And then there were four. The NFL playoffs have whittled down to the final four after a wild divisional round, and now we have Championship Sunday to look forward to which features a handful of the league’s elite clubs.
Both No. 1 seeds emerged out of their lone playoff game victorious following the first-round bye and Baltimore along with San Francisco will play host to the AFC and NFC Championship, respectively. Meanwhile, the Lions were able to fend off the Buccaneers on Sunday, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs went into Buffalo and pulled off the upset against the Bills to advance to their sixth straight AFC Championship appearance.
As we start to get a firm grasp of what the penultimate weekend in the NFL will bring, we’re going to see which way the oddsmakers are initially leaning with the opening lines for the conference championships.
Conference championship early odds
(All lines via Caesars Sportsbook)
| GAME | EARLY LINE | EARLY TOTAL | EARLY MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs at Ravens | Ravens -3.5 | 44.5 | Chiefs +140, Ravens -165 |
Lions at 49ers | 49ers -7 | 51 | Lions +240, 49ers -305 |
Notable movement, trends
Chiefs at Ravens
The Ravens are an early 3.5-point favorite as they gear up to host the Chiefs in the first game of Championship Sunday. Baltimore is 12-6 ATS on the year (including playoffs) and that 66.7% cover rate is the second-best in the NFL. At home, the Ravens are 6-4 ATS. As for the Chiefs, Mahomes just notched a win (and cover) in his first-ever playoff game on the road against Buffalo. Throughout the year, Kansas City has been a solid bet away from Arrowhead Stadium, owning a 5-3-1 ATS record. That 62.5% cover rate is tied for the sixth-best percentage in the league this year (including playoffs). Given how well both of these defenses have played this season, the Under may be a popular play by the public. However, it’s worth noting that while the Under may be 13-6 for the Chiefs throughout the year (including playoffs), it’s just 4-5 when they are on the road. At M&T Bank Stadium this year, the Over is 5-4-1 for the Ravens.
Lions at 49ers
The 49ers are currently a full touchdown favorite over the Lions at the time this piece is being written. San Francisco did narrowly escape the divisional round against the Packers and will get another NFC North club rolling into Santa Clara on Sunday. One of the big questions for this game will be the health of Deebo Samuel as the 49ers star receiver exited their playoff game against Green Bay early due to injury. As his status comes more into focus, this line could change. This season, no team has been a better bet against the number than the Lions. They enter the NFC Championship 13-6 ATS, meaning they’ve covered a league-best 68.4% of their games. The new wrinkle for Dan Campbell’s team this week is that they’ll be away from Ford Field for the first time this postseason. During the regular season, Detroit was 7-2 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Niners are just 3-6 ATS at Levi’s Stadium this year (including playoffs). As for the total, which stands north of 50, the Over is 12-7 in Lions games this year, but just 5-4 when they are on the road. San Francisco has an identical 5-4 record with the Over in its home games.
