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2024 NFL Draft: Ranking J.J. McCarthy, other first-round QB picks based on college performance formula

Written by on April 26, 2024

2024 NFL Draft: Ranking J.J. McCarthy, other first-round QB picks based on college performance formula

How a college football expert ranks the historic group of six first-round quarterbacks in 2024

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A historic six quarterbacks were selected in the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft on Thursday, tying a draft record. It’s the fewest overall picks for six quarterbacks selected in NFL Draft history. 

The six selections were as follows:

  • Round 1, Pick 1: Caleb Williams, USC (Chicago Bears)
  • Round 1, Pick 2: Jayden Daniels, LSU (Washington Commanders)
  • Round 1, Pick 3: Drake Maye, North Carolina (New England Patriots)
  • Round 1, Pick 8: Michael Penix Jr., Washington (Atlanta Falcons)
  • Round 1, Pick 10: J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (Minnesota Vikings)
  • Round 1, Pick 12: Bo Nix, Oregon (Denver Broncos)

That’s how the NFL teams rank a sterling crop of collegiate quarterbacks, but how about me

In 2012, I created a formula that I hoped would predict a quarterback’s success in making the jump from college to the NFL. It’s not perfect, but it can be helpful. The formula rates quarterbacks on throwing ability, not rushing. It’s broken down into three categories: against top-50 defenses, third-and-long/fourth-down situations and the red zone. After shoving all those numbers into the machine, it spits out a score for each player. That score is then taken and compared to the average score of the quarterback class being graded, which is added to the list of all the quarterbacks rated in the past.

Here’s how those six quarterbacks rank in what we call the Fornelli Rating:

RankQuarterbackSchoolFornelli Rating2023 Stats
1Caleb WilliamsUSC8.98%3,633 yards, 30 TD, 5 INT
2J.J. McCarthyMichigan7.64%2,991 yards, 22 TD, 4 INT
3Jayden DanielsLSU2.93%3,812 yards, 40 TD, 4 INT
4Bo NixOregon1.84%4,508 yards, 45 TD, 3 INT
5Drake MayeNorth Carolina0.25%3,608 yards, 24 TD, 9 INT
6Michael PenixWashington-0.26%4,903 yards, 36 TD, 11 INT

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The post 2024 NFL Draft: Ranking J.J. McCarthy, other first-round QB picks based on college performance formula first appeared on CBS Sports.


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