Green Bay in the postseason.